Ryanair Chase 2021

[Garrison Savannah]

Totally, mentioned it a few days ago - may have been longer.

IA is/was an awful fav coming in after a fall and no real back form. If you’re backing him it’s because you’re hoping he’ll improve rather than you expect him to. Allaho is a good horse but is he a great one or even a very good one? Unlikely. He’s one of those Ryanair horses that isn’t good enough for the GC or the CC so he’s being tested at 2 1/2 in hope rather than expectation. Min has been a terrific horse but coming in off the back of a PU, is possibly about to regress and no 10 year old has won this in a decade. Melon, we all know will finish 2nd. Fakir D’oudairies and Mister Fisher simply aren’t good enough (indeed Mr Fisher finished more than 4 lengths behind the mighty Samcro in the Marsh). That leaves me with Saint Calvados and Samcro. I really like Saint Calvados but the facts are he hasn’t won a race since 2019. Also connections have been talking all season about a tilt at the Gold Cup with him - which hardly inspires confidence in this race?

Samcro has form figures at Cheltenham of 1 and 1, both over mid trip distances. If you’re concerned about whether he makes the start line at all, the 14/1 NRNB Sky are offering is more than fair. For those that like a gamble the 20s (before boost) that WH are offering might float your boat.

In a market where you can rule out plenty, or knock big holes in, the top 10 in the betting, I think Samcro is a stonking bet. The first whiff of positive vibes from the yard and he’s going into doubles too.

There - that’s better

[Nortons who]

I'm going to stick up for Imperial Aura here, having made various positive comments in this thread about him and I won't desert him now.

Everything was going swimmingly until his fall LTO but connections have made excuses for this (or reasoned why this happened) due to a shadow just before the fence.

Prior to Kemboy having recently been confirmed for the Gold Cup, he was one I was most definitely concerned about, since based on past trends the 3 which stood out to me were Imperial Aura, Kemboy and Allaho.

Although I have already backed Allaho there has been mention on here that he might have insufficient experience, which actually is corroborated to a degree by one of the trends, namely that 10 of the last 12 winners have had at least 7 chase runs (Allaho has 6) and at least 4 chase wins (Allaho has 2).

I'm not saying Imperial Aura will definitely win the Ryanair but so long as the LTO fall doesn't have a negative impact then from a trends perspective he ticks all of the following boxes and must be in with a leading chance.

# 11 of the last 12 winners were Age 7-9.
# 11 / 12 had an OR of 161 or higher
# 11/ 12 had won a graded race G1-3
# 10 / 12 were in the Top 3 in the betting.
# 10 / 12 had run at least 7 chases and won at least 4 of them
# 10 / 12 had won at least 1 chase that season

Finally a few extracts from points I made previously in post #73:

In the 16 runnings, the Favourites have won 5 times (including 1 Joint Favourite) and been placed 6 times (2nd x 4 , 3rd x 2). Backing these Favourites at SP win only 1 point level stakes would have incurred bets of 17 points with a return of 17.58, resulting in a meagre net profit of 0.58 points.

The pre race Official Rating of the Winner has ranged from 155 to 176 (Vautour), averaging 164.5. Four of the first 5 runnings of the race were won by horses rated in the 150s but none since 2009, so the OR has drifted upwards averaging 167.5 since then.

7 year olds have statistically won more races but overall the Age range 7-9 has won 69% of races and the last 9 renewals.

The numbers of returning runners in the Ryanair (averaging around 2 per season) seem quite low to me and backing them all blindly at SP 1 point win level stakes would have incurred bets of 33 points with only 21.33 in return. [This year only 3 are currently entered which ran in the race in 2020 : Min, Riders On The Storm and Saint Calvados].

Based on the evidence to date there is an 80/20 probability that the 2021 Ryanair Chase winner won't have run in the race in 2020.

[Quevega]

When you have a current champion like Min.
You're hoping they all improve on the day, and over the season.
Cos they need to to beat an on form Min. (or close to it)

Who has and Who hasn't ?
since the novice season.

Samcro certainly hasn't, he's actually been dropped a couple of pounds.
Some of the others that people are hoping improve, already have done, just not by enough yet.

