Ryanair Chase 2021

[Spectre]

No arguments from me. I've made the case for him a couple of times now. He's the best value horse in all the markets.

[Craigy14]

I’ll definitely be looking to back IA on the day if a drift decent enough is about. Annoyed I didn’t back when he was 25/1 at the start of the season.

Happy to forgive the fall last time, his jumping is brilliant, sounds stupid saying that after a fall but he really is great to watch. Part of that is accompanied by how good Bass is as well. Few have mentioned how he’s becoming a real fav jockey.

I get people can knock the form etc but as we keep saying, can only beat what’s in front of you, he’s done that, so feel digging him is potentially the same as digging other horses. Digging ABP because the gold cups haven’t been up to scratch. So what he’s won 2 in a row I get those are slightly different examples but I think it highlights you can only beat what’s in front of you.

He’ll need to potentially step up again, he may not, the other improvers might be shit, Min is getting on a bit he may underperform. Melon doesn’t like to win. So many ifs and buts.

His price is fairly short now, but as my first paragraph states I think 25/1 for an improver for the season back then was a good bet imo. Certainly a lot more appealing than Allaho at 10/1.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to. Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough (indeed Mr Fisher finished more than 4 lengths behind the mighty Samcro in the Marsh). That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won a race since 2019. Also connections have been talking all season about a tilt at the Gold Cup with him - which hardly inspires confidence in this race?

Samcro has form figures at Cheltenham of 1 and 1, both over mid trip distances. If you’re concerned about whether he makes the start line at all, the 14/1 NRNB Sky are offering is more than fair. For those that like a gamble the 20s (before boost) that WH are offering might float your boat.

In a market where you can rule out plenty, or knock big holes in, the top 10 in the betting, I think Samcro is a stonking bet. The first whiff of positive vibes from the yard and he’s going into doubles too.

There - that’s better

Not sure about that re Mr Fisher. Yes he got beat around 4 lengths, but that was as a 6yr old on soft ground with a self critical ride. Every chance that 4 lengths disappears this time imo. Although Mr Fisher has form on soft, his trainer has always said hes better on good-good/soft, and will need that in this company. Nico openly said he got it wrong last year and will be much more positive on him this time, as he was in his last run.
So a more positive ride on decent ground and a year older, i am expecting a big run.

[Garrison Savannah]

Not sure about that re Mr Fisher. Yes he got beat around 4 lengths, but that was as a 6yr old on soft ground with a self critical ride. Every chance that 4 lengths disappears this time imo. Although Mr Fisher has form on soft, his trainer has always said hes better on good-good/soft, and will need that in this company. Nico openly said he got it wrong last year and will be much more positive on him this time, as he was in his last run.
So a more positive ride on decent ground and a year older, i am expecting a big run.

He’s not good enough and he has Nico up top - not got a lot going for him has he

[Ice]

After reading this thread i am now convinced nothing is going to win the race!

[Carnage at Taunton]

He’s not good enough and he has Nico up top - not got a lot going for him has he

Well he may or may not be good enough, but I do know a horse is entitled to improve for a different ride in different conditions. And what’s wrong with Nico?

[opatcho]

Well he may or may not be good enough, but I do know a horse is entitled to improve for a different ride in different conditions. And what’s wrong with Nico?

I was very close to backing Mister Fisher last night, I had a post drafted and the bet sat in the betting slip waiting for the green light

decided against it.

I think he’s a grade 2 horse, not sure he has actually improved

my biggest concern is the trainers form, apart from Shishkin and Champ (who still has question marks) he really doesn’t have much this season

I do think Mister Fisher is the best GB has in this race but I would be shocked if there wasn’t an Irish horse to beat it

[Carnage at Taunton]

I was very close to backing Mister Fisher last night, I had a post drafted and the bet sat in the betting slip waiting for the green light

decided against it.

I think he’s a grade 2 horse, not sure he has actually improved

my biggest concern is the trainers form, apart from Shishkin and Champ (who still has question marks) he really doesn’t have much this season

I do think Mister Fisher is the best GB has in this race but I would be shocked if there wasn’t an Irish horse to beat it

I am not sure he’s improved either, but i think it’s probable he will on ground he prefers with a more positive ride. I genuinely feel that they did not get the best out of him last March and that they let the horse down with the tactics, wel that’s what the jockey said and i believe that.
Agree the Irish and I personally think Melon is the most likely winner, but I will have MF on my side and watching the race I think I will be glad of that.

