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Foxhunters Chase 2021

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  • Foxhunters Chase 2021

    As this race stands alone and there have been a few posts about it already, I thought it would be appropriate to start its own thread.

    CHELTENHAM FOXHUNTERS CHASE

    The Amateur Gold Cup run over the same Course and Distance as the Gold Cup.

    ENTRY CRITERIA

    Class 2, £45,000 total prize fund. New Course, Cheltenham, 4.10pm, Friday, March 19, 2021, three miles and two and a half furlongs (3m 2f 70y). For five-year-olds & upwards which since October 1, 2018, & before March 1, 2021, have been placed first or second on two occasions in a hunters’ chase in Great Britain or Ireland or have won two Open chases at Point-to-Point Meetings (i.e. Gentlemen’s, Ladies’ or Mixed Open Races) in Great Britain or Ireland or have won one Open steeple chase at a Point-to-Point Meeting in Great Britain or Ireland and have been placed first or second in a hunters’ steeple chase. Weights: 5-y-o 11st 12lb; 6-y-o & up 12st; mares allowed 7lb. Entries close March 2, six-day confirmations March 13, final declaration 10.00am, Wednesday, March 17. Maximum 24 runners.

    Note : Horses that have won a Class 1 or 2 contest in the 15 months prior to 1st January aren’t eligible to run in Hunter Chases in the UK.

    UPDATED : Latest wording on this clause on BHA webste, governing Point to Point Hunter Chases.

    On or after October 1st, 2019 has been placed first, second or third in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Steeple Chase in Great Britain or Ireland or in any other steeple chase run outside Great Britain or Ireland which in the opinion of the Authority is the equivalent of a Grade 1 or Grade 2 steeple chase.

    UPDATED : NEW QUALIFYING CRITERIA PUBLISHED JANUARY 2021 SECIFICALLY FOR 2021

    The BHA has announced new race conditions for the two hunter chases at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals to reflect the recent cancellation of point-to-point racing in Britain and Ireland.

    The St James's Place Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham, often referred to as the amateurs' Gold Cup, previously required horses to have either finished in the first two in a hunter chase on two occasions or won two open point-to-point races, or one of each, within the previous two and a half years.

    Now, a new condition has been added to allow horses who finish in the first four on two occasions in a hunter chase between January 20 and March 1, 2021 to qualify.

    The same new conditions apply to Aintree's Randox Foxhunters' Chase, which is run over the Grand National fences, with the qualification period extended to March 22.

    Both sets of rules apply to this year only and horses who are already fully qualified for either race do not need to requalify with the additional conditions. If a horse has had one run which qualifies, only one further run which qualifies is required.


    TRENDS AND STATISTICS

    In the last 73 runnings of the race since 1946, around 25% of winners have been age 9 but this race at the festival is one where older horses have a reasonable record.

    Winners by age since 1946:
    Age 6 = 3 wins
    Age 7 = 10 wins
    Age 8 = 13 wins
    Age 9 = 18 wins
    Age 10 = 12 wins
    Age 11 = 10 wins
    Age 12 = 4 wins
    Age 13 = 3 wins

    Repeat Winners

    In those 73 runnings, 6 horses have doubled up the following year and this has occurred twice recently with On The Fringe in 2015 / 2016 and Pacha Du Polder in 2017 / 2018. Hazel Hill was attempting to make this 3 double winners in a row in 2020 but was unfortunately withdrawn on the morning of the race due to injury.

    Both On The Fringe and Pacha Du Polder were 11 years old when winning the race for the second time, which bodes well for It Came to Pass if he attempts to retain his crown in 2021.

    Those looking for younger selections might be encouraged to know that 25 of the last 30 winners were less than 11 years old.

    27 out of the last 32 winners came from a traditional Point to Point background, rather than entering Hunter Chasing after NH careers over regulation fences.

    As is often the case, previous Festival Form is a positive particularly if selections have run in the race before. For example, 6 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 the previous year.

    A FEW MENTIONS AT THIS EARLY STAGE

    The 2020 winner It Came To Pass was an impressive winner and could attempt to follow up in 2021. Despite being age 11, recent history shows it can be done.

