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2022 Mares Chase

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  • #31
    Originally posted by Lobos View Post
    Above post is the best I've read on here in some time. Brilliant Spectre.
    Except the original post was referring to the arkle and Spectre is waxing lyrical about the Champion chase
    The message is still in there though, I suppose. Just a bit overdone on the Champion chase examples.

    But people need to remember that not everyone is building a book or covering as many bases as everyone else, they're probably making choices earlier that may or may not be proved right.
    It's much easier to back a horse at this point than not too.




    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by Spectre View Post

      Doubt away WTL. It's perhaps not such a good idea.

      The season before last Altior, Chacun, and Defi were hot favourites and none of them made it. Chacun and Altior very late on. Politologue was the beneficiary in what was a terrible renewal.

      You also have Newmill 16/1 type renewals where Kauto Star fell, and Moscow Flyer massively underperformed probably for the only time in his life. Newmill went back three more times and was smashed each time. Douvan at 2/9 trailing in last when Special Tiara won at 11/1 as a 10 year old. Who'd have thought that when he was a nailed on certainty?

      And there's nothing more I could write about Put The Kettle On that hasn't already been written. Very few people gave her any chance whatsoever.

      It never pays to write a horse off after one race, and it definitely doesn't pay to ignore the possibility of injuries over a season, and particularly when horses are having their work increased in the lead up to the Festival. This seems to be more true of the Champion Chasers than any other race.
      As stated above I am not writing here off after one run. I am writing her off on all of her form to date for the Arkle.

      1 - Won a Mares Point by 1 1/2 lengths, nothing has come out of that race with a win
      2 - Beaten 18 lengths by Gailliard Du Mesnil (a long way and giving him 7 pounds) will let her off that as its her first start over hurdles but still no where near G1 level
      3 - Won a Mares Maiden. Second hasn't won in rules from 4 runs
      4 - 2nd at Cheltenham. As per post above, form of that race isn't very good so far. First has come out since and been battered 19l, and Tellmesomethinggirl was rated 128 pre Cheltenham. Even after Cheltenham she is only 142, (nowhere near a G1 level mixed gender horse)
      5 - Beaten 18l by Gauloise, again miles away from a horse that shouldn't be winning a G1 in mixed company
      6 - Chase Debut - Beaten by a 130 rated hurdler (142 chaser) and a first time chaser rated 139 over hurdles (Miles from G1 standard)

      Yes you can always forgive a horse 1 run over fences but all of her form says she wont win a G1 against the boys.

      Then what is being said is 'well the Arkle might not be a strong race like when PTKO or DDG won it' but even if some horses drop out there are still plenty that would beat her. Most of the if not all these below would beat her in the Arkle, and at least one will show up:

      Appreciate It
      Bob Olinger
      My Drogo
      Ferny Hollow
      Dusart
      Aspire Tower
      James Du Berlais
      Saint Roi
      Ballyadam
      Blue Lord
      Bear Ghylls
      Adagio
      Elixir d'Ainay
      Boothill
      Third Time Lucki
      Soaring Glory

      It is one of the strongest crops on novice chasers in years, there will be at least one of these horses in the Arkle. If something happens to one of these horses another horse will likely change route and take their place. She won't win the Arkle as there are too many better horses out there, and she will come up against one of them.

      Too many people are trying to compare her with PTKO when there are hardly any similarities. PTKO had won 4 chases out of 4 by this time in her first season chasing!

      She won't win the Arkle as her form has shown she isn't good enough.

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by Winging The Last View Post

        As stated above I am not writing here off after one run. I am writing her off on all of her form to date for the Arkle.

        1 - Won a Mares Point by 1 1/2 lengths, nothing has come out of that race with a win
        2 - Beaten 18 lengths by Gailliard Du Mesnil (a long way and giving him 7 pounds) will let her off that as its her first start over hurdles but still no where near G1 level
        3 - Won a Mares Maiden. Second hasn't won in rules from 4 runs
        4 - 2nd at Cheltenham. As per post above, form of that race isn't very good so far. First has come out since and been battered 19l, and Tellmesomethinggirl was rated 128 pre Cheltenham. Even after Cheltenham she is only 142, (nowhere near a G1 level mixed gender horse)
        5 - Beaten 18l by Gauloise, again miles away from a horse that shouldn't be winning a G1 in mixed company
        6 - Chase Debut - Beaten by a 130 rated hurdler (142 chaser) and a first time chaser rated 139 over hurdles (Miles from G1 standard)

        Yes you can always forgive a horse 1 run over fences but all of her form says she wont win a G1 against the boys.

        Then what is being said is 'well the Arkle might not be a strong race like when PTKO or DDG won it' but even if some horses drop out there are still plenty that would beat her. Most of the if not all these below would beat her in the Arkle, and at least one will show up:

        Appreciate It
        Bob Olinger
        My Drogo
        Ferny Hollow
        Dusart
        Aspire Tower
        James Du Berlais
        Saint Roi
        Ballyadam
        Blue Lord
        Bear Ghylls
        Adagio
        Elixir d'Ainay
        Boothill
        Third Time Lucki
        Soaring Glory

        It is one of the strongest crops on novice chasers in years, there will be at least one of these horses in the Arkle. If something happens to one of these horses another horse will likely change route and take their place. She won't win the Arkle as there are too many better horses out there, and she will come up against one of them.

