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I wasn't sure where to post my thoughts on this, but I suppose the Mares Hurdle is a championship race of sorts?
With the defection of Black Tears to the breeding sheds, I thought this race was worth spending some time on, and I've come to the conclusion that the mares novice division last year was pretty ordinary apart from two horses that didn't contest the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Festival, Echoes In Rain and Shewearsitwell. I think both would put Telmesomethinggirl away withe ease, and on RP ratings they have 3 or 4 pounds in hand before being stretched. They also have similar ratings to Concertista at the same stage in their careers.
There are horses with increased potential stepping up to two and a half miles, whereas as others mares novice hurdlers look best suited to sticking to two miles. On that basis I'm already convinced that Echoes In Rain will stick at 2 miles and contest the Champion Hurdle and I'll count her out for the purposes of this.
On the other hand Henry was keen to step Mares Novice Hurdle winner Telmesmethinggirl up to three miles in open company against the boys at Punchestown, so he clearly sees her as needing a trip. I do too, and have her in the Roksana mould and think she won't have enough speed to win a Mares Hurdle, and her best chance may be a 7lb concession in open company. The bare form of her Mares Novice Hurdle win is a few pounds behind Concertista's win the previous year, so she also has more to find than I'd like to get to where Concertista is currently. She was a decent winner against the field she faced, but the horses that were 2nd to 5th home and their respective form prior to the race suggests it was a pretty ordinary renewal. Priced as joint favourite for the Mares Hurdle with some bookies alongside Concertista means that, other than for the purposes of making a book, she's not for me at the price.
Second in the Mares Novice, Magic Daze, looks like one that may be better sticking to two miles. Breeding certainly suggests so, and anyway she doesn't look good enough. Third home Mighty Blue is still a novice, and remains interesting for the Mares Novice Hurdle next March, particularly with so much experience under her belt. She'll need a break though as they are still keeping her busy on the flat where she still appears to be improving. Given she's on a handy looking mark, they may try and exploit her hurdles mark in a big handicap somewhere along the way.
There were no obvious excuses for those further down the field, but there are a handful that remain of interest stepped up in trip. Gauloise was a talking horse last season, but was disappointing when it mattered. She does look likely to improve for further, and could come into the reckoning. Despite being much better stepping up in trip at Fairyhouse, she doesn't look obvious value though, and would be Mullins third string for the race at best if the race was run now. She's a watching brief with an open mind I think. The Glancing Queen looks sure to benefit for a step up in trip. King was toying with the idea of running in open company over two and half, and in hindsight rather than stick to the shorter trip, he probably wished he'd taken on Black Tears and Concertista instead. The initial 66/1 and 50/1 has gone already, and she been backed into 33's. But she remains interesting even at that price. Glens Of Antrim remains a novice just like Mighty Blue, and is a must for any Mares Novice Hurdle book. She needs to learn to jump though. But in that respect reminds me very much of Concertista as a second season novice hurdler. She's not one for this race. Finally Royal Kahala isn't without a chance over two and half miles. She needs it, but she also needs to get her toe in, and you'd want soft ground on the first day to be backing her then. That said she'll get plenty of that over the winter, and 25/1 will definitely shorten. She'll knock over a few well fancied horses on winter ground on her way, and will possibly offer a bit of value against horses from the bigger stables.
One that didnt make the Festival, Santa Rossa. is currently 66/1 with some fabulous form in the book, but she lacks experience and it's all about potential with her. They'll need to get on with things and get races under her belt. She's been a bit fragile. Nothing major, just minor hold ups, so you'd want to see a couple of promising runs this side of the new year., and importantly stringing a few races together For me she's not particularly risky to have onside though. If I haven't seen her by late November I can just cash out.
I'm not sure any of those discussed scream out winner though. I think the winner will come from one of two horses, and surprise surprise, they're both with Willie. The first is Shewearsitwell. Due to contest the Royal Bond last season before injury, the word on the street suggested that they regarded her as a Supreme Horse, which marks her out as a cut above the average novice mare even by Willie's standards. She was obviously showing them a lot at home. She does come with a simiar health warning to Santa Rossa though, in that she has an injury to overcome, and is very inexperienced. Again she'll need to be out getting experience fairly early on. On bare form though she's exciting. 14's is easy to take given she has to get a couple of early runs in and will either plummet or will be a cashout job.
Finally I come back to Concertista. A lot has been written about her being disappointing, including on here. I disagree though. The result was disappointing, but she wasn't. She made a mistake at the last which cost her victory on the line. Run the race again without the mistake and she'd be going back in March to defend her title and would be half the price she is now. I'm happy to write off Punchestown where it obviously wasn't her true form, and she was clearly over the top. At 8/1 I'm recommending here as the best value in the current market. The bookies haven't reacted yet to Black Tears being retired, and 8/1 looks much too big for a horse that think should be clear favourite, with only a very inexperienced stablemate who is coming off the back of an injury that seems to have the potential to trouble her. Next March she'll be less than half her current price, and probably shorter than that.
