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Cheltenham Festival Roll-Ups

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  • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

    I think a system based approach is a good way to go at it Rob. If you have something that's profitable, and your aiming at the right horses at or towards the head of the market to keep the chances high at the other end, I'd say you have as good a chance as any to make it work.

    I don't have a system like this so my approach is to rely on patience and discipline, which probably means I'll make less bets but also make a lot less money than your approach will.
    it's all about analysis of what works for you isn't Specs?

    For me I noticed that the shorter priced multiple festival winners I had in multiples, so was at the mercy of everything that comes with that. I just wasn't getting payout when your Altiors, Douvan's etc went in. And I'm a smaller stakes punter, so I'm not the guy to drop 50 points to get 100 back in the week itself.

    So last year I used this approach to work towards getting 30+ point returns off those guys, and imo it made a huge difference to my book, but also just my mindset - knowing one goes in and 2.5 days are covered? Really helped me focus on the other races.

    So yeah, rolls up to go "I've got 66/1 on Appreicate It in the Arkle!! BOOOOM" can get in the bin. But as a tool in the arsenal to build the return I'm after on select horses? V helpful imo, but you gotta use your noodle

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    • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

      That's true KS, but how do you decide when to do it, and how do account for the lost stakes if you are writing off every other loser because it's not associated to your antepost Festival betting?

      Surely it makes sense to make the decision before the event of the first leg, or perhaps split stakes. Say half into your general betting fund, and the other on half on your roll-up.

      Only you know whether you are profitable on your football doubles. If you are it's a good approach, and if your not it isn't.
      I guess it’s just not an approach I find useful. I have 1 pot for Cheltenham,1 for national hunt racing outside of Cheltenham and 1 for everything else all recorded to identify what I’m doing right or wrong. The roll up angle doesn’t work for me personally, if I want to back a horse for Cheltenham I would just back it rather than attempt roll up after roll up. What happens if you keep losing the roll ups? Do you now not back said horse for Cheltenham or in some cases you’ll completely miss the price?

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      • I love the roll ups, ive lost about 50 sonce the start of the summer chasing a honeysuckle single..i landed her the other day and need her for 480 now so unless you dont get silly with it they are without a doubt useful..im
        now chasing bob olinger single and elimay mares chase single if i get em on board then it takes the stress away and you can focus on your other options

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        • Originally posted by Kautostar View Post
          I don’t really get roll ups if I’m being honest to me it’s just a way of cheating yourself into thinking you’ve got value or a bigger price on a horse. Just have two pots 1 for ante post and 1 for other betting. If your double on say 2 football teams wins then decide if you want to put those winnings on an ante post bet for Cheltenham.
          Sometimes you waste more funds trying to get a treble rolling onto something than it would have cost just to back the horse in the first place.
          Your point about potentially losing more than if you just put the singles on is valid, but it's very much self discipline, which is a key to betting in general.

          I use American Football bets on roll ups a lot, a spread bet is typically 10/11, so you have to absolutely lump on to see proper returns from singles which I don't believe is worth the risk, and often there will only be 1 or 2 I fancy. So rather than winning a couple of quid I use it to make a 20/1 a 30/1 etc. I don't really consider it kidding myself if they lose because I a) track them and b) probably save myself from potentially bigger loses than if I played them as a single!

          i was also massively burned last year as I spent 6 months rolling up Trump to win the presidency with Cheltenham winners at brilliant prices, so well aware the risk!

          Side point - I don't solely use roll ups as my diary will attest.

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          • As a very small stakes punter, I take a similar approach to HF. I don't often bet day to day, and if there's something I fancy, I don't see much point putting my small stake on a 6/4 shot etc, therefore I chuck them in a rollup

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            • Originally posted by ryanh97 View Post
              As a very small stakes punter, I take a similar approach to HF. I don't often bet day to day, and if there's something I fancy, I don't see much point putting my small stake on a 6/4 shot etc, therefore I chuck them in a rollup
              Im of the same making. I have X amount of pounds to bet weekly on whatever i like. Most of my named horses for a certain race are in winning doubles (Tend to stick to 6/4 or above) But do have a few where the price i took went for a walk but won which is nice.

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              • Originally posted by Kautostar View Post

                I guess it’s just not an approach I find useful. I have 1 pot for Cheltenham,1 for national hunt racing outside of Cheltenham and 1 for everything else all recorded to identify what I’m doing right or wrong. The roll up angle doesn’t work for me personally, if I want to back a horse for Cheltenham I would just back it rather than attempt roll up after roll up. What happens if you keep losing the roll ups? Do you now not back said horse for Cheltenham or in some cases you’ll completely miss the price?
                Yep in some cases you just completely miss the price, but in my case I'm trying to get the bigger prices covered in festival multiples at the same time anyway so hopefully I at least partially have them covered. For what it's worth, I'm basically the same as you in terms of pots: I have a 200pt pot for everything Cheltenham related (including roll ups) and then my other pot for weekend racing. Placing a single on any given horse and manually rolling the winnings onto the next doesn't sit well with me. I've been banned from too many accounts for having tenner singles so it would be impossible for me to get any kind of decent roll up on manually without putting my account in jeopardy

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                • I think it's fairly simple. Putting selections (horse/football, NFL) that are over priced with ante post horses that are over priced will pay off long-term.

