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2022 Championship Division

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  • There have been very few quality renewals of the Stayers in recent years, the proper stayers all seem to go chasing unless they’ve proved they can’t jump a fence.
    Are there any decent mares who stay but aren’t quite quick/good enough to lower Honeysuckle’s colours in a champion hurdle ?
    Concertista anyone…

    Comment


    • I don't think Sharjah would see out the trip of the Stayers personally.

      Basing this solely on breeding and his flat runs to date, because, well, we have nothing else to go on, yet. Possibly be worth a crack at something like the Aintree Hurdle, but he's not for me, for something like the Stayers, currently.

      Comment


      • Be interesting to get a price on Kemboy for the Stayers Hurdle. The Mullins team flirted with the idea until late in the day for this years festival and he proved again that he's not built for the Gold Cup. He has undoubted class in a race that perhaps lacks it at this moment in time, but you would like to see him have a hurdle prep over course and distance first..

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
          I've been having a good look at the Stayers Hurdle over the last couple of days, and it's looking a pretty ordinary renewal. No superstar and relatively wide-open. Perhaps even ripe for a shock.

          Looking at the top of the market we have:

          Thyme Hill - Missed the Festival last year, and on his seasons form his level of ability was similar to Paisley Park. A contender yes. But a worth general 5/1 antepost favourite? Certainly not.

          Klassical Dream - A headcase. Has had one race in two years. Could go chasing, Could go over any trip. 4/1 on offer with some bookies is hilarious.

          Galopin Des Champs - Surely goes chasing.

          Flooring Porter - Doubts about his ability to repeat if he's not allowed to dominate from the front. Fair enough each way price.

          The Rest - Failed previously, or not good enough.

          The Alternatives - Abacadabras could come here, as could Mrs Milner, and they're both backable each way with cashout.

          Left Field - I think Sharjah is perfect for the race. Yes he's a solid each way or place bet for the Champion Hurdle, but he's never going to win it unless three or four horses get injured or fall. Every time he's run in the Champion Hurdle he's been staying on strongly. The problem is he's not able to lay up and tends to get slightly outpaced when they go for home early. I suspect as an 8 year old rising 9 by the Festival, the Stayers Hurdle could be absolutely perfect for him, and potentially gives him the chance to get his head in front. Willie and Rich probably haven't even thought about the idea, but I suspect if they did they'd see the sense in it. Solwhit did exactly the same thing. He spent his entire career chasing the arse of the best Champion Hurdle contenders of the time, and did exactly the switch I'm suggesting at the same age. When he did he did it at the first time of asking at his first try over 3 miles. He was a middle distance mile and a halfer on the flat, and most middle distance ex flat horses want a good trip by this stage in their careers. He's not without place, but his racing style suggests he would have no problem with stepping right up. He switches off nicely, and most Stayers Hurdles are run perfectly for his way of racing.

          I'd be interested in any additional thoughts anyone has, and if anyone feels the urge to request a price with a non-365 bookmaker who may be generous with a price, and then asks 365 to follow suit I'd really appreciate it.
          Enjoyed your take on the Stayers Hurdle Spectre and agree it currently looks wide open and ripe for an upset.

          Also like your case for Sharjah but we are in the realms of theory with him and the case may never be put to the test. If Klassical Dream makes it to the start I'd have thought that could sway Willie against giving Sharjah a go here too.

          Like you, I don't feel the current market leaders represent anything like good value (and that includes Flooring Porter) . I wouldn't be rushing to snap up the 33-1 on Mrs Milner at this stage either - although further improvement this season would make her of interest.

          Something unexpected may turn up in the race to turn the market upside-down.

          But for me, the stand-out bet is ABACADABRAS at 33-1 who could be absolutely made for this race.

          Basically, he is a strong traveller/hold-up horse who doesn't have a devastating turn of foot at the end of his races.

          Over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree he was crawling all over them at the second last and stayed on well to win comfortably.

          Just like in the Supreme, Abacabras probably hit the front a shade sooner than Jack (this time, Davy last) would have liked. But Abacadabras is certainly game enough, he doesn't shirk the issue.