        Too many people are trying to compare her with PTKO when there are hardly any similarities. PTKO had won 4 chases out of 4 by this time in her first season chasing!

        She won't win the Arkle as her form has shown she isn't good enough.
        And that's what you call an educated/researched choice not to bet.
        Not sure you can say she won't, but she probably won't, will she ?
        I'd price her about 66-1

        Comment


        • #34
          Let me start by saying I'm not proposing Magic Daze as the winner of the Arkle. That job falls to Appreciate it assuming he gets there fit and well. What I'm saying is I think it's a mistake to write a horse off after one run over fences. There have been any number of novice chase winners who have started out like Magic Daze. However I will take issue with the reasons proposed that she shouldn't be anywhere near the race.

          1 - Won a Mares Point by 1 1/2 lengths, nothing has come out of that race with a win
          I'm not sure how winning a race can be put forward to diminish her case? Surely the fact that she's won a point is something you'd put forward to make a case for her jumping ability, and that she may make up into a useful chaser? It certainly doesn't take anything away from her.
          2 - Beaten 18 lengths by Gailliard Du Mesnil (a long way and giving him 7 pounds) will let her off that as its her first start over hurdles but still no where near G1 level
          This is no different to my point about writing a horse after it's first time over fences. Which you both write and then concede.
          3 - Won a Mares Maiden. Second hasn't won in rules from 4 runs
          As you say she then went on to improve significantly second time out in an easier race. She won the race with her head in her chest and could have won by 20 lengths. Surely this doesn't make a case but it certainly doesn't harm it?
          4 - 2nd at Cheltenham. As per post above, form of that race isn't very good so far. First has come out since and been battered 19l, and Tellmesomethinggirl was rated 128 pre Cheltenham. Even after Cheltenham she is only 142, (nowhere near a G1 level mixed gender horse)
          I think it's fair to say that mares coming out of the Mares Hurdle, have been punching above their weight in the last few seasons. I'm also not sure I'd be using Punchestown as a guide to the level of form. Telmesomethinggirl was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time at the end of a long season. I'm guessing you'd forgive Flooring Porter who's performance was significantly worse? Or would you write off his Stayers Hurdle chances next season because he flopped at Punchestown? I could throw out a bunch of stats about horses that placed at the previous Festival, but I'll leave that for another day.
          5 - Beaten 18l by Gauloise, again miles away from a horse that shouldn't be winning a G1 in mixed company
          Yet she beat Gauloise 20 lengths at Cheltenham previously. Surely a case of one underperforming at each course, and the weaker race from each is perhaps not worth taking as literally as you seem to be?
          6 - Chase Debut - Beaten by a 130 rated hurdler (142 chaser) and a first time chaser rated 139 over hurdles (Miles from G1 standard)
          I'm sure I don't need to repeat that it's never worth taking early season chase debuts too seriously, and I'm sure she'll improve next time.

          As I said I'm not pushing her forward as the winner, I'm just not writing her off as a chance of running well in what is usually as small field. You have a fairly lengthy list of Arkle contenders, which is fair enough, but when you look at what may turn up the list gets much smaller:

          Appreciate It - Arkle
          Bob Olinger - Marsh
          My Drogo - Marsh

          Ferny Hollow - Champ Hurlde/Marsh/Arkle
          Dusart - Marsh
          Aspire Tower - Champ Hurdle

          James Du Berlais - Mars/Arkle
          Saint Roi - Who knows
          Ballyadam - Marsh/Arkle
          Blue Lord - Hurldes
          Bear Ghylls - RSA
          Adagio - Who knows
          Elixir d'Ainay - Still alive?!

          Boothill - Who knows
          Third Time Lucki - Arkle
          Soaring Glory - Grand Annual/Arkle

          For me this all leads to the fact that it makes sense to keep an open mind. It won't necessarily be one of the strongest renewals for years as you assert#, and something left-field at this stage may run well in the race. What I'd also say however that having strong opinions can pay off, but in this case we're talking about a horse that is currently 66/1, and not the 3/1 favourite.

          I fully agree though that whatever you think of her you wouldn't be backing her with conviction as the winner of the race. She's merely a possible future contender that connections have said they will aim at the race.
          Last edited by Spectre; 8 October 2021, 09:29 AM.
          Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Quevega View Post

            Except the original post was referring to the arkle and Spectre is waxing lyrical about the Champion chase
            The message is still in there though, I suppose. Just a bit overdone on the Champion chase examples.

            But people need to remember that not everyone is building a book or covering as many bases as everyone else, they're probably making choices earlier that may or may not be proved right.
            It's much easier to back a horse at this point than not too.



            Fair cop Q! Although it's definitely true of the Arkle too. The race often cuts up and small fields are regular.

