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Ryanair Chase 2021

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  • Originally posted by DeeBee View Post
    Anyone any fancies/angles/stats to help with this race? It seems like just as much of a minefield now as it did 6 months ago.. needless to say it’s the only race I’ve yet to make a selection in (exc handicaps)

    min was my initial fancy 6 months ago but I think they’ll be one too good.. just not sure who
    There looks to be a lot of front/prominent runners to me

    so it may pay to side with something that will be ridden patiently

    and the one that comes to mind is waiting patiently

    I'm just not sure there's a great deal of value in the 10/1 nrnb

    Comment


    • Originally posted by DeeBee View Post
      Anyone any fancies/angles/stats to help with this race? It seems like just as much of a minefield now as it did 6 months ago.. needless to say it’s the only race I’ve yet to make a selection in (exc handicaps)

      min was my initial fancy 6 months ago but I think they’ll be one too good.. just not sure who
      I don't believe we've seen the best of Allaho this season. Wasn't himself first time up and didn't stay over 3 miles last time. Can't wait to see him ridden more prominently over shorter and on Spring ground. That's what he's crying out for.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Nortons who View Post
        I have been taking a closer look at the Ryanair Chase to get a better understanding of the past winners (ages, official ratings, SPs), how the Favourites got on and also an indication as to whether running in this race the year before is significant.

        There have been 16 runnings of this race over the intermediate distance of 2m 5f (registered as The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase).

        Winners

        2005 - Thisthatandtother - Age 9 - OR 155 - SP 9/2 - 12 ran
        2006 - Fondmort - Age 10 - OR 157 - SP 100/30 Joint Fav - 11 ran
        2007 - Taranis - Age 6 - OR 157 - SP 9/2 - 9 ran
        2008 - Our Vic - Age 10 - OR 165 - SP 4/1 - 9 ran
        2009 - Imperial Commander - Age 8 - OR 156 - SP 6/1 - 10 ran
        2010 - Albertas Run - Age 9 - OR 162 - SP 14/1 - 13 ran
        2011 - Albertas Run - Age 10 - OR 166 - SP 6/1 - 11 ran
        2012 - Riverside Theatre - Age 8 - OR 168 - SP 7/2 Fav - 12 ran
        2013 - Cue Card - Age 7 - OR 165 - SP 7/2 - 8 ran
        2014 - Dynaste - Age 8 - OR 169 - SP 3/1 Fav - 11 ran
        2015 - Uxizandre - Age 7 - OR 161 - SP 16/1 - 14 ran
        2016 - Vautour - Age 7 - OR 176 - SP Evens Fav - 15 ran
        2017 - Un De Sceaux - Age 9 - OR 171 - SP 7/4 Fav - 8 ran
        2018 - Balko Des Flos - Age 7 - OR 166 - SP 8/1 - 6 ran
        2019 - Frodon - Age 7 - OR 169 - SP 9/2 - 12 ran
        2020 - Min - Age 9 - OR 170 - SP 2-1 - 8 ran

        In respect of Age, 7 years olds seem to have done comparatvely well, winning 5 of the last 8 renewals. Overall the Age profile of winners is as follows. I have also shown the number of runners by Age group accross all 16 runnings.

        Age 6 = 1 win / 16 races = 6% of races from only 8 runners (5% of the total).
        Age 7 = 5 wins / 16 races = 30% of races from 28 runners (16% of the total).
        Age 8 = 2 wins / 16 races = 12.5% of races from 51 runners (30% of the total).
        Age 9 = 4 wins / 16 races = 25% of races from 43 runners (25% of the total).
        Age 10 = 3 wins / 16 races = 19% of races from 24 runners (14% of the total).
        Age 11 and over = 0 winners from 15 runners (9% of the total).

        The number of runners per race has ranged from 6 to 15 which averages 10.5 runners. 75 % of the races had 8-12 runners.

