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2022 Championship Division

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  • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
    Any thought on any other mares that could come here.
    Minella Melody is one that could have the potential to get close to Elimay if sent chasing. She's by flemensfirth out of a King's Theatre mare so has the pedigree to improve for chasing and is with HDB which is obviously a positive. She looked a bit airy over her hurdles on occasion and looks to have hit her ceiling over hurdles really. She's 7 rising 8 so you'd think that if they were going to go chasing with her that it would be this season.

    She ran to a high 140's rating last year at Xmas and in May, so if she could improve 10lbs for fences that would put her firmly in the mix here. 20's with Betfair/PP but would want to hear something positive from connections first.

    Comment


    • In terms of Royal Kahala, Minella Melody, etc, I think it's very difficult for a novice to win an open race against Elimay. In fact I'm not sure many will try. It's not where I'll be looking unless somethign proves to be exceptional.
      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

      Comment


      • [QUOTE=Lobos;n311016]She was outstayed by Black Tears /QUOTE]

        She certainly wasn't Lobos. Your on the wrong track there. She made a mistake at the last and lost momentum. Without that mistake she would have 'outstayed' Black Tears. She was only beaten a nose. She was the best mare in the race, but didn't get the result.

        Based on last season's race the only danger to her would be a second season mare. She has no chance in the Champion Hurdle.

        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
          In terms of Royal Kahala, Minella Melody, etc, I think it's very difficult for a novice to win an open race against Elimay. In fact I'm not sure many will try. It's not where I'll be looking unless somethign proves to be exceptional.
          I agree Spectre, but the Mares programme is evolving all the time so trends and standard thinking can’t be strictly applied.
          If you have a serious novice mare what do you do with her ? Right now most would have gentle seasons and target the Plate or the Grand Annual as many of their male counterparts have, but it can’t be impossible one or two novices head down the mares chase route, at least until the inevitable mares novice chase is created…

          Comment


          • If I had one that I thought was decent I'd be heading elsewhere and sticking to the mares novice chase programme Istabraq. There's some nice races with excellent prizemoney, with no need to go to Cheltenham. There's a big prize at Thurles at the end of January for Novice Mares, and they have their own championship race at the Punchestown Festival. I'd perhaps take on the boys in a novice chase inbetween wiht such a bi allowance. Newbury and Sandown have nice races over here, and Cheltenham itself has a race in April.
            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

            Comment




            • She certainly wasn't Lobos. Your on the wrong track there. She made a mistake at the last and lost momentum. Without that mistake she would have 'outstayed' Black Tears. She was only beaten a nose. She was the best mare in the race, but didn't get the result.



              Interesting though that Black Tears was behind her in the Novice Mares Hurdle as was Epatante who went on to win the Champion Hurdle. In fact, counting Concertista, 5 Cheltenham Festival winners have come from the 2 Novice Mares Hurdle races she has competed in si to say she has no chance in a Churdle is wide of the mark imo and I suspect you are basing that assumption on her defeats over the Mares Hurdle distance . She wouldn't beat an in form Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle but take her out of the race then she'd have every chance. For me she is better at 2. She won over 1m 1/4 on the flat so she has the speed in her. 2 1/2 stretches her stamina and reduces her main attribution which is her acceleration off a strong pace. You also need to take into account that she was entered for this season's Churdle and after her Fairyhouse win Mullins was seriously looking at taking on the boys in the Irish Churdle. Add that to the fact she's owned by M&S who could be more inclined to have a crack at the Churdle with her especially after falling short this year when a heavy fav. Worth noting too that Paddy Power only go 16/1 on her to win the 2 mile Crown. You can get as high as 40's on her and for me that is worth a couple of shillings of anyone's money. I've covered Honey with her and Echoes In Rain and don't expect to back anything else. Girls, Girls, Girls .
              Last edited by Lobos; 1 July 2021, 07:37 PM.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                Concertista is plenty good enough to be backed to win a Mares Hurdle.

                A best RPP of 154 (twice).

                She has had less runs over Hurdles than Telmesomethinggirl. (9 c/w 10).

                Her first hurdles run ever was when beaten a ShHd in the Cheltenham Mares Novice Hurdle.

                She then won that race the next year, by a street, and followed that with 2nd in the Mares Hurdle by a head.

                Theres not many (any?) horse in training that have ran at the last three Festivals who have won, or been beaten less than a Head, 3 times.

                Be good if the wind-op works.