            Building a book is a red-herring by the way. Having a horse in a book is just one step further than having it in a tracker. I want her onside because the price works for me when I have an open mind, but I may well dump her at some point in the future if she doesn't make the grade. At the moment all I know is that De Bromhead thinks she could, and this is the race she's being targeted at, which is more than can be said for 90% of the other horse named.
            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

            Comment


            • #36
              I agree that price is a big factor here.
              If she were priced at 25/1 after that effort, it may be a different conversation.


              But, you have a named target from a trainer that does well in the race and
              The field does tend to cut-up. You could well have a big price with 3 places available - when less than 8 runners is a distinct possibility.

              (AI could scare a few off, but then they'd bump into Bob O! )



              Comment


              • #37
                I'm really surprised reading through this at the positivity behind Magic Daze.

                If she wins the Arkle on what we've seen so far, then you've got lucky if you're already on.

                Big, big price would be required to back now. She can improve, sure... but nobody would back her on the back on her chase debut, so if you're already on, ask yourself some serious questions about whether you'd back after what you've seen?

                I don't think you could. Next time, and improvement, sure.... but if I stop being polite.... awful bet.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                  I'm really surprised reading through this at the positivity behind Magic Daze.

                  If she wins the Arkle on what we've seen so far, then you've got lucky if you're already on.

                  Big, big price would be required to back now. She can improve, sure... but nobody would back her on the back on her chase debut, so if you're already on, ask yourself some serious questions about whether you'd back after what you've seen?

                  I don't think you could. Next time, and improvement, sure.... but if I stop being polite.... awful bet.
                  An RPR on Chase debut of 128 is horrid for a horse to then go onto win the Arkle, historically and currently probably the best novice chase there is.

                  Even with a 7lb sex allowance, it’s a really low starting point.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                    An RPR on Chase debut of 128 is horrid for a horse to then go onto win the Arkle, historically and currently probably the best novice chase there is.

                    Even with a 7lb sex allowance, it’s a really low starting point.
                    You don't have to go back far Sax. 114 for PTKO on her chase debut, in fact her fourth chase was only 124.
                    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                      You don't have to go back far Sax. 114 for PTKO on her chase debut, in fact her fourth chase was only 124.
                      Its maybe Henry's secret recipe for success.

                      I am not sure many others would want to try and copy it.
                      "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        I'm convinced they will change tactics with MD next time and hold her up. Think they'll up her in distance as well to see if they have a Mares Chase horse. Take Elimay out of the race and it looks very winnable and more winnable than an Arkle. If the tactics are successful then Robcor can do the right thing and let Gin On Lime take her chance in the Arkle. She looks more comfortable dominating from the front and has all the attributes to be competitive in the 2 mile race.

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                          An RPR on Chase debut of 128 is horrid for a horse to then go onto win the Arkle, historically and currently probably the best novice chase there is.

                          Even with a 7lb sex allowance, it’s a really low starting point.
                          Typically based on a brief arkle winners analysis, horses improve 15lb from their chase debut to spring festivals. As you say, mares get the 7lb allowance. Add 22lb to 128 gives her an expected RPR of 150, which would have been placed in 4 or 5 of the last 10 arkles. 2 more were 152RPR in third. Other three were much higher - 158ish.

                          Realistically, we are only looking at the 10/1 place on her I think, but it's still definitely viable as far as I'm concerned. I don't think she will win, but I never really did.

                          Ps - I'm surprised at how polarising the talk has been about magic daze. It's not something I've noticed since I joined - is it usually so black and white on here and I've just missed it?

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Odin View Post
                            Realistically, we are only looking at the 10/1 place on her I think, but it's still definitely viable as far as I'm concerned. I don't think she will win, but I never really did.
                            P
                            You lose the win part so it's only 5/1 the place in an ew bet.

                            Apart from that, Magic Daze won't run in the Mares Chase because she doesn't get the trip.
                            Arkle discussion should be in the Arkle thread.
                            Magic Daze discussion should be in the Grand Annual thread.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Odin View Post

                              Typically based on a brief arkle winners analysis, horses improve 15lb from their chase debut to spring festivals. As you say, mares get the 7lb allowance. Add 22lb to 128 gives her an expected RPR of 150, which would have been placed in 4 or 5 of the last 10 arkles. 2 more were 152RPR in third. Other three were much higher - 158ish.

                              Realistically, we are only looking at the 10/1 place on her I think, but it's still definitely viable as far as I'm concerned. I don't think she will win, but I never really did.

                              Ps - I'm surprised at how polarising the talk has been about magic daze. It's not something I've noticed since I joined - is it usually so black and white on here and I've just missed it?
                              Its odd, as she is 66/1 that anyone should care so much that she wont win the Arkle

                              We have much more sensible things to talk about surely

                              Badly priced horses should be discussions usually started about at the other end of the market - not 66/1

                              "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by archie View Post
                                You lose the win part so it's only 5/1 the place in an ew bet.

                                Apart from that, Magic Daze won't run in the Mares Chase because she doesn't get the trip.
                                Arkle discussion should be in the Arkle thread.
                                Magic Daze discussion should be in the Grand Annual thread.
                                Touch? on both accounts... I'll return to my box!

                                Comment

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