          And I reckon the fact that he's very comfortable being held up in a fast run race means he'd handle the Stayers trip without any problems - specially if we get the usual Cheltenham going pattern where things are starting to get a bit quicker by the Thursday.

          Abacadabras has been beaten twice by Honeysuckle (and fell in her CH ) and I don't think super shrewd Gordon will be desperate to take her on again.

          He'll be eight next year and a lot has been made on FJ of late about how horses stay further as they get older.

          Gordon will surely have it in mind to bring him here after the way he performed at Aintree in his first try beyond 2miles and 1/2 a furlong.

          Make no mistake, Abacadabras is a class act.

          He's only raced 12 times over hurdles and if you forgive him the CH fall and a lacklustre 5th in the Matheson last season when he was later found to have muchus in his trachea - he's only been out of the first two once.

          He's won 3 Grade 1s and a Grade 3.

          He's been second in 4 Grade 1s and a Grade 2.

          He has solid Festival form (robbed by Shishkin in the Supreme!!) yet here he is at 33-1 in the betting for what could well be another non-vintage running of the Stayers Hurdle.

          I think he ticks an awful lot of boxes and at 33-1 he's a betting proposition not only as a potential winner but as a juicy long-shot to stick in some multiples.

          I've acted accordingly.

          Comment


          • ….reading Spectre excellent summary, I’ll throw a very speculative dart at one for the Stayers in Donald McCain’s Navajo Pass.

            i know what regard the horse is held in at home & I recall McCain mentioning at one stage he sees its future as a stayer over hurdles. Not in any betting but I watch with interest it’s first entries.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
              There have been very few quality renewals of the Stayers in recent years, the proper stayers all seem to go chasing unless they’ve proved they can’t jump a fence.
              Are there any decent mares who stay but aren’t quite quick/good enough to lower Honeysuckle’s colours in a champion hurdle ?
              Concertista anyone…
              I made a case for Pertempts winner Mrs Milner. Trainer has said she's too high for handicaps now and will tackle Graded races. She'll get the allowances as well which for me is a big plus. The race looks fairly open if you take out last season's easy winner so the big prices about her are interesting that say the least. She'll need to improve again but she's young enough and Flooring Porter did it last season so there's always a chance.

              Comment


              • One that could potentially improve into a graded stayer is Proschema for dan Skelton

                100+ rated stayer on the flat so has plenty of latent ability

                Skelton tried his best to turn him into a 2 miler but he was simply too slow and showed considerable improvement stepped up to 2m4f the last twice winning cosily both times (getting Harry out of trouble on the second occasion)

                See no reason he couldn't improve further as he continues to go up in trip and is only 6 going on 7

                Personally I hope he's plotted at the pertemps but may just be an improver in the paisley park, flooring porter mould

                at 50/1 with Hills next time I walk past I might waste whatever change I have on me
                Last edited by FinalFurlong91; 8 September 2021, 04:46 PM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  I made a case for Pertempts winner Mrs Milner. Trainer has said she's too high for handicaps now and will tackle Graded races. She'll get the allowances as well which for me is a big plus. The race looks fairly open if you take out last season's easy winner so the big prices about her are interesting that say the least. She'll need to improve again but she's young enough and Flooring Porter did it last season so there's always a chance.
                  Yep I can see that Lobos.
                  It seems very plausible that handicappers progress to place in the Stayers so she’s not without hope if coming here.
                  For win purposes you do need that bit of class, after all it’s a G1 championship race, and there don’t seem many obvious candidates this year, I threw Concertista out there as she’s fairly unexposed and does have that class as well as the obvious 7lb pull…

                  Comment


                  • If I was looking at a Stayers chance from Willie, I wouldn't entirely discount Saldier. His only try at the distance was at the end of a campaign built around 2 mile races and his pedigree looks more robust than Sharjah's.

