Originally posted by charlie
View Post
With first runs it can be hard to gage fitness, and trainers are often figuring out the best trip for the horse and in context of the likely opposition. They don't always get it right either, although sometimes they get away with it. Istabraq and Faugheen went to the Ballymore for example and we know what happened next.
My rule is always to forgive one run and not two, and it's served me well over the years. I try hard not to overreact to one run unless it's patently obvious I've got it wrong.
In the case of Ballyadam, he may well end up going to the Supreme with a string of 1's next to his name, and his performance in the Royal Bond was okay, but he'd have been the perfect horse for the old Deloitte Hurdle in Feb when it was over 2m2f, just to see if they think he should go up in trip rather than stick to the minimum. I think it's possible he may better going up in trip, but that doesn't mean he can't win a fast run Supreme, but so far I do think it may suit Ferny Hollow better. I'm keeping an open mind though until they both have their Christmas engagements.
The race doesn't just revolve around the two of them though. There are others of real potential, and we still haven't seen some horses out that could potentially shake the race up.
Comment