                  If the roll up selections and ante post horse are around the correct price you'll tend to break even long term
                  if both are under priced you'll lose long term

                  It's hard to put a price on the enjoyment these kind of bets can bring though.
                  ​​​​​

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                  • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                    I think it's fairly simple. Putting selections (horse/football, NFL) that are over priced with ante post horses that are over priced will pay off long-term.

                    If the roll up selections and ante post horse are around the correct price you'll tend to break even long term
                    if both are under priced you'll lose long term

                    It's hard to put a price on the enjoyment these kind of bets can bring though.
                    ​​​​​
                    To change the subject, i was just wondering if after your win you proper smashed into something with more money then you usually would..after i won my mates were all like..have a grand on so and so but i was never tempted i think you gotta just be who you are stake wise..was just wondering if you just thought fuckit at any point and proper booted the arse out of one

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                    • Originally posted by Ray View Post

                      To change the subject, i was just wondering if after your win you proper smashed into something with more money then you usually would..after i won my mates were all like..have a grand on so and so but i was never tempted i think you gotta just be who you are stake wise..was just wondering if you just thought fuckit at any point and proper booted the arse out of one
                      I've got a fair bit built up on Galvin for the national in various bets but most of that has been drip fed throughout the summer.

                      It isn't really my style to go and put a bet if that size on. Not sure I'd enjoy the experience and my record with my maximum bets is hardly inspiring

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                      • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                        It's hard to put a price on the enjoyment these kind of bets can bring though.
                        I think that's it for me. I just see it as an occasional bit of fun. Outside of Cheltenham antepost I rarely bet, but this weekend i'm genuinely looking forward to Ascot for example so will probably have a few small stakes 'fun bets' for that doubled up with something for the festival. It's important not to take it seriously all the time, if any come in it'll feel great and it'll give me more to look forward to in March. If i'd backed them as singles on their own then it wont be to a level that'll make any difference to life, likewise if they don't.

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                        • Interesting couple of pages with the variation in the thread. My approach with roll ups is different to everyone else’s by the looks of it.

                          I only do them if I’m absolutely sure that A) the rollup selecfion will win and B) if it’s one I want to get in the book for Cheltenham but is abit short for a free bet.

                          So last year I did about 15-20 rollups and I believe 2 lost. Most were around 1/2 or 1/3 in price I’d imagine and were either on the Caribbean Cricket as a single or a Snooker bet or an NFL bet. Nothing other than those three. And all were free bet roll ups to boost something from say 5/1 to 9/1.

                          Also worth noting I did one other rollup totally different to the above on Trinbago to win the CPL outright just because I’d lumped the single, half of the forum seemed to have followed me in on it anyway for roll ups and it was quite obviously value. 7/2 was about to be 13/8 hours later so was worth throwing in with a few Cheltenham selections. This was the only one that wasn’t free bets either as far as I can remember.

                          So far for this season I’ve done two roll ups. Both are trebles with USA for the Ryder Cup and Aussies for the Ashes. Both just won’t lose (USA have already done their bit) so were worth throwing together at around 11/10 the double. Think I’ve trebled them with Honeysuckle in one bet and Envoi Allen in the other (on the back of the monkfish news that was). Asides from that, resisted the temptation for roll ups. Had one CPL fancy that would’ve been good for rollups but had no Cheltenham horse I wanted in the book. And I never do them for the sake of it so left it alone.

                          I do think this thread is a success overall though. Plenty of winners in here. Different strategies work for different people and whilst I’m not going to be one who places a rollup every day for Cheltenham across the year, it’s still interesting to see all the different approaches take place.

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                          • What do people make of Trueshan’s price for the opener at ascot tomorrow? To me I’m baffled that on all known form he is not a good bit shorter? But I wouldn’t watch or take too much interest in flat racing as a rule, however considering sticking him in a couple of roll ups as like I say looks good value

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                            • Originally posted by ToniC View Post
                              What do people make of Trueshan’s price for the opener at ascot tomorrow? To me I’m baffled that on all known form he is not a good bit shorter? But I wouldn’t watch or take too much interest in flat racing as a rule, however considering sticking him in a couple of roll ups as like I say looks good value
                              For me, depends how soft it is and how much Longchamp took out of him. I think Snowfall is similarly longer than expected - probably for the same reasons?

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                              • Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
                                So far for this season I’ve done two roll ups. Both are trebles with USA for the Ryder Cup and Aussies for the Ashes. Both just won’t lose (USA have already done their bit) so were worth throwing together at around 11/10 the double.
                                You should be safe with the Ashes bet MoM, no Joffra no Stone no Stokes, Jimmy and Broad leading the attack and no spinner.
                                They're taking a Lions squad to Oz in case there's a Covid outbreak so they can fulfil tests, this has the look of the weakest England Ashes squad I can remember.
                                Good to see you back fella...

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