                    Comment


                    • I've had a few quid on CHAMP
                      if he jumps poorly early season, I expect a switch and I think he's an interesting bet
                      Worth a few quid anyway !!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post

                        Enjoyed your take on the Stayers Hurdle Spectre and agree it currently looks wide open and ripe for an upset.

                        Also like your case for Sharjah but we are in the realms of theory with him and the case may never be put to the test. If Klassical Dream makes it to the start I'd have thought that could sway Willie against giving Sharjah a go here too.

                        Like you, I don't feel the current market leaders represent anything like good value (and that includes Flooring Porter) . I wouldn't be rushing to snap up the 33-1 on Mrs Milner at this stage either - although further improvement this season would make her of interest.

                        Something unexpected may turn up in the race to turn the market upside-down.

                        But for me, the stand-out bet is ABACADABRAS at 33-1 who could be absolutely made for this race.

                        Basically, he is a strong traveller/hold-up horse who doesn't have a devastating turn of foot at the end of his races.

                        Over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree he was crawling all over them at the second last and stayed on well to win comfortably.

                        Just like in the Supreme, Abacabras probably hit the front a shade sooner than Jack (this time, Davy last) would have liked. But Abacadabras is certainly game enough, he doesn't shirk the issue.

                        And I reckon the fact that he's very comfortable being held up in a fast run race means he'd handle the Stayers trip without any problems - specially if we get the usual Cheltenham going pattern where things are starting to get a bit quicker by the Thursday.

                        Abacadabras has been beaten twice by Honeysuckle (and fell in her CH ) and I don't think super shrewd Gordon will be desperate to take her on again.

                        He'll be eight next year and a lot has been made on FJ of late about how horses stay further as they get older.

                        Gordon will surely have it in mind to bring him here after the way he performed at Aintree in his first try beyond 2miles and 1/2 a furlong.

                        Make no mistake, Abacadabras is a class act.

                        He's only raced 12 times over hurdles and if you forgive him the CH fall and a lacklustre 5th in the Matheson last season when he was later found to have muchus in his trachea - he's only been out of the first two once.

                        He's won 3 Grade 1s and a Grade 3.

                        He's been second in 4 Grade 1s and a Grade 2.

                        He has solid Festival form (robbed by Shishkin in the Supreme!!) yet here he is at 33-1 in the betting for what could well be another non-vintage running of the Stayers Hurdle.

                        I think he ticks an awful lot of boxes and at 33-1 he's a betting proposition not only as a potential winner but as a juicy long-shot to stick in some multiples.

                        I've acted accordingly.
                        You've made a very persuasive case for abracadabras there, nortons, think i may throw a couple of quid that way.

                        Comment


                        • Abracadabras is a fair shout. It doesn’t appear to be a race connections concentrate on (albeit last season Elliott had 3 solid chances) but you’d think they’d be looking at other options other then the Champion Hurdle. Perhaps they’ll think there’s unfinished business there given he never really got a full chance in the race. But his form throughout the season would put him below the top level at 2 miles.

                          The 16/1 offered by most is far too short but I think 33/1 is a decent price given his overall record (which doesn’t quite warrant the slack he gets). I do have concerns over the race being on the new course. Just the 2 hurdles over the last 6 furlongs isn’t going to help his case given his run style.

                          Comment


                          • I suppose it depends on whether you think he improved for the trip at Aintree or that the race ended up being so bad he won by default

                            Comment


                            • I tweeted on August 25th "I actually like Abacadabras as a stayer. Not saying he will win the Stayers Hurdle but with someone to lead him such as Flooring Porter it will give him a shout.".

                              With limited characters to tweet thats how I see things. Seems to not enjoy actually being in front once he's there but with a distance and a good pace/target then he's a good shout. I've covered for the Stayers, thought I'd already shared that view on here apologies.

                              Comment


                              • No doubt Aintree was a poor grade one. I’m not sure he improved for 2m4 that day, likely that was just his level which turned out to be better than the rest of the field.

                                For me if he can replicate his best form to date over 3 miles that could very well be enough to feature, rather than needing the step up to show improvement.

                                Comment

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