[ToniC]

When you have a current champion like Min.
You're hoping they all improve on the day, and over the season.
Cos they need to to beat an on form Min. (or close to it)

Who has and Who hasn't ?
since the novice season.

Samcro certainly hasn't, he's actually been dropped a couple of pounds.
Some of the others that people are hoping improve, already have done, just not by enough yet.

You’re definitely making a leap of faith backing Samcro. However I think it’s a justified one (as a backer) as he’d been poor last season (and the season before) and had issues and they got him back right for the JLT. You’re essentially backing him with faith in the trainer based on past exploits with the horse, rather than any form this season. I’m not sure how good last seasons JLT was, I certainly think Allaho would have won it, so even if coming to the race in similar form I don’t think he’d have a favourites chance, but I do think he’d probably be in say the top 3 or 4 in the market, depending what turns up.

[Quevega]

You’re definitely making a leap of faith backing Samcro. However I think it’s a justified one (as a backer) as he’d been poor last season (and the season before) and had issues and they got him back right for the JLT. You’re essentially backing him with faith in the trainer based on past exploits with the horse, rather than any form this season. I’m not sure how good last seasons JLT was, I certainly think Allaho would have won it, so even if coming to the race in similar form I don’t think he’d have a favourites chance, but I do think he’d probably be in say the top 3 or 4 in the market, depending what turns up.

He rewarded the faithful last year.
And I agree.
There are horses like this that just perform better at Cheltenham.
He could be one of them.

[Bonjers]

The weather forecast is certainly looking in his favour. I'd be astonished if he wasn't on the boat.

[darlojim]

Has anyone seen any quotes regarding Fakir post DRF? Unlikely to turn the tables with CPS in the champion chase and think he would go very close in this.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll be looking at laying Imperial Aura for a place come race day.

I just don't get it, with him. Yes, he's a multiple course winner, but for me that's where the positives end.

He's beat some seriously out of form horses this season, and it's not as if he's been hammering them either. He's had a far from ideal prep run now after that strange mistake LTO.

He's 1pt bigger than last season Ryanair winner, and 2pts shorter than the 2nd. His best form this season is beating Itchy Feet who can't jump for shit, and had a miserable time going back over hurdles since.

Which is the better form?:

Beating Itchy Feet (rated 155) by 5 lengths in a Grade 2 Chase with just 4 runners in? (Imperial Aura)

Finishing 3rd behind horses rated 168 (Kemboy) & 167 (A Plus Tard) in the Grade 1 Savills Chase by 2 lengths? (Melon)

Finishing 2nd and 8 lengths behind a horse rated 174 (Chacun Pour Soi) in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase? (Fakir D'Oudairies)

Now, I've only picked the best form from their individual seasons, and I've only selected three horses, for comparison, but we know the race is going to be harder than that, but there are two above, that, IMO, are plenty enough ahead of Imperial Aura without even considering the rest of the opposition. I'd probably have Allaho's beating of Elimay ahead of Imperial Auras win against Itchy Feet at this point too, although the figures suggest this isn't the case.

Unfortunately we have a host of horses that go into the race on the back of poor or unfortunately circumstances too, so knowing how they go is anyones guess. That list consists of Min, Saint Calvados, Samcro and of course Imperial Aura himself.

Anyway, assuming all the potential challengers turn up, I've now made my bed and it won't be long before I have to lie in it, and deal with the consequences should, somehow, miraculously, Imperial Aura wins the Ryanair

[Quevega]

I'll be looking at laying Imperial Aura for a place come race day.

I just don't get it, with him. Yes, he's a multiple course winner, but for me that's where the positives end.

He's beat some seriously out of form horses this season, and it's not as if he's been hammering them either. He's had a far from ideal prep run now after that strange mistake LTO.

He's 1pt bigger than last season Ryanair winner, and 2pts shorter than the 2nd. His best form this season is beating Itchy Feet who can't jump for shit, and had a miserable time going back over hurdles since.

