Mares Chase 2021

[Craigy14]

Haha, absolutely.

To elaborate slightly, it isn't that I don't think a horse trained by Willie Mullins cannot win this race, they absoltuely can. What we can almost guarentee though is that Willie Mullins will have the favourite?

If we/you agree with that, it makes the race a little less appealing ante post - as there are almost no scenarios I can imagine whereby Annie Mc goes off favourite. I think given connections, even if she was winning relevant Mares Chases over here, on the day of the festival she'd still be a backable each way price against a 'Mullins Mares'...

It is the same with horses that others like, Happy Diva, La Bague Au Roi - any of the 'British' based Mares have such a limited ante post appeal because of Mullins' record... does anyone truely believe Happy Diva would go off single figures for this race? A 10 year old handicapper? She may well be a decent 'each way' bet on the day or something, but I believe you're living in a fantasy world if you think Happy Diva at 10yo would be beating Willie Mullins Mares at Cheltenham Festivals...

I agree with all that Kev, was more as a bet at 20/1 given the regard she seems to be held in she ‘could’ be a good antepost bet.

Mullins will more than likely have the favourite but just looking to try and find some value elsewhere.

I think Annie Mc could be the best of the British if she improves one what she’s done to date. She was nowhere in the Marsh but for them to take that chance, she must have been doing all the right things otherwise he surely could have got her placed elsewhere at the festival?

The top of the market is a bit of a joke for this race, hence why looking a bit further down.

[Craigy14]

If Annie Mc wins the Mares Chase, I'll do a poll.... and I'll either get a Paul Gadd tattoo, or get pegged.





Nothing wrong with discussion, fight your corner

Apologies, I wrote before I seen your response, was meant to be more tongue and cheek forgot the emoji

[archie]

Every time i look at this race Robin De Carlow jumps off the page and slaps me around the face just like Mrs Somer does for looking at younger woman in town on a Saturday night

On other threads I've noted that Robin De Carlow had a setback while being prepared for Galway. The situation is unchanged from this post on the Mares Hurdle thread on 30th July:

"Robin De Carlow update - progressing well but it will be another couple of months before we'll have a better idea of when/if she'll be back."

What I would add (on an entirely personal basis) is that there's no guarantee that she'd go for this race even if she was fighting fit next March, with handicaps and even hurdles not completely ruled out in my mind.

[somer1]

On other threads I've noted that Robin De Carlow had a setback while being prepared for Galway. The situation is unchanged from this post on the Mares Hurdle thread on 30th July:

"Robin De Carlow update - progressing well but it will be another couple of months before we'll have a better idea of when/if she'll be back."

What I would add (on an entirely personal basis) is that there's no guarantee that she'd go for this race even if she was fighting fit next March, with handicaps and even hurdles not completely ruled out in my mind.

Cheers Archie. Will keep getting bitch slapped till nearer the day.

[Lobos]

Haha, absolutely.

To elaborate slightly, it isn't that I don't think a horse trained by Willie Mullins cannot win this race, they absoltuely can. What we can almost guarentee though is that Willie Mullins will have the favourite?

If we/you agree with that, it makes the race a little less appealing ante post - as there are almost no scenarios I can imagine whereby Annie Mc goes off favourite. I think given connections, even if she was winning relevant Mares Chases over here, on the day of the festival she'd still be a backable each way price against a 'Mullins Mares'...

It is the same with horses that others like, Happy Diva, La Bague Au Roi - any of the 'British' based Mares have such a limited ante post appeal because of Mullins' record... does anyone truely believe Happy Diva would go off single figures for this race? A 10 year old handicapper? She may well be a decent 'each way' bet on the day or something, but I believe you're living in a fantasy world if you think Happy Diva at 10yo would be beating Willie Mullins Mares at Cheltenham Festivals...

............Gordon's grade 1 winner Shattered Love though as a 10yo beating Willie Mullins Mares at Cheltenham Festivals is another story.......

[billymag]

I thought wed already sorted out that 10 year old mares with G1 wins have to be on the downgrade (re Benie V Honey) and assumed to only regress Lol

[Lobos]

I thought wed already sorted out that 10 year old mares with G1 wins have to be on the downgrade (re Benie V Honey) and assumed to only regress Lol

Absolutely. That's why they need to drop into a Grade 2 Mares Chase to find their right level.

[Saxon Warrior]

Maire Banrigh retired to become a broodmare.
Story in Racing Post today.

”Top-class mare Maire Banrigh has made a remarkable recovery from a career-ending fall in the Arkle Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, with connections now looking forward to her new career as a broodmare.

The eight-year-old, formerly trained by Dan Skelton, was in contention for the Grade 1 before crashing out four from home. She suffered a leg injury following the fall and has been retired from racing.

