2022 Arkle

[CueCard]

Think everyone is over reacting a little re Magic Daze. It was her first run of the season and she wouldn't be anywhere near fully wound up at this point. A few of Henry's better horses have needed their runs and have appeared to blow up at the end of their races, Annie G being another. Robbie Power was searching for the better ground as Henry has already said very soft ground does not suit her. She deserves another chance. Its March that counts.

Happy to be proved wrong here but it wasn’t the performance of a future Arkle winner in my opinion, especially given the quality of some of the other market principles. I backed her to win, so it was an easy decision for me. I would have been more hesitant on the button if I’d backed her E/W to be fair.

[Istabraq]

Arkle winners have historically been the previous seasons best hurdlers which makes sense, the best horses that learn to jump 18 inches higher will usually be the best chasers.
But, jumping experience is crucial and that’s what early season appearances are all about, this was Magic Daze’s first public appearance and she generally jumped well, if they replicate the PTKO route then you have to take notice.
She will also improve for Rachael’s return as someone pointed out yesterday, it’s too early to rule a horse out for me…

[Quevega]

Magic Daze was 50-1 for a reason.
No point giving up on her now really.
But I don't see the attraction personally, athough their is some merit, you could pluck a few more out of a similar nature.
You takes your chances.

[jack1092]

[QUOTE=Istabraq;n318631
She will also improve for Rachael’s return as someone pointed out yesterday, it’s too early to rule a horse out for me…[/QUOTE]

Seen this said a few times, are we certain she'll even be riding? She did keep some of the bigger rides in those colours last year, but that was in a year where Robbie Power had decided to stay in the UK then flip flopped and returned home. A more settled season might see him take more of the Robcour rides?

[CueCard]

Agreed that 50/1 was a fair reflection on her chances and I'd say 66/1 now is understandable. She will remain on my radar in case connections do indeed follow the PTKO route with her but I'd be playing her E/W if I was to back her in future.

[Spectre]

People forget PTKO was turned over by Robin des Foret in a novice chase. Surely that made PTKO not good enough to win the Arkle. Add to that you’d have thought Magic Daze novice hurdles before the Festival wouldn’t have seen her finish second. Patience, rather than writing her off when it’s barely October feels sensible to me.

[BigChaang]

I thought that Magic Daze debut was satisfactory enough.
Looking at the previous Winners of the Arkle ....
2011 - Captain Chris - 2 ,2 ,2 , - won.
2012 - Sprinteur Sacre - 1,1 ,1 - won.
2013 - Simonsig - 1, 1, 1 - won.
2014 - The horse that can't be mentioned in name - 1 -won.
2015 - Un de Sceaux - F , 1 ,1 ,1 - won.
2016 - Douvan - 1, 1, 1 - won.
2017 - Altior - 1, 1, 1, 1 - won.
2018 - Footpad - 1 ,1 , 1 - won .
2019 - Duc de Genievres - 2 , 3 , 1 - won .
2020 - P.T.K.O - 1 ,1 , 2, 1, 1 - won.
2021 - Shishkin - 1 ,1 , 1 , 1 - won.
So they didn't all win on their first time chasing . , But Cream generally rises to the Top ,. .
I think if she improves next time , she has a chance of being Involved in the Race , and it sound's like this race is the Plan / aim if she's good enough .

[Atlantic Viking]

I haven't written her off or cashed out, just wouldn't have watched it and ever thought Arkle if I hadn't already backed her for it. It was a pleasing enough round of jumping though and a quirky course that I think the jockey got wrong. As someone else said, the not being fit thing is a little bit of a red herring, she's been entered multiple times over the past few weeks so i'm not putting too much into that idea over and above horses obviously not being completely on it at the start of the season.. Horse improves for the run for sure, but improves considerably for the application of R.Blackmore I suspect.

[Leman14]

I haven't written her off or cashed out, just wouldn't have watched it and ever thought Arkle if I hadn't already backed her for it. It was a pleasing enough round of jumping though and a quirky course that I think the jockey got wrong. As someone else said, the not being fit thing is a little bit of a red herring, she's been entered multiple times over the past few weeks so i'm not putting too much into that idea over and above horses obviously not being completely on it at the start of the season.. Horse improves for the run for sure, but improves considerably for the application of R.Blackmore I suspect.

Exactly this

[ComplyOrDie]

First off, to turn up to the Arkle itself she'll obviously need to improve on that first run over fences a fair bit, I also don't see her winning if one of Appreciate It or Ferny Hollow turn up for the race, and in turn I don't see much opposition turning up either if one of them two end up here. The Arkle is usually a small field unless it turns into a weaker race then more seem to appear in it. So we could be sitting on 50/1 tickets for a place in a race with less than 8 runners, for a horse that has previously placed at a festival.

I'm happy to hold on for now.

[Eireman]

The comparisons with Magic Daze and PTKO losing are fair but at the same time PTKO was a 16/1 winner of the arkle. If Appreciate it turns up in an arkle can we really see Magic days even hitting single figures? I think it's more likely she would turn up at the very least the same price as PTKO but probably more for it. Even if she was the same price as PTKO I would rather take 3.2/1 on the place the week of the festival knowing she is definitely going to the Arkle than 10/1 the place six months out not knowing she will even turn up for it.

[Lobos]

If she were mine I'd try a change of tactics next time. Running from the front hasn't been that successful for her. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they held her up on her next run and try to settle her and see how she likes it.

[Lbur4288]

Are there really that many similarities between Magic Daze and Put the kettle on? I posted back in June that I seen a lot of similarities between PTKO and Gin on Lime in the sense they both had reasonable summer campaigns (hence why I considered the Arkle angle) and since we've had some very good insight along with connections comments (such as they see Magic Daze as the better of the two, considered their Arkle horse etc).

I haven't backed Magic Daze for either, I have backed GOL for both and TWAR. I still believe whichever of the two Mullins hotpots turns up here will win and I can see the each way first 3 angle for some at big odds, I just think the comparisons between MD and PTKO are few and far between.

[Lobos]

You are right Lbur4288. There are no similarities at all between MD and Kettle other than their trainer. GOL however has tread an almost identical path to this point. I'm convinced she'll still get an entry in the Arkle trial but the similarities look like stopping there according to HDB and that she'll go to the 2 1/2 mile Novice chase race instead. Magic Daze's opener though may just get connections thinking

[BigChaang]

First off, to turn up to the Arkle itself she'll obviously need to improve on that first run over fences a fair bit, I also don't see her winning if one of Appreciate It or Ferny Hollow turn up for the race, and in turn I don't see much opposition turning up either if one of them two end up here. The Arkle is usually a small field unless it turns into a weaker race then more seem to appear in it. So we could be sitting on 50/1 tickets for a place in a race with less than 8 runners, for a horse that has previously placed at a festival.

I'm happy to hold on for now.

This is how i see it as well C.O.D , and i assume she will get a weight allowance , should she turn up .