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Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

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  • Originally posted by charlie View Post

    As a side note, general expectations about novices have definitely changed a lot over the last 10 years (IMO of course). I found myself expecting Ballyadam to 'blow away' more experienced rivals on his second start over hurdles in a grade 1 yesterday. I can put my hands up and say I definitely fell into the trap of not managing my own expectations properly, and think very generally, that there's a tendency for all of us, the media, twitter etc, to do the same re novice hurdlers, particularly at this point in the season.
    I'm not sure anything has really changed with expectations around the novices Charlie. I think we've always wanted the best horses to have a series of 1's against their names. But the truth is they're all learning their trade and the best horses improve as the season develops. History tells us that it's just as likely the winners of the three novice hurdles have been beaten at some point than they will have a series 1's.

    With first runs it can be hard to gage fitness, and trainers are often figuring out the best trip for the horse and in context of the likely opposition. They don't always get it right either, although sometimes they get away with it. Istabraq and Faugheen went to the Ballymore for example and we know what happened next.

    My rule is always to forgive one run and not two, and it's served me well over the years. I try hard not to overreact to one run unless it's patently obvious I've got it wrong.

    In the case of Ballyadam, he may well end up going to the Supreme with a string of 1's next to his name, and his performance in the Royal Bond was okay, but he'd have been the perfect horse for the old Deloitte Hurdle in Feb when it was over 2m2f, just to see if they think he should go up in trip rather than stick to the minimum. I think it's possible he may better going up in trip, but that doesn't mean he can't win a fast run Supreme, but so far I do think it may suit Ferny Hollow better. I'm keeping an open mind though until they both have their Christmas engagements.

    The race doesn't just revolve around the two of them though. There are others of real potential, and we still haven't seen some horses out that could potentially shake the race up.
    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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    • I think Ballyadam has a chance in the Supreme, as Charlie said it was a 7/10 performance. He needs to tidy up his jumping a bit and he may be more fluent with a strong pace.

      What i did like was the way he put the race to bed between the second last and last with a good turn of foot, obviously he hit the last which gave the others a chance but won cosily enough, had he winged that last it would have looked far better i suspect. See how he goes next time out now, ill especially keep an eye on his jumping.

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      • Don’t think this has been mentioned yet but Scooby has now added Ballyadam to his Free horses to avoid page, worth a read for anyone contemplating going in at 6s for the Supreme not that I think there will be many on here of that disposition

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        • Not sure if there's been anything said from JOB about him, but i notice Eric Bloodaxe still hasn't made the track, according to his stable tour he should've been out by now. Also no entry in the g1s over xmas...

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          • Has anyone heard anything on the well being of 4 of willie's:

            Micro Manage
            Feu De Brasil
            Fly Smart
            Rayapour

            Been really looking forward to seeing how these chaps get on over hurdles but I dont think they have had many (or any) entries yet.

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            • Happy to have Ballyadam as my number 1 for the Supreme but wouldn't dare back him at current price.

              I cashed my Appreciate It Supreme bet prior to his run and lumped on for the Ballymore after someone here set me straight (ty BTW!) and would agree he might still be great value.

              Anyone care to throw a dart at where Ferny ends up. Looks a stayer but also looks to be full of speed. I can't see Ballyadam and him clashing but also I wonder would Mullins want him and Appreciate It clashing again. Does he flog Appreciate It to the spud race?

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              • Originally posted by Altior View Post
                Happy to have Ballyadam as my number 1 for the Supreme but wouldn't dare back him at current price.

                I cashed my Appreciate It Supreme bet prior to his run and lumped on for the Ballymore after someone here set me straight (ty BTW!) and would agree he might still be great value.

                Anyone care to throw a dart at where Ferny ends up. Looks a stayer but also looks to be full of speed. I can't see Ballyadam and him clashing but also I wonder would Mullins want him and Appreciate It clashing again. Does he flog Appreciate It to the spud race?
                Patrick mentioned Bartlett for Appreciate It a few months ago (if that means anything, which it doesnt). I always saw Ferny as a 2miler, simply because he can get keen the slower they go. That leaves ballyadam for the ballymore which i like the alliteration of so they should do that

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                • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post
                  Not sure if there's been anything said from JOB about him, but i notice Eric Bloodaxe still hasn't made the track, according to his stable tour he should've been out by now. Also no entry in the g1s over xmas...
                  That is interesting, I think I'll cash out until we get an update in that case. I don't like the no entries over Christmas at all.... I'm assuming his other similar profiled horses do have entries?