                They don't declare this in Ireland, to the authorities, do they? Which seems well behind the curve of punters expectations
                .
                Yes Im on here at 10s and think she is a good bet. Worth also just a word of caution they havent said for definite that she will be staying over hurdles, at her age you suspect its a little too late, but Willie hasnt decided yet so just worth factoring in.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                  Interesting though that Black Tears was behind her in the Novice Mares Hurdle
                  Not really though. Black Tears has clearly improved herself for the step up to two and half. To say that is denigrating Black Tears perfromance which I think is very harsh.

                  I've re-watched the race again just to satisfy myself, and it confirms my thoughts that Concertista was the better horse, and Black Tears was a clear beneficiary from her mistake at the last. Concertista showed no sign whatsoever of two and half miles being too far.

                  The pair of thm were clear of Rocksana who had been touted for the Stayers Hurdle,a nd Indefatigable who won the Martin Pipe the previous season, so very celarly outstayed horses that don't lack stamina.

                  In addition to that all of Concertista's highest ratings have come over two and half miles. In essence, the handicapper, Timeform, and RPR agree she's a better horse over the intermediate distance. That's not to say she couldn't drop back to two miles, but it doesn't appear remotely likely she'd get within the same parish as Honeysuckle, and possibly two or three of the newcomers.
                  Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                  Comment


                  • Agree she wouldn't get anywhere near Honeysuckle but then noone else would either. We must remember that Concertista was given an entry in this year's Champion Hurdle and Mullins gave it serious thought after her Leopardstown win of putting her in the Irish Champion Hurdle. It's also worth noting that Paddy Power have her at only 16/1 for next year's Champion Hurdle and that she's owned by M&S who may favour going for the 2 mile Crown after failing in the Mares Hurdle when odds on this year. You can get 40/1 on her for next year's Champion Hurdle which is worth a shilling of anyone's money. I've got her and Echoes In Rain as cover for Honeysuckle and won't be backing anything else in the race. I certainly won't be backing Concertista again for the Mares Hurdle. I too have watched the race again and still half close my eyes hoping she'd not get caught after Leading after the last but Black Tears still picked her off .

                    Comment


                    • Mullins entries are often misleading, he famously entered Vroum Vroum Mag in eight festival races and continues to throw entry fees away like no-one else, the rule change about one declaration a week was, I believe, brought in because of the yards approach to entries.
                      No-one is saying this is wrong, but for me decs are made well into the season so you should have an idea whether your horse will be jumping fences or hurdles and over 16f or 34f…

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                        Agree she wouldn't get anywhere near Honeysuckle but then noone else would either. We must remember that Concertista was given an entry in this year's Champion Hurdle and Mullins gave it serious thought after her Leopardstown win of putting her in the Irish Champion Hurdle. It's also worth noting that Paddy Power have her at only 16/1 for next year's Champion Hurdle and that she's owned by M&S who may favour going for the 2 mile Crown after failing in the Mares Hurdle when odds on this year. You can get 40/1 on her for next year's Champion Hurdle which is worth a shilling of anyone's money. I've got her and Echoes In Rain as cover for Honeysuckle and won't be backing anything else in the race. I certainly won't be backing Concertista again for the Mares Hurdle. I too have watched the race again and still half close my eyes hoping she'd not get caught after Leading after the last but Black Tears still picked her off .
                        It wont be down to Munir & Souede where she goes pal, Willie will 100% decide

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                          Agree she wouldn't get anywhere near Honeysuckle but then noone else would either. We must remember that Concertista was given an entry in this year's Champion Hurdle and Mullins gave it serious thought after her Leopardstown win of putting her in the Irish Champion Hurdle. It's also worth noting that Paddy Power have her at only 16/1 for next year's Champion Hurdle and that she's owned by M&S who may favour going for the 2 mile Crown after failing in the Mares Hurdle when odds on this year. You can get 40/1 on her for next year's Champion Hurdle which is worth a shilling of anyone's money. I've got her and Echoes In Rain as cover for Honeysuckle and won't be backing anything else in the race. I certainly won't be backing Concertista again for the Mares Hurdle. I too have watched the race again and still half close my eyes hoping she'd not get caught after Leading after the last but Black Tears still picked her off .
                          I agree with your point about covering Concertista for the Champion Hurdle at 40/1 Lobos. I did so myself some considerable time ago. As I've said, I just don't think she'll go there.

                          I believe the only serious threat she'll face in the Mares Hurdle is from her own stablemate Shewearsitwell. Telmesomethinggirll may be next best, or something else may improve like Black Tears did. If Willie thinks SWIW is better than Concertista, surely that one would be lining up