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Gold Cup 2021

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

    If you think something is 1/4, you don't think 11/8 is value?

    That is nonsense
    So that’s you and my wife telling me I talk nonsense.

    The trouble is you’re both right.

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

      The horse that Coneygree beat was Rich Ricci's Djakadam who wasn't even thought of as a GC horse until winning a big handicap at Gowran on January 22nd off an identical mark to Royal Pigaille today. Very spooky comparison.
      Djakadam won the Thyestes off a mark in the 140's.
      not spooky, just innacurate.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

        Don't think many if any of us think he can win it. We just think he's good enough to run in it. Big difference.
        Like this much better.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post

          I rarely bet at those prices. No point at my level of punting.

          Also, at those odds I wouldn’t say it’s a value bet.
          Loved this one.
          Glad I scrolled down before responding myself.
          Add me to the list with Kev and your wife.
          Not your best comment Norton's, although I'm sure you knew what you really meant

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Madmoose View Post
            If they really think he is a GC Animal then send him to the Denman like Coneygree did, it would be a big test vs Native River who loves that race and then decide it’s Cheltenham target.
            Bristol de Mai did this, after doin something very similar to what Royale did.
            And it arguably cost him a better run and placing in the Gold cup.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

              Djakadam won the Thyestes off a mark in the 140's.
              not spooky, just innacurate.
              Was thinking more RPR of 160 but take your point. A lower official rating than Royal Pagaille of 145 so we know Ricci has history sending this type to the GC.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                Don't think many if any of us think he can win it. We just think he's good enough to run in it. Big difference.
                So let me see if I’ve got this right. Folks are advocating the merits of a certain horse running in a certain race that none of them think he can win. Well I’m glad we cleared all that up. I’m thinking lockdown can’t end too soon. (don’t know what this one means it just felt appropriate)

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post

                  So let me see if I’ve got this right. Folks are advocating the merits of a certain horse running in a certain race that none of them think he can win. Well I’m glad we cleared all that up. I’m thinking lockdown can’t end too soon. (don’t know what this one means it just felt appropriate)
                  Its just helpful if you are thinking of backing him for any other race without insurances.

                  Comment


                  • From a GC race trends perspective, there are a couple to bear in mind regarding Royal Pagaille.

                    20 of the last 21 GC winners had won a G1 Chase. The Peter Marsh is only a Grade 2 but possibly one of the more prestigious so is this good enough ?

                    This century 84 horses entered in the GC have run on ground with 'Heavy' in the going description but none have won. This could be an indication they had a hard race which took their toll ahead of GC attempt. However, watching the race yesterday at Haydock with its customary 'Heavy' ground for this time of year, Royal Pagaille certainly didn't appear to have had a hard race.

                    So my own interpretation of these trends for Royal Pagaille is that the 'Heavy' ground win yesterday wouldn't overly concern me but in terms of the standard of the Peter Marsh Chase, has PG won a race of sufficient quality yet or against high class opposition to justify having a leading chance in the GC?

                    In past years the answer would be a resounding 'No' but maybe this year the answer is a tentative 'Yes'. Personally, 2 of the main Grade 1 GC trials this season (The King George and Savills Chase) have been underwhelming in respect of the winning performances and their manner. Both wins achieved under outstanding rides by the winning jockeys but beaten connections in both races will feel they ought to have done better. On this basis IMO, the strongest form line remains last season's GC from which ABP is firmly at the top but maybe Royal Pagaille isn't too far away from the rest.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                      Was thinking more RPR of 160 but take your point. A lower official rating than Royal Pagaille of 145 so we know Ricci has history sending this type to the GC.
                      I'm on your side of this discussion, and have been from the start.
                      Djakadam actually ran in the Gold cup with a really low rating.

                      I remember it well as I had a big argument with mates cos I backed it and they backed Coneygree.

                      I was adamant that a novice had no chance as they'd hardly ever won a gold cup, and they were adamant that Djakadam was nowhere near good enough.

                      Obviously we know how that ended.
                      I did have him each way @ 16's though, so small mercy's and all that.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                        I'm on your side of this discussion, and have been from the start.
                        Djakadam actually ran in the Gold cup with a really low rating.

                        I remember it well as I had a big argument with mates cos I backed it and they backed Coneygree.

