Foxhunters Chase 2021

[Istabraq]

Look no further than Grittar, the winner of the Cheltenham and Aintree Foxhunters in 1981 who went on to finish 6th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup the following year and then won the Grand National a few weeks later.

Grittar – the hunter chaser who won the Grand National, Weatherbys Point-to-Point, Weatherbys Point-to-Point

https://www.pointtopoint.co.uk/news_articles/grittar-the-hunter-chaser-who-won-the-grand-national

I don’t know the history of Grittar, other than his National win as I’m delighted to say I was still a primary school kid in 1981, but from what you say he won the Foxhunters then went onto bigger things ?
There have been a few that have started by winning a Foxhunters, Cappa Bleu, Kingscliff spring to mind, who step up in class thereafter, my point from the earlier post was that horses don’t start in the professional sphere them land here as they regress and win a Foxhunters, Pacha de Polder aside...

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I don’t know the history of Grittar, other than his National win as I’m delighted to say I was still a primary school kid in 1981, but from what you say he won the Foxhunters then went onto bigger things ?
There have been a few that have started by winning a Foxhunters, Cappa Bleu, Kingscliff spring to mind, who step up in class thereafter, my point from the earlier post was that horses don’t start in the professional sphere them land here as they regress and win a Foxhunters, Pacha de Polder aside...

Norton’s this is a bit like your response to Kev asking when was the last good horse that won at Hereford and you gave some names from 1903 or something. Surely when you have to go back this far it kind of supports the point you are debating...haha

Shantou Flyer made a nice enough transition when runner up to Hazel Hill a couple of years back. The angle can be quite nice as their any race price is priced up as if they aren’t switching to this discipline so the angle makes sense to me.

[Nortons who]

The only thing I know about Hereford is that's where the SAS comes from. It is my namesake Nortonscoin who is the Hereford guru, I just happen to have an interest in the Foxhunters and backed Grittar to win the GN (decent pub kitty that Saturday I recall ).

In terms of winning Foxhunters who didn't come from the P2P sphere, there aren't many but Sleeping Night for Paul Nicholls was one example of a highly rated non P2P convert. A French recruit who achieved a Chase OR of 168 in the Peterborough Chase in 2001 and then won the Foxhunters in 2005.

As Istabraq mentions, the trend of winners coming from a P2P background is very strong, wth 27 of the last 32 winners having started out in P2Ps. Also relevant here is that only one winnner from an ex Handicap background who achieved an OR of greater than 140 has won this race since 2005 and that happens to be Pacha Du Polder, twice!

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The only thing I know about Hereford is that's where the SAS comes from. It is my namesake Nortonscoin who is the Hereford guru, I just happen to have an interest in the Foxhunters and backed Grittar to win the GN (decent pub kitty that Saturday I recall ).

Haha...apologies I got my Norton’s mixed up. Was only messing as love all the historical references

[Kevloaf]

Can’t have TWE after that. Poor jumping and had to work extremely hard just to place. Still requires another run, probably in not ideal conditions, just to make the start line. Will be knackered come the second circuit at Cheltenham.

I've backed him, and I'm with you


Not the next run and then beng knackered, that's silly, loads of hunter chasers get to the race with similar preps....


Just on what he's shown, it's a clear case of "backers" seeing positives that might not be there. Or "aren't" there, if you're braver than me.




I ask again, has ANYONE backed The Worlds End after today?

For backers, when the inevitable silences comes to that question, ask yourself whether it really is, 'job done'? Cos that was shite.

[Magpie]

I only had a few quid on TWE to win today and at.Cheltenham, more to.protect my other bets on the race. Gods knows why, as i have never rated it. I wont be backing it again, as I just dont think it knuckles down to its task. Can I ask what you thought of Highway Jewell Kev?

[Kevloaf]

I only had a few quid on TWE to win today and at.Cheltenham, more to.protect my other bets on the race. Gods knows why, as i have never rated it. I wont be backing it again, as I just dont think it knuckles down to its task. Can I ask what you thought of Highway Jewell Kev?

Thoght she was good.... I would have her in a match over TWE given at Cheltenham it's over 2f further and she finished best.

It's not ridiculous TWE could reverse the form, but whilst they're the same price I'd rather back the one I've seen show better form at that same price...

[Magpie]

Thanks Kev, have a little wager on HJ, happy to keep it live and not cash in.

[Middle_Of_March]

Just got round to watching the race and I’m actually pleasantly suprised. Having read the comments on here, I was expecting TWE to have ran a stinker beaten 20 lengths comfortably. Which.. at least would’ve meant he had one of his two qualifying runs.


Instead he’s been beaten a length and a half on ground where he would’ve preferred it on the quicker side. In a race where they got strung out quite a lot down the back and he had to be ridden into contention on a track notoriously quick. The extra couple of furlongs and the hill, on better ground too.. and I think he’d be bang there.

Whack another qualifying run into him and it’s all roads to Cheltenham.

Edit - Happy to let that 1 point on HJ run for a bit longer too and can reassess nearer the time. Definitely think a few at the top of the market are vulnerable and ones I’d want to take on.

[Quevega]

People still using the ground as a reason this horse will improve.

Always amazes me how something can stick for so long if it suits, and can act as a false crux.

[Middle_Of_March]

People still using the ground as a reason this horse will improve.

Always amazes me how something can stick for so long if it suits, and can act as a false crux.

I agree that the ground is too easily used to make excuses for some horses. However... sometimes there’s a clear gulf in form on soft ground or good to soft. The difference is key. Addeybb on the flat being an obvious example.