        In the 16 runnings, the Favourites have won 5 times (including 1 Joint Favourite) and been placed 6 times (2nd x 4 , 3rd x 2). Backing these Favourites at SP win only 1 point level stakes would have incurred bets of 17 points with a return of 17.58, resulting in a meagre net profit of 0.58 points.

        The SP of the Winner has ranged from Evens (Vautour) to 16-1 Uxizandre, with only 2 winners being in double figures. 50% of Winners had an SP in the range 3-1 to 9-2.

        The pre race Official Rating of the Winner has ranged from 155 to 176 (Vautour), averaging 164.5. Four of the first 5 runnings of the race were won by horses rated in the 150s but none since 2009, so the OR has drifted upwards averaging 167.5 since then.

        One of the aspects I was keen to know more about is the trend for horses returning to run in the race the following year. Of the 161 horses between 2005 and 2019 which potentially could have run in the race the following year only 33 did, which equates to around 20 %. Of these 33 returning runners, there were 4 winners of 15 races (27%) with Albertas Run being the only dual winner.

        Returning runners achieved 4 victories from 33 selections (12%) compared with those which didn't run the previous year which achieved 11 victories from 129 selections (8.5%).

        The numbers of returning runners in the Ryanair (averaging around 2 per season) seem quite low to me and backing them all blindly at SP 1 point win level stakes would have incurred bets of 33 points with only 21.33 in return.

        As to my own conclusions having looked a bit more into the data:

        # Backing the Favourites at SP won't make much of a profit.
        # 7 year olds have statistically won more races but overall the Age range 7-9 has won 69% of races and the last 9 renewals.
        # In terms of returnning runners, only around 20% based on past runnings will run in the race the following year and only Albertas Run has doubled up. So on this basis I won't be backing MIn Ante Post and I doubt I would back him SP either given that 10 year olds in this race have a 19% win rate.
        # Although 3 winners have had pre-race ORs in the 170s, 6 horses with 170s ratings have also been beaten.
        # Based on the evidence to date there is an 80/20 probability that the 2021 Ryanair Chase winner won't have run in the race in 2020.
        Deebee asked if there were any angles / stats on this race which might narrow down selections etc. I posted the above info back in August, which contains summaries of past winners based on Age, OR etc plus my initial conclusions at the time.

        Since then I have done a u-turn re Min and backed him with Free bets but I still think a younger horse will win.


        Comment


        • I'm gonna grab my balls and say what I think here.

          This may sound a little strong considering the horses hes beat upto now but I really cant see Imperial Aura being beat here.

          I've no doubt I'm gonna get shot down as I have no real form line to base that thought on but I trust my eye. If theres any horse that's suited to Cheltenham and a Ryanair it would be him. He jumps, he travels behind the bridal and finishes his races off super strong to the line. Combine that with Bass on board chucking him at every fence it's a perfect combination for a Ryanair.

          I Actually think he would be a big player in a Gold cup but that could be next years target.

          The unseat at Kempton could be a blessing in disguise. Yes hes made an error but he never hit the deck. He'll learn from that with no lasting effect of a heavy fall.

          With no Frodon in the race I can see him having a lead and making this a real test of jumping. I just cant see anything coming past him with a "USUAL" sound round of jumping.

          So there you have it .......... Egg on my face ?

          Comment


          • Nortons who

            Comprehensive stats you’ve reminded of us there, many thanks.

            As a relatively new race trends are still evolving I think, the age (10yo) I’ll ignore, no winner over 9 in last 9 runnings is more the norm and the 3 x 10yo winners in the first 7 runnings of the race for me is unreliable, the age trends for this race should mirror the Champion Chase and Gold Cup and your ‘u turn’ reflects your change of opinion.

            I’ve said it elsewhere too, every year the ante post market is full of horses that don’t come here, it’s an horrendous race to get stuck into, so where strong trends exist I’d be happy following them
            but for main/big plays that will be Thursday...

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kautothegreat8 View Post
              I'm gonna grab my balls and say what I think here.