                        I was adamant that a novice had no chance as they'd hardly ever won a gold cup, and they were adamant that Djakadam was nowhere near good enough.

                        Obviously we know how that ended.
                        I did have him each way @ 16's though, so small mercy's and all that.
                        Royal Pagaille is a mixture of both Coneygree and Djakadam based on the above. Not a bad thing. I'll definitely back him on the day in some shape or form. I simply have to after the time I've spent posting about him. I'll probably go the Without market.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Nortons who View Post
                          From a GC race trends perspective, there are a couple to bear in mind regarding Royal Pagaille.

                          20 of the last 21 GC winners had won a G1 Chase. The Peter Marsh is only a Grade 2 but possibly one of the more prestigious so is this good enough ?

                          This century 84 horses entered in the GC have run on ground with 'Heavy' in the going description but none have won. This could be an indication they had a hard race which took their toll ahead of GC attempt. However, watching the race yesterday at Haydock with its customary 'Heavy' ground for this time of year, Royal Pagaille certainly didn't appear to have had a hard race.

                          So my own interpretation of these trends for Royal Pagaille is that the 'Heavy' ground win yesterday wouldn't overly concern me but in terms of the standard of the Peter Marsh Chase, has PG won a race of sufficient quality yet or against high class opposition to justify having a leading chance in the GC?

                          In past years the answer would be a resounding 'No' but maybe this year the answer is a tentative 'Yes'. Personally, 2 of the main Grade 1 GC trials this season (The King George and Savills Chase) have been underwhelming in respect of the winning performances and their manner. Both wins achieved under outstanding rides by the winning jockeys but beaten connections in both races will feel they ought to have done better. On this basis IMO, the strongest form line remains last season's GC from which ABP is firmly at the top but maybe Royal Pagaille isn't too far away from the rest.
                          The biggest doubt, aside from these stats, for this horse's actual winning chances in the Gold Cup, is pace !

                          He travels brilliantly and on the whole jumps low and efficiently.
                          But there is no doubt that his 2 latest victories and massive jump in ratings have been in races run at a slower tempo than what he'll likely face in a Gold Cup.

                          And that's when not only his jumping will be tested but also his class and True stamina at championship pace.

                          I think this is possibly why the grade 1 and Heavy ground stats are what they are.
                          As unless they've ran in a decent (not extreme) ground grade 1 at championship pace then it's guesswork whether they can withstand that gallop and still compete, and obviously many cannot (win at least).

                          And that's why I'd rather back A Plus Tard (for example) at the prices than this lad.
                          Although that's not to say he can't win, it'd just be a preference of one over the other for the reasons stated.
                          Last edited by Quevega; 24 January 2021, 10:18 AM.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                            Don't think many if any of us think he can win it. We just think he's good enough to run in it. Big difference.
                            Given that RP would have fair chance of winning other races at the Festival, i would presume that if he was to turn up here it means connections think he can win this one.
                            I personally would also think that.

                            Comment


                            • I don’t think RP will come here. The NHC is there for the taking and he’d probably win it and win it well - the same cannot be said for the Gold Cup. Sending him down the Gold Cup route would be throwing him in the proverbial deep end, especially compared to the races he’s been running in so far this season. The Gold Cup will be a world apart and I think trainers / owners have a way of being patient and thinking long term in ways that punters don’t. I understand the ‘just go for it’ argument and the Gold Cup is infinitely more important than the NHC, but a Gold Cup too soon could bottom the horse completely, and an important part of their decision-making process is trying to establish where the horses ceiling of ability is. Does beating 130’s horses comfortably round Haydock under optimum conditions flatter to deceive? Would the tempo of a Gold Cup vs horses of 160+ quality be too much for him? Will the ground be better on the Tuesday than the Friday? For me it makes sense to take in the NHC this year, and GC next year if he proves he is good enough. Be devastating for my Galvin bets so I hope I am wrong.

                              Comment


                              • He's 7 years old Charlie so I'm not buying the arguement that he'll be bottomed if he runs.

                                He's had plenty of chasing experience as Spectre points out, more than most of his potential GC rivals.

                                He'll take a hell of a lot of beating in the NH Chase but imagine if he bolts up in that. RR and VW would be left wondering what could have been.

                                ​​​​​​

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