The thing is though.. it’s relevant with TWE too.

On ground deemed soft or heavy, he tends to run badly other than once in a blue moon. He’s won 3 from 13 on soft or heavy over hurdles and fences - albeit one of those was the worst grade 1 of all time when L’Ami Serge literally gave the race away like the rogue he is. 3/13 over obstacles really isn’t good for a horse proven at Graded level. Only 4 of those starts on soft/heavy was in grade 1 races as well. With 1 Grade 1 win on the ground (the aforementioned Long Walk).

Now looking at his form on good to soft or good.. 11 runs and 5 wins. Including the Albert Bartlett at the Festival when falling 2 out when absolutely cantering all over them. So it might even have been 6/11. He then went to Aintree and won a Grade 1 on good ground. Of those races, again 4 of them were in Grade 1s. Again he won a grade 1 on good to soft or better (the aforementioned Aintree race).


Based on that, surely you must concede he’s a better horse on better ground.. but that in general he will go on the ground. Just that he’s a better horse on better ground, no matter what the race level is that he’s at.

[Quevega]

I agree that the ground is too easily used to make excuses for some horses. However... sometimes there’s a clear gulf in form on soft ground or good to soft. The difference is key. Addeybb on the flat being an obvious example.

The thing is though.. it’s relevant with TWE too.

On ground deemed soft or heavy, he tends to run badly other than once in a blue moon. He’s won 3 from 13 on soft or heavy over hurdles and fences - albeit one of those was the worst grade 1 of all time when L’Ami Serge literally gave the race away like the rogue he is. 3/13 over obstacles really isn’t good for a horse proven at Graded level. Only 4 of those starts on soft/heavy was in grade 1 races as well. With 1 win on the ground.

Now looking at his form on good to soft or good.. 11 runs and 5 wins. Plus the Albert Bartlett at the Festival when falling 2 out when absolutely cantering all over them. He then went to Aintree and won a Grace 1 on good ground. Of those races, again 4 of them were in Grade 1s. Again he won a grade 1 on good to soft or better.


Based on that, surely you must concede he’s a better horse on better ground.. but that in general he will go on the ground... just that he’s a better horse on better ground, no matter what the race level is that he’s at.

I've been here before.
So I'm not delving into the numbers again.
He lost races mostly cos he wasn't good enough. IMO
And had a particularly bad season after his novice season.
When stepped up in class.

When he had a better third season all on heavy or soft, the trainer was then saying he needs it softer these days as he's got older !!
His three runs that season were the best of his career, and all on Soft or worse.

It's bullshit, and his action is actually very rounded.
So I don't buy the numbers game and I didn't when me and Kev had a discussion about it a couple of years back.

And when it's good to soft.
Is it more good or soft ?
And who's side of the argument is that on ?

I've noticed you've chosen that it's on the Good side.

And how much softer is Soft vs Good to Soft ?, or Soft (good to soft places)

He used the ground as an excuse in his second season over hurdles when he didn't step up in class (which many don't). And it's stuck in peoples minds.

I agree that some horses do develop better form overall on extreme grounds though, just not as many as people think, and they are often self fulfilling anyway.

[Nortons who]

I thought that Porlock Bay might wait for Musselburgh on Saturday but has been declared for Wincanton today :

DECLARED
Today:3:20 Wincanton 3m1fJockey:Lorcan Williams (Last 14 days: 0-3,0%)Comment:Useful jumper at up to 2m3f in France; impressive point debut at 2m4f; trip/ground query

As indicated in the Racing Post comment above, the trip / ground [Heavy] might not be suitable but PN probably just looking for top 4 finishes at this stage to qualify.

For info, Shantou Flyer (also mid table in the betting for the Foxhunters Chase) is declared to run in the 2:10 Handicap Chase on the same card, which is not a Hunter Chase. This could mean either of two things: 1). They are using the race as prep for the GN for which SF is entered or 2). Connections are using merely as a warm up for the Cheltenham Hunter Chase since SF will already have qualified based on past 2 seasons P2P / Hunter Chase results.

If SF becomes a non runner today, he is slso declared in the 4m at Musselburgh on Saturday, which presumably would openly advertise connections intentions in favour of the GN.

[Nortons who]

For The Worlds End backers, comments below published in the Sporting Life from Olly Murphy


There was another big upset in the Willougby De Broke Open Hunters’ Chase when 40/1 chance Latenightpass held the rally of Highway Jewel by three-quarters of a length under Bridget Andrews. The Worlds End, trained by Olly Murphy, went off the 5/4 favourite, but was another length back in third.

Murphy said: “He ran fine. He was beaten by two better horses on the day and he had a very hard race today, so we’ll get him back and make a plan. But I don’t think they’ll be too exciting now for a month’s time.

“Whether he’ll be going to Cheltenham now I don’t know, but he’s run fine. People think these things are gimmes but they’re certainly not.

“I don’t know whether we freshen up and go there or go somewhere else. We’ll speak to Max McNeill and the guys and see where we go from there."

[Lobos]

Surely the horse to take out of yesterday's race would be the winner ?? He's won 7 out of his last 10 and is 2/2 over regular fences with one of those victories being on the Hunters Race champions night at Cheltenham last April. He won cosily and was giving weight to the 2nd and 3rd yesterday and is only 8 years old so plenty of improvement to come potentially. A bit like It Came To Pass last year, he could be the forgotten horse this. I'll definitely be having a saver on him on the day and hopefully he too goes off 66/1.