              This may sound a little strong considering the horses hes beat upto now but I really cant see Imperial Aura being beat here.

              I've no doubt I'm gonna get shot down as I have no real form line to base that thought on but I trust my eye. If theres any horse that's suited to Cheltenham and a Ryanair it would be him. He jumps, he travels behind the bridal and finishes his races off super strong to the line. Combine that with Bass on board chucking him at every fence it's a perfect combination for a Ryanair.

              I Actually think he would be a big player in a Gold cup but that could be next years target.

              The unseat at Kempton could be a blessing in disguise. Yes hes made an error but he never hit the deck. He'll learn from that with no lasting effect of a heavy fall.

              With no Frodon in the race I can see him having a lead and making this a real test of jumping. I just cant see anything coming past him with a "USUAL" sound round of jumping.

              So there you have it .......... Egg on my face ?
              Cant see him being quick enough to lead min personally

              Comment


              • Allaho entered in the G2 2m4f at Thurles on Sunday. Combined with the lack of DRF entry, it appears to confirm this as the preferred Cheltenham target. Of course, if he gets out-speeded here the Gold Cup might be back in the picture.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kautothegreat8 View Post
                  I'm gonna grab my balls and say what I think here.

                  This may sound a little strong considering the horses hes beat upto now but I really cant see Imperial Aura being beat here.

                  I've no doubt I'm gonna get shot down as I have no real form line to base that thought on but I trust my eye. If theres any horse that's suited to Cheltenham and a Ryanair it would be him. He jumps, he travels behind the bridal and finishes his races off super strong to the line. Combine that with Bass on board chucking him at every fence it's a perfect combination for a Ryanair.

                  I Actually think he would be a big player in a Gold cup but that could be next years target.

                  The unseat at Kempton could be a blessing in disguise. Yes hes made an error but he never hit the deck. He'll learn from that with no lasting effect of a heavy fall.

                  With no Frodon in the race I can see him having a lead and making this a real test of jumping. I just cant see anything coming past him with a "USUAL" sound round of jumping.

                  So there you have it .......... Egg on my face ?
                  I am mostly just confused as to what your genitals had to do with the rest of the post, all told

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kautothegreat8 View Post
                    I'm gonna grab my balls and say what I think here.

                    This may sound a little strong considering the horses hes beat upto now but I really cant see Imperial Aura being beat here.

                    I've no doubt I'm gonna get shot down as I have no real form line to base that thought on but I trust my eye. If theres any horse that's suited to Cheltenham and a Ryanair it would be him. He jumps, he travels behind the bridal and finishes his races off super strong to the line. Combine that with Bass on board chucking him at every fence it's a perfect combination for a Ryanair.

                    I Actually think he would be a big player in a Gold cup but that could be next years target.

                    The unseat at Kempton could be a blessing in disguise. Yes hes made an error but he never hit the deck. He'll learn from that with no lasting effect of a heavy fall.

                    With no Frodon in the race I can see him having a lead and making this a real test of jumping. I just cant see anything coming past him with a "USUAL" sound round of jumping.

                    So there you have it .......... Egg on my face ?
                    I like imperial Aura too and although there isn’t a lot to go on regarding form lines. I have to go on what I saw as well, I really like the way the horse jumps and travels.

                    it is 100% a stab in the dark as you are going on the unknown quality of the horse but has cheltenham form and I hope this might just be one year too far for min... he has been in some super battles and I hope that is starting to take its toll.

                    jt Should be a cracking race regardless and the alloha element will certainly add to the race

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by archie View Post
                      Allaho entered in the G2 2m4f at Thurles on Sunday. Combined with the lack of DRF entry, it appears to confirm this as the preferred Cheltenham target. Of course, if he gets out-speeded here the Gold Cup might be back in the picture.
                      Interestingly, the winner in 2020 (Real Steel) went for a Gold Cup and looked like he should have been in the Ryanair.

                      In 2017 and 2016, Sizing John and Don Cossack won this before winning the Gold Cup.