[Istabraq]

Mister Fisher strikes me as a horse who will go close a few times then pop up in a valuable handicap somewhere, I personally don’t see him winning a Ryanair or any G1 in his career, could easily be wrong of course.

This reminded me of a recent discussion about how easy it is to blag stewards, this taken from his Paddy Power run, worth noting that 2 of his 3 career wins have come on the same ground:

’Midfield, not fluent 8th, struggling after 4 out, weakening when pulled up after 3 out (trainer said the gelding was unsuited by the going, which was officially described as Soft on this occasion and would prefer a faster surface; vet reported that the gelding lost its left-fore shoe) (op 5/1)

[charlie]

Mister Fisher strikes me as a horse who will go close a few times then pop up in a valuable handicap somewhere, I personally don’t see him winning a Ryanair or any G1 in his career, could easily be wrong of course.

This reminded me of a recent discussion about how easy it is to blag stewards, this taken from his Paddy Power run, worth noting that 2 of his 3 career wins have come on the same ground:

’Midfield, not fluent 8th, struggling after 4 out, weakening when pulled up after 3 out (trainer said the gelding was unsuited by the going, which was officially described as Soft on this occasion and would prefer a faster surface; vet reported that the gelding lost its left-fore shoe) (op 5/1)

Pretty much my thoughts exactly

[Kevloaf]

doctorwu

Mister Fisher won The Peterborough Chase, so he literally can't win can he?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mister Fisher strikes me as a horse who will go close a few times then pop up in a valuable handicap somewhere, I personally don’t see him winning a Ryanair or any G1 in his career, could easily be wrong of course.

This reminded me of a recent discussion about how easy it is to blag stewards, this taken from his Paddy Power run, worth noting that 2 of his 3 career wins have come on the same ground:

’Midfield, not fluent 8th, struggling after 4 out, weakening when pulled up after 3 out (trainer said the gelding was unsuited by the going, which was officially described as Soft on this occasion and would prefer a faster surface; vet reported that the gelding lost its left-fore shoe) (op 5/1)

Yes, he has won on soft, but his trainer maintains hes better on better ground. They can get away with it against lesser opposition, but against the best they need everything in their favour, especially last year when he was a younger horse up against experienced rivals that would not have been out of place in the Ryanair.
He was still only 4 lengths off them as it was.
I aint saying he wins, i aint even saying he places, but i am saying hes entitled to improve for age, ground and a different ride.

[doctorwu]

doctorwu

Mister Fisher won The Peterborough Chase, so he literally can't win can he?

You took the words right out of my mouth

[Supermaster]

In recent years this has become a fascinating high quality race and a major highlight of the whole week. This year's field could be similar but as with the CC it all depends on who runs.

Maybe the experts will know better but does the ante post price indicate where a horse will run. For example Allaho is 4/1 co favourite with CPS but Allaho is 25/1 in the Gold Cup yet he has decent form at both distances. CPS is much shorter for the CC. So do we conclude that Allaho runs here whereas CPS runs in the CC? It would be great to know.

Imo Allaho is a steal at 25/1 in GC but a shorter price than Min here? Allaho does not have the same level of form as Min and lacks Min's experience. A live outsider in the GC but not worth being a favourite in this high quality race.

I was impressed by Imperial Aura's defeat of Galvin in last year's festival and Galvin has franked the form. Kemboy and Altior may not run in this. Fakir gets beaten too often for me but has definite place claims.

Clondaw Castle and Kalashnikov have both franked Mister Fisher's last course win. Saint Calvados ran well last year and was unlucky in the King George
Samcro seems out of form but has won well twice at the Festival. The stable is under a well known cloud.

Dashel Drasher is in fantastic form but I wonder if the Ascot race will leave its mark. Al Dancer is talented but inconsistent. Aso seems to be coming back to form.

A lot of these could run well and I expect a very competitive race so long as there are not too many defectors.

Likely winner: Min, Imperial Aura, Mister Fisher, Saint Calvados
Outsider: Aso
Wild Outsider: Riders on the Storm

[Kevloaf]

You took the words right out of my mouth

It must have been when you were kissing me?