The good thing about this division antepost is that there are rarely any surprises, and the first three home are almost certainly priced up in the current market, so it's a good race to play early. Anyway, in summary tjhis is the way I currently see it:
For the win:
Concertista 8/1 (backed 17/1 and 8/1)
Shewearsitwell 14/1 (backed 22/1 and 14/1)
Mid-market:
No current value
Longshots:
Royal Kahala 25/1
The Glancing Queen 33/1 (backed 66/1)
Santa Rossa 66/1
With the defection of Black Tears to the breeding sheds, I thought this race was worth spending some time on, and I've come to the conclusion that the mares novice division last year was pretty ordinary apart from two horses that didn't contest the Mares Novice Hurdle at the Festival, Echoes In Rain and Shewearsitwell. I think both would put Telmesomethinggirl away withe ease, and on RP ratings they have 3 or 4 pounds in hand before being stretched. They also have similar ratings to Concertista at the same stage in their careers.
There are horses with increased potential stepping up to two and a half miles, whereas as others mares novice hurdlers look best suited to sticking to two miles. On that basis I'm already convinced that Echoes In Rain will stick at 2 miles and contest the Champion Hurdle and I'll count her out for the purposes of this.
On the other hand Henry was keen to step Mares Novice Hurdle winner Telmesmethinggirl up to three miles in open company against the boys at Punchestown, so he clearly sees her as needing a trip. I do too, and have her in the Roksana mould and think she won't have enough speed to win a Mares Hurdle, and her best chance may be a 7lb concession in open company. The bare form of her Mares Novice Hurdle win is a few pounds behind Concertista's win the previous year, so she also has more to find than I'd like to get to where Concertista is currently. She was a decent winner against the field she faced, but the horses that were 2nd to 5th home and their respective form prior to the race suggests it was a pretty ordinary renewal. Priced as joint favourite for the Mares Hurdle with some bookies alongside Concertista means that, other than for the purposes of making a book, she's not for me at the price.
Second in the Mares Novice, Magic Daze, looks like one that may be better sticking to two miles. Breeding certainly suggests so, and anyway she doesn't look good enough. Third home Mighty Blue is still a novice, and remains interesting for the Mares Novice Hurdle next March, particularly with so much experience under her belt. She'll need a break though as they are still keeping her busy on the flat where she still appears to be improving. Given she's on a handy looking mark, they may try and exploit her hurdles mark in a big handicap somewhere along the way.
There were no obvious excuses for those further down the field, but there are a handful that remain of interest stepped up in trip. Gauloise was a talking horse last season, but was disappointing when it mattered. She does look likely to improve for further, and could come into the reckoning. Despite being much better stepping up in trip at Fairyhouse, she doesn't look obvious value though, and would be Mullins third string for the race at best if the race was run now. She's a watching brief with an open mind I think. The Glancing Queen looks sure to benefit for a step up in trip. King was toying with the idea of running in open company over two and half, and in hindsight rather than stick to the shorter trip, he probably wished he'd taken on Black Tears and Concertista instead. The initial 66/1 and 50/1 has gone already, and she been backed into 33's. But she remains interesting even at that price. Glens Of Antrim remains a novice just like Mighty Blue, and is a must for any Mares Novice Hurdle book. She needs to learn to jump though. But in that respect reminds me very much of Concertista as a second season novice hurdler. She's not one for this race. Finally Royal Kahala isn't without a chance over two and half miles. She needs it, but she also needs to get her toe in, and you'd want soft ground on the first day to be backing her then. That said she'll get plenty of that over the winter, and 25/1 will definitely shorten. She'll knock over a few well fancied horses on winter ground on her way, and will possibly offer a bit of value against horses from the bigger stables.
One that didnt make the Festival, Santa Rossa. is currently 66/1 with some fabulous form in the book, but she lacks experience and it's all about potential with her. They'll need to get on with things and get races under her belt. She's been a bit fragile. Nothing major, just minor hold ups, so you'd want to see a couple of promising runs this side of the new year., and importantly stringing a few races together For me she's not particularly risky to have onside though. If I haven't seen her by late November I can just cash out.
I'm not sure any of those discussed scream out winner though. I think the winner will come from one of two horses, and surprise surprise, they're both with Willie. The first is Shewearsitwell. Due to contest the Royal Bond last season before injury, the word on the street suggested that they regarded her as a Supreme Horse, which marks her out as a cut above the average novice mare even by Willie's standards. She was obviously showing them a lot at home. She does come with a simiar health warning to Santa Rossa though, in that she has an injury to overcome, and is very inexperienced. Again she'll need to be out getting experience fairly early on. On bare form though she's exciting. 14's is easy to take given she has to get a couple of early runs in and will either plummet or will be a cashout job.
Finally I come back to Concertista. A lot has been written about her being disappointing, including on here. I disagree though. The result was disappointing, but she wasn't. She made a mistake at the last which cost her victory on the line. Run the race again without the mistake and she'd be going back in March to defend her title and would be half the price she is now. I'm happy to write off Punchestown where it obviously wasn't her true form, and she was clearly over the top. At 8/1 I'm recommending here as the best value in the current market. The bookies haven't reacted yet to Black Tears being retired, and 8/1 looks much too big for a horse that think should be clear favourite, with only a very inexperienced stablemate who is coming off the back of an injury that seems to have the potential to trouble her. Next March she'll be less than half her current price, and probably shorter than that.
The good thing about this division antepost is that there are rarely any surprises, and the first three home are almost certainly priced up in the current market, so it's a good race to play early. Anyway, in summary tjhis is the way I currently see it:
For the win:
Concertista 8/1 (backed 17/1 and 8/1)
Shewearsitwell 14/1 (backed 22/1 and 14/1)
Mid-market:
No current value
Longshots:
Royal Kahala 25/1
The Glancing Queen 33/1 (backed 66/1)
Santa Rossa 66/1
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