                      Not a race Willie has used for many winners but some festival favourites have taken the race in. Black Hercules and Footpad to name a couple.


                      Allaho does actually have quite a lot to prove, hopefully this gets him back on track.


                      Just to note, none of the 'previous horses to run' have anything to do with Allaho really but I just like looking back through

                      Comment


                      • I'd back Imperial Aura @ 14/1+ because that for me would factor in the ? over form. As it stands, 6/1 just doesn't appeal to me as an ante post proposition. KB said straight to Cheltenham now and off the back of a fall + what is shaping into a fairly deep race, I don't think you'll see a price too dissimilar then to now, so its a watching brief for me.
                        Last edited by charlie; 19 January 2021, 03:39 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by robith View Post

                          I am mostly just confused as to what your genitals had to do with the rest of the post, all told
                          From what I understand.

                          His balls are full of egg, and not semen.



                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                            From what I understand.

                            His balls are full of egg, and not semen.


                            Brilliant

                            I've been thinking about Imperial Aura for some time now. As usual I leave it a few days before committing to a bet.

                            The theory being ......... give my brain abit of time to process what its been thinking to try and flush out any bullshit it may have picked up along the way.

                            I just cant see a negative so I've decided to go balls deep on the bet and trust my gut.

                            Jesus Christ I sound like a lunatic !!!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Kautothegreat8 View Post

                              Brilliant

                              I've been thinking about Imperial Aura for some time now. As usual I leave it a few days before committing to a bet.

                              The theory being ......... give my brain abit of time to process what its been thinking to try and flush out any bullshit it may have picked up along the way.

                              I just cant see a negative so I've decided to go balls deep on the bet and trust my gut.

                              Jesus Christ I sound like a lunatic !!!
                              Two main negatives I'd guess would be:
                              • falling last time out?
                              and
                              • class in the grade?

                              Now falling last time out would be really forgivable for me, as his jumping is definitely as asset. His technique gets lots of plaudits, and rightly so to my untrained eye. If he jumps 'like normal' fron the front in a Ryanair, he's going to put other horses under pressure, like Frodon, Min, Unixande, Vautour etc.

                              The other negative is harder to forgive, as he's not proven to be a Grade 1 horse yet. He's never even had a run in a Grade 1, so at single figure prices compared to multiple grade 1 winners, like Min, he's not a value bet on the class angle in my opinion.


                              If I had to back either Imperial Aura or Min, who are 7/1 or 6/1, it'd be Min over and over and over again.


                              Doesn't mean Imperial Aura can't win this by any stretch, just don't like his price compared to Min.

                              Best of luck though Kautothegreat8 - there are definitely holes to pick in Min, Saint Calvados, Allaho and Melon who are all within a few points!

                              Fine line between lunatic and genius?

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                                Two main negatives I'd guess would be:
                                • falling last time out?
                                and
                                • class in the grade?

                                Now falling last time out would be really forgivable for me, as his jumping is definitely as asset. His technique gets lots of plaudits, and rightly so to my untrained eye. If he jumps 'like normal' fron the front in a Ryanair, he's going to put other horses under pressure, like Frodon, Min, Unixande, Vautour etc.

                                The other negative is harder to forgive, as he's not proven to be a Grade 1 horse yet. He's never even had a run in a Grade 1, so at single figure prices compared to multiple grade 1 winners, like Min, he's not a value bet on the class angle in my opinion.


                                If I had to back either Imperial Aura or Min, who are 7/1 or 6/1, it'd be Min over and over and over again.


                                Doesn't mean Imperial Aura can't win this by any stretch, just don't like his price compared to Min.

                                Best of luck though Kautothegreat8 - there are definitely holes to pick in Min, Saint Calvados, Allaho and Melon who are all within a few points!

                                Fine line between lunatic and genius?
                                Amen. One has won 5/6 Grade 1's over 2m5f (thanks GL) vs the other who has none. The gulf in ability might not be there at all, but it certainly is on form.

                                Comment

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