Maire Banrigh was treated at the Newmarket Equine Hospital before returning to Shaw Farm Stud, where she was looked after by Lisa Hales, daughter of her owner John Hales. The six-time winner was in the field for the first time since her injury earlier this week, with connections delighted with her progress“.

[taylorch1990]

Big shout out to Joleg for giving us a heads up on this last week to cash out while we could. This is the reason I love this forum so much so many people with more knowledge than I have that are willing to share and help us all out.

[Saxon Warrior]

Three bookies on Oddschecker still quoting Maire Banrigh after the Racing Post story says she is out of training.

Hope they rectify that in the next 24-hours. (Unibet, 365 & Bet Victor).

[Lobos]

Big shout out to Joleg for giving us a heads up on this last week to cash out while we could. This is the reason I love this forum so much so many people with more knowledge than I have that are willing to share and help us all out.

Here, here. Would have bet her without that info.

[Istabraq]

Three bookies on Oddschecker still quoting Maire Banrigh after the Racing Post story says she is out of training:

There’s a clown outfit on oddschecker who have Samcro quoted in their RSA betting.
Oddschecker need to take some responsibility with these errors...

[The King Pimm]

I’ve backed Happy Diva & Shattered Love for this race so far just because their prices were so big for what they’ve previously achieved so far at Cheltenham. I would be surprised and disappointed possibly if they did win but they are currently the best horses on paper in the market at 20 & 25/1 which is great value. I think this market will change quite a bit as the season develops and hopefully we’ll see a few Mares who have been campaigned over hurdles given a go at fences because of this new race. Apart from the current market leaders I’m struggling to see who may break through though?? The only one I can think of is Posh Trish for Paul Nicholls but she has disappeared off the face of the Earth?? Has Henderson, Nicholls or Alan King got any Mares who could feature??

[Kevloaf]

I’ve backed Happy Diva & Shattered Love for this race so far just because their prices were so big for what they’ve previously achieved so far at Cheltenham. I would be surprised and disappointed possibly if they did win but they are currently the best horses on paper in the market at 20 & 25/1 which is great value. I think this market will change quite a bit as the season develops and hopefully we’ll see a few Mares who have been campaigned over hurdles given a go at fences because of this new race. Apart from the current market leaders I’m struggling to see who may break through though?? The only one I can think of is Posh Trish for Paul Nicholls but she has disappeared off the face of the Earth?? Has Henderson, Nicholls or Alan King got any Mares who could feature??

It's probably unlikely that too many Novice Chasers end up here... I think the trainers with a bit of foresight (that have genuine plans to win the race) will have gone Novice Chasing last year.... I imagine that's why Salsaretta is currently fav, and why Elimay has already have a season chasing etc...


I do think you're right though that the market will change quite a lot.... I hope so at very least, as the thought of Salsaretta being fav for 12 months and winning a festival race is about as exciting as watching re-runs of Heartbeat.

[Saxon Warrior]

I really like ELIMAY’s profile in this race, and she was following in the footsteps of another Willie Mullins mare going through the Mares Graded Novice Chase programme before the season shut down.

She won the same Grade 3 MNC at Clonmel in December, with a 5lb better RPR than Vroum Vroum Mag, and on ELIMAY’s chasing debut (where VVM had already won a Novice Chase earlier in the season).

Elimay then went on to the Grade 2 MNC at Thurles in January and posted a 6lb better RPR than Vroum Vroum Mag did when she won the race.

Her two Chase wins have both produced the best RPR gained in both of the races in the last ten years.

Elimay didn’t have chance to carry on the path that VVM did, when she won a further Grade 3 and Grade 2 win, which by the end of the season was 5 wins in a row and she had an RPR in the final win at the Punchestown Festival that was 3lb better than Elimay achieved in her two Chase wins.

Another winner of the December Mares Novice Chase Grade 3 at Clonmel in recent times was Gordon Elliott’s Shattered Love, who won it in her Novice Chase season with a RPR 4lb lower than Elimay produced on her chasing debut in the race last season.

Shattered Love went on to win a further Grade 3 and Grade 1 Novice Chase against the boys before lining up in the Marsh Chase at Cheltenham and winning it by 7 lengths from Terrefort.

Shattered Love was given an official rating of 144 by the British handicapper when declared for the Marsh Chase, whereas Elimay already has an official rating in Ireland which is 3lb higher at 147.
The Irish are usually more lenient with their ratings, so it would seem that Elimay after 2 races is already officially rated 3lb better than Shattered Love was rated, the day she lined up and romped home in the Marsh.

ELIMAY’s 3yo hurdles form was based around three Listed/Graded runners-up runs behind Whetstone, who as a 4yo the following season racked up 4 Graded Novice Chases on the bounce (2 Grade 3’s, a Grade 2 and a Grade 1) finishing with an RPR of 151.

Overall at this stage, of the Mares who have already been chasing last season in preparation for the Mares Novice Chase this season, for me she is the standout one, and trained by Willie which is always a bonus.