    The 2020 runner up Billaway, has already been mentioned as likely to have another go in 2021 and his Trainer Willie Mullins seems keen to add this race to his CV. Billaway will be 9 next year.

    David Maxwell Owner / Amatuer jockey remains passionate about Hunter Chasing and in recent years has purchased some quality ex Graded winners and handicappers (eg Shantou Flyer) which are then placed with Paul Nicholls. For 2021 David Maxwell will be hoping to finally lift the Cheltenham Foxhunters trophy and will have a few mounts to choose from. Cat Tiger was mentioned in November 2019 as a long term plan but there is also Bob and Co, plus whatever else David Maxwell might purchase between now and then.

    J P McManus achieved success in this race most notably with On The Fringe and had 2 runners in 2020 which made the top 5 (Staker Wallace, Minella Rocco). It will be interesting to see if they continue or whether JP brings a younger horse into the HC ranks.

    PAST RACES

    A few which stand out in my memory :

    1992 - Rushing Wild storming to victory. https://youtu.be/N4_jDzUOzhM (fast forward to 7 minutes in for closing stages)

    1995 - Fantus, also trained by Richard Barber doing the same https://youtu.be/OgtLI8XLfkI (fast forward to 7 minutes in for closing stages)

    2013 - Salsify, successfully defending his crown but with a massive dose of help from Oscar Delta. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...3S9wmB_CvCjRB3
    Last edited by Nortons who; 2 June 2020, 07:47 AM.

  • #2
    Good write up NW.

    Not everyone’s favourite race but usually carries stronger trends than most, however, there will be the usual scrum in February to get horses qualified so not easy to build a value book until you know what the opposition will be.
    That said there is a bias towards horses who have come through the Hunter Chase sphere as opposed to horses whose careers have been in regular rules racing.

    Billaway as good a shout as any at this early stage...

    Comment


    • #3
      Who is pricing this race up?

      Comment


      • #4
        William hill

        8/1 It Came To Pass

        10/1 Billaway

        Those as first 2 in betting

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
          Who is pricing this race up?
          Billy Hills had about half a dozen horses quoted a few days back...

          Comment


          • #6
            Cheers chaps.

            Just had a quick glance, and although I probably wouldn't get involved too heavily in the race the one that stands out for me is Bob And Co @ 20/1 (can be boosted).

            An absolute nut job last season, extremely keen, but hadn't been with Nicholls too long prior to his debut. With a full season under his belt with PFN you'd likely think he'll settle a lot better, which could bring out some amount of improvement, as he was still winning races racing so keenly.

            He will surely be David Maxwells' ride this time around, as Shantou Flyer, although consistent, has surely had his chances.

            I don't have issues with him staying, Fontwell is a demanding track and he won there, although the form wasn't held up at the festival, but he is by Dom Alco and out of a mare who produced his full brother, Vezelay, of which that one produced his highest racing RPR over 3m 3f, so I'd not be concerned on that front, but he will need to settle and mature (despite currently being 9 already).

            Comment


            • #7
              Why isn't 2019 winner Hazel Hill quoted?

              Missed the race this year at the last minute?


              Is he okay? In training etc?


              Won't speculate on what price he'll be but he's without a doubt on my shortlist as I thought he was the one to beat this year too to follow up.




              Good opening post NW

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                Why isn't 2019 winner Hazel Hill quoted?

                Missed the race this year at the last minute?


                Is he okay? In training etc?


                Won't speculate on what price he'll be but he's without a doubt on my shortlist as I thought he was the one to beat this year too to follow up.




                Good opening post NW
                Will be 13 next season. On the figures for age for the race, that NW posted above, that makes him just over 4% to be victorious. Tough ask. Also on the back of a defeat by Minella Rocco, whose Cheltenham run somewhat put a dampener on the form line. Shantou Flyer, whom Hazel Hill beat at the festival the previous year was then 15 lengths behind the winner this year, again, suggesting, IMO, that the form probably wasn't worthwhile or the horse has regressed. Obviously likely to be zero improvement from a 13 year old.