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                  • Originally posted by Nortons who View Post

                    I did read the recent conversations in this thread with interest, since I was the one who asked the question about why Ballyadam was being targeted at the Supreme. What I can't understand though is how you don't realise that the following words from yourself might come accross as a bit pompous : "Not out of context. You need to read back what you type, and add clarity".

                    One thing I have noticed on this forum is that some individual's don't accept any criticism whatsoever and the fact that someone might actually support another's opinion is even more of an anathema.

                    Behaviour like this will stifle rather than encourage participation, which is entirely the opposite of what we all want from the Forum.
                    the conversation i referred to was in the champion hurdle thread.
                    i'm very open to criticism
                    he/she accused me of taking things out of context, but i didn't. I was simply having a bit of light hearted fun with a sentence he wrote, but he/she got all upset.

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                    • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post
                      Not sure if there's been anything said from JOB about him, but i notice Eric Bloodaxe still hasn't made the track, according to his stable tour he should've been out by now. Also no entry in the g1s over xmas...
                      Thanks Jack - good spot. Agree that cashing out until an entry seems like the best idea

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                      • Holymacapony and The Bosses Oscar put up by a twitter tipster .. .expect the cuts to follow.

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                        • My Ballyadam/Ferny/Appreciate It headache continues but might be easing. Added AI for the Bartlett at 22/1 boosted with PP. He's the one who looks an RSA horse in the making and I think he could be the one shoved up in trip to accommodate the CP two. Still have more points on him for the Ballymore at a worse price but happy enough now. Ferny for the Supreme is the only thing I haven't covered at a price I am willing to take and I'm willing to keep the faith in Ballyadam at the prices I have. If Flinteur didn't flop I'd be sleeping much more soundly.

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                          • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post

                            I think he was doing enough SB.

                            His turn of foot to get away from the field was impressive and Jack wasn’t throwing the kitchen sink at him and was eased down a bit.
                            I watched back this morning, Envoi Allen winning the Royal Bond, and then Ballyadam doing the same.
                            The finish was almost identical, both horses led, got close into the last a little, then remained a length and a half clear without being pushed, with the third closing in on the second.

                            Of course we know what Envoi Allen, Abacadabras and Darver Star did afterwards.
                            .........and we don’t know yet what Ballyadam, Cask Mate and N’Golo will go on to do.

                            Ballyadam did plenty right, and a couple of times got in tight to hurdles. If the jockey had given him a little push into those, rather than letting the horse choose what to do, it could have been a cleaner round.
                            No doubt that is something that is easily corrected for his Christmas Grade 1.

                            He is the only Grade 1 winner at the moment, and the natural, current, Supreme favourite.
                            He beat horses well enough that had current Irish ratings of 137, 138, (which with UK-tax would be around 142/143).

                            I was happy with the performance second time out in that company.
                            He is catching up on experience with the bumper horses from last year, which is the point to starting early enough to have two races before Christmas.


                            "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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                            • Originally posted by Crolwey113 View Post
                              Holymacapony and The Bosses Oscar put up by a twitter tipster .. .expect the cuts to follow.
                              TBO was cut by BF/PP from 20’s to 14’s earlier today.
                              "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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                              • My problem with Ballyadam is that yet again he hasn't beat an awful lot. Unlike last season, where I backed Abacadabras after the Royal Bond, as 365 moved him out to 16/1, on the back of being beat by one of the best horses in training, I just don't see Cask Mate or Ngolo being that level, well not over 2m anyway. Ngolo could be plenty decent enough up in trip.

                                You'd have to think Willie knows exactly where he stands with Ballyadam on a line through Ngolo, whether that be with Ferny Hollow or another of his potential Supreme runners. Possibly something we have yet to see.

                                Year on year the Royal Bond becomes a graveyard for winners of the race going onto the Supreme. I don't see Ballyadam being that potential 'superstar' to change that.

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