Which is the better form?:

Beating Itchy Feet (rated 155) by 5 lengths in a Grade 2 Chase with just 4 runners in? (Imperial Aura)

Finishing 3rd behind horses rated 168 (Kemboy) & 167 (A Plus Tard) in the Grade 1 Savills Chase by 2 lengths? (Melon)

Finishing 2nd and 8 lengths behind a horse rated 174 (Chacun Pour Soi) in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase? (Fakir D'Oudairies)

Now, I've only picked the best form from their individual seasons, and I've only selected three horses, for comparison, but we know the race is going to be harder than that, but there are two above, that, IMO, are plenty enough ahead of Imperial Aura without even considering the rest of the opposition. I'd probably have Allaho's beating of Elimay ahead of Imperial Auras win against Itchy Feet at this point too, although the figures suggest this isn't the case.

Unfortunately we have a host of horses that go into the race on the back of poor or unfortunately circumstances too, so knowing how they go is anyones guess. That list consists of Min, Saint Calvados, Samcro and of course Imperial Aura himself.

Anyway, assuming all the potential challengers turn up, I've now made my bed and it won't be long before I have to lie in it, and deal with the consequences should, somehow, miraculously, Imperial Aura wins the Ryanair

Imperial Aura could be this years Shishkin.
With regards to a huge drift on the day.
His price has been wrong for a long time now, it's collecting dust.
There are dozens of prices that have simply been left, and are not a true reflection of the likely price on the day (give or take the races cutting up of course)
If the main contenders turn up, with positive vibes, then I'd say he's double figures for sure.

[ComplyOrDie]

Imperial Aura could be this years Shishkin.
With regards to a huge drift on the day.
His price has been wrong for a long time now, it's collecting dust.
There are dozens of prices that have simply been left, and are not a true reflection of the likely price on the day (give or take the races cutting up of course)
If the main contenders turn up, with positive vibes, then I'd say he's double figures for sure.

TBF if Imperial Aura was 20's or even 16's I probably wouldn't have even considered the lay, you are correct, his price absolutely stinks!

[Kevloaf]

Imperial Aura could be this years Shishkin.
With regards to a huge drift on the day.
His price has been wrong for a long time now, it's collecting dust.
There are dozens of prices that have simply been left, and are not a true reflection of the likely price on the day (give or take the races cutting up of course)
If the main contenders turn up, with positive vibes, then I'd say he's double figures for sure.

Might be a good idea to make a shortlist of horses that might happen to across all the graded races. The Shishkin example is excellent, and every horse has a price you'd back them at, whether they actually get to that 'correct' or 'value' price for each individual is different...but if we can anticipate a drift you can look at it much more objectively if it gets there.

[Exar Essay]

Might be a good idea to make a shortlist of horses that might happen to across all the graded races. The Shishkin example is excellent, and every horse has a price you'd back them at, whether they actually get to that 'correct' or 'value' price for each individual is different...but if we can anticipate a drift you can look at it much more objectively if it gets there.

To follow on from that, looking at the long range forecast (and in a reversal of what happened to Shishkin) perhaps it's horses who people think only act on soft/heavy that will drift? Energumene, Goshen, maybe Appreciate It?

[Kevloaf]

To follow on from that, looking at the long range forecast (and in a reversal of what happened to Shishkin) perhaps it's horses who people think only act on soft/heavy that will drift? Energumene, Goshen, maybe Appreciate It?

Yeah possibly. I think they've actually said they think Appreciate It will be better on better ground despite his size, but I think if it does get 'good-to-soft' people will think Ballyadam and Appreciate It should be closer together, so it could easily happen.

[luisgarciaisgod]

No.

I give you Vautour.

While I'm certainly not criticizing Vatour, wasn't the reason he stepped back in trip is because they (Willie and RR) weren't sure he'd get 3m2 based on the KG run?

[dannycraigpirates]

While I'm certainly not criticizing Vatour, wasn't the reason he stepped back in trip is because they (Willie and RR) weren't sure he'd get 3m2 based on the KG run?

Thank you, people always forget this....Vautour was available @ 10s for the Ryanair BECAUSE HE DID NOT STAY. Straight after that KG race - lots of people backed him for the correct race. Maybe another year down the line they could have tried him again