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Ryanair Chase 2021

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

    Two main negatives I'd guess would be:
    • falling last time out?
    and
    • class in the grade?

    Now falling last time out would be really forgivable for me, as his jumping is definitely as asset. His technique gets lots of plaudits, and rightly so to my untrained eye. If he jumps 'like normal' fron the front in a Ryanair, he's going to put other horses under pressure, like Frodon, Min, Unixande, Vautour etc.

    The other negative is harder to forgive, as he's not proven to be a Grade 1 horse yet. He's never even had a run in a Grade 1, so at single figure prices compared to multiple grade 1 winners, like Min, he's not a value bet on the class angle in my opinion.


    If I had to back either Imperial Aura or Min, who are 7/1 or 6/1, it'd be Min over and over and over again.


    Doesn't mean Imperial Aura can't win this by any stretch, just don't like his price compared to Min.

    Best of luck though Kautothegreat8 - there are definitely holes to pick in Min, Saint Calvados, Allaho and Melon who are all within a few points!

    Fine line between lunatic and genius?
    Yeah I get the Class angle, I'd be lying if I said it wasnt a slight concern.

    I imagine if he'd had beat grade 1 horses in past the Gold Cup would have been the target this season.

    He just looks a proper horse to me who will get in a rhythm in front and go a relentless gallop from start to finish. I've watched last years race a few times now and Min had the run of the race once Frodon was found out for speed pretty early on. Now I'm thinking and hoping IA has more speed than Frodon and I'm hoping he can take a lead. If he can then the pressure this horse will put on the others jumping could make the difference.

    I'm still not convinced Min finishes his races off in a strong fashion. One thing is for certain ..... IA certainly will.

    I'm under no ellusions....... this is a prediction of how good IA could be.
    Last edited by Kautothegreat8; 19 January 2021, 07:03 PM.

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    • Originally posted by Kautothegreat8 View Post

      Yeah I get the Class angle, I'd be lying if I said it wasnt a slight concern.

      I imagine if he'd had beat grade 1 horses in past the Gold Cup would have been the target this season.

      He just looks a proper horse to me who will get in a rhythm in front and go a relentless gallop from start to finish. I've watched last years race a few times now and Min had the run of the race once Frodon was found out for speed pretty early on. Now I'm thinking and hoping IA has more speed than Frodon and I'm hoping he can take a lead. If he can then the pressure this horse will put on the others jumping could make the difference.

      I'm still not convinced Min finishes his races off in a strong fashion. One thing is for certain ..... IA certainly will.

      I'm under no ellusions....... this is a prediction of how good IA could be.
      The issue with that is Min can go a proper clip, like a champion chaser. Setting aside how Min finishes, my worry with IA is because he hasn't raced or won vs G1 horses, its impossible to know if setting those fractions upfront and throughout the race with Min would take its toll at the end of the race, so I think you can be confident Kauto, but I don't think you can be certain.

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      • Originally posted by charlie View Post

        The issue with that is Min can go a proper clip, like a champion chaser. Setting aside how Min finishes, my worry with IA is because he hasn't raced or won vs G1 horses, its impossible to know if setting those fractions upfront and throughout the race with Min would take its toll at the end of the race, so I think you can be confident Kauto, but I don't think you can be certain.
        I think the two horses are at different ends of the spectrum.

        Min would be the speedier of the two and IA would be the stronger stayer. The harder they go the more it blunts Mins chances in my opinion.

        The question is ........ Is IA fast enough to put Min under pressure ?

        Albeit a guess, I dont think IA lacks speed but time will tell.

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        • Without sounding silly what makes you think they are gunna try lead with imperial? Didn’t lead last year at Cheltenham And have often settled just off the pace or pressing this year in his races? Think Theyl look to get a tow into the race myself assuming it’s not a dawdle

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          • Originally posted by Kautothegreat8 View Post

            Brilliant

            I've been thinking about Imperial Aura for some time now. As usual I leave it a few days before committing to a bet.

            The theory being ......... give my brain abit of time to process what its been thinking to try and flush out any bullshit it may have picked up along the way.

            I just cant see a negative so I've decided to go balls deep on the bet and trust my gut.

            Jesus Christ I sound like a lunatic !!!
            I think there may be a bit of room in his price.
            I can see myself backing him and may regret not doing so sooner if Min or some of the others don't turn up, but if they do then I think his price could hold or be bigger nearer the day.
            The pre Cheltenham talk won't like the fall last time and it could be a hot race if Melon and Allaho turn up, and even Cyrname.

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            • Thinking about this race this morning - Like you do.

              I think someone mentioned it the other day, but this could be a very hot race, and potentially more difficult than the Gold Cup.

              Likely runners.

              Min
              St Calvados
              Allaho
              Melon
              Cyrname
              Imperial Aura
              Samcro
              Fakir Doudaries
              Riders onthe storm
              Mister Fisher
              Tornado Flyer
              Real Steel
              Battleoverdoyen
              Simplythebetts

              Possibly some others and obviously some of those above may not run for sure.
              It just looks deep.
              So from a NRNB or antepost betting POV it's a leave alone race.

              Min's 5-1 looks solid, but IMO no certainty to place.
              The front 2 from last year will be popular but there may well be a good 6 potentially new, improving and decent challengers this year.

              Whatever, happens you're probably looking at a solid 8-10 running here with a shout.

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              • With a few lovely sunny crisp blowy drying days to come at Thurles, Allaho should finally get ideal conditions to show his true credentials and put himself firmly in the picture for the Ryanair. I'm expecting big things from him over what I feel is his optimum trip and reckon that PT will pop him out into the lead and jump for fun up front and win convincingly. Its a very decent field so if he does that he'd have earned his chance.

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                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                  With a few lovely sunny crisp blowy drying days to come at Thurles, Allaho should finally get ideal conditions to show his true credentials and put himself firmly in the picture for the Ryanair. I'm expecting big things from him over what I feel is his optimum trip and reckon that PT will pop him out into the lead and jump for fun up front and win convincingly. Its a very decent field so if he does that he'd have earned his chance.
                  Be nice to see he actually has a trip, see how he gets on........Think he does need to be prominent to have any chance in the this or the Ryanair. I just dont get the horse tbh but willing to change my mind with a good performance and win

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                  • I see Ruby walsh finally put up a selection for the festival on road to Cheltenham

                    And it was Allaho for this

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                    • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
                      I see Ruby walsh finally put up a selection for the festival on road to Cheltenham

                      And it was Allaho for this
                      Is that a positive or negative for backers?

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                      • Originally posted by Big Bucks View Post

                        Is that a positive or negative for backers?
                        A slight positive probably

                        Just interesting given they have min and melon

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                        • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
                          I see Ruby walsh finally put up a selection for the festival on road to Cheltenham

                          And it was Allaho for this
                          ....explains plenty of blue on Oddschecker.

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                          • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                            A slight positive probably

                            Just interesting given they have min and melon
                            They're still persisting with Melon over 3M+ with the Irish Gold Cup entry at DRF, they could very well aim him at the Gold Cup to try push Frodon out of his comfort zone like what happened in last years Ryanair, and set it up for ABP. If anything, I think Ruby's tip indicated that Allaho will be aimed at Ryanair and not the GC, you would have to think Min is the better horse of the two.

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                            • What did people see in Melon's last run that makes them think a deeper race over 2f further up that hill is going to suit him more than this?

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                              • Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
                                I see Ruby walsh finally put up a selection for the festival on road to Cheltenham

                                And it was Allaho for this
                                I beat him to it. Fuck off Ruby !

                                Comment

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