                I would love to side with him, for old times sake, but my honest assessment is that he probably won't be what he was. You'd want a pretty big price to find out also, I'm thinking 33's+.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Billaway for me. Connections already said they are coming back for another go so that's a massive plus. I get the feeling they think he should have been closer this year (not the greatest of rides imo) . He'll be the right age and is still relatively inexperienced so there is likely to be improvement to come. Previous runners have a very good record in the following years race so he has a lot going for him. 10/1 is very fair. I like.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                    Will be 13 next season. On the figures for age for the race, that NW posted above, that makes him just over 4% to be victorious. Tough ask. Also on the back of a defeat by Minella Rocco, whose Cheltenham run somewhat put a dampener on the form line. Shantou Flyer, whom Hazel Hill beat at the festival the previous year was then 15 lengths behind the winner this year, again, suggesting, IMO, that the form probably wasn't worthwhile or the horse has regressed. Obviously likely to be zero improvement from a 13 year old.

                    I would love to side with him, for old times sake, but my honest assessment is that he probably won't be what he was. You'd want a pretty big price to find out also, I'm thinking 33's+.
                    Yes fair enough, they're good points.

                    I was anticipating him to have stepped forward a lot from the Minella Rocco run but even so it's certainly not a positive.

                    The price would have to be around 33/1 I suppose, so I guess him not being quoted isn't as big a shock as I've made out.... however, he was the favourite for the race until he was withdrawn and if he'd have obliged we'd be talking about a dual winner who'd be a helluva lot shorter and 100% in the market!


                    So, he will stay on my shortlist for now.... and I'll hope to get an update on his status.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Didn't realise there was a market for this - nice. It is not a race I get particularly stuck into but Billaway looks reasonably priced to me at 10's. Will add at some point over the coming months

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        There have been plenty of big price winners of this race in the last 10 years so it's another race I'll be serving until 2021.

                        The type of race where I certainly don't get carried away. Often a placepot buster for me.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I liked the quote by Mullins after Billaway came 2nd in the foxhunters

                          Wilie Mullins, commented: "We came here hoping he could do this, but we have a bit more work do.

                          "My owner [Mr J Turner] has just seen the trophy for the St James's Place Foxhunter Hunters Chase, which is the most magnificent trophy of all week. He has gone up to measure it so he can order his new sideboard for the trophy next year.

                          "We will bring this horse back. Hopefully he might have a little more experience next year. We will hope to go one better next year.

                          "I think he could improve with experience and improve with his jumping."

                          Jockey, Patrick Mullins, added: "It went very well. Everything went to plan. He settled well and jumped fine on the whole. We just ran into one on the day. He [It Came To Pass] beat us last year at Cork in April. I really looking forward to coming back next year with him."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Fatjockey69 View Post
                            I liked the quote by Mullins after Billaway came 2nd in the foxhunters

                            Wilie Mullins, commented: "We came here hoping he could do this, but we have a bit more work do.

                            "My owner [Mr J Turner] has just seen the trophy for the St James's Place Foxhunter Hunters Chase, which is the most magnificent trophy of all week. He has gone up to measure it so he can order his new sideboard for the trophy next year.

                            "We will bring this horse back. Hopefully he might have a little more experience next year. We will hope to go one better next year.

                            "I think he could improve with experience and improve with his jumping."

                            Jockey, Patrick Mullins, added: "It went very well. Everything went to plan. He settled well and jumped fine on the whole. We just ran into one on the day. He [It Came To Pass] beat us last year at Cork in April. I really looking forward to coming back next year with him."
                            Really fancy Billaway for the reasons quoted above and the stat of returning beaten horses in the race the following year. Already backed him in a single @ 10/1 but feel I need to focus more on him. Just stuck him in a double with Al Boum Photo.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I want him onside too, and I'm frustrated that only William Hill have a market.

                              I'm also surprised the others don't. All they need to do is price up the usual suspects and take the money in. Why price up the Mares Chase and not the Foxhunter for example? It doesn't quite compute in my head.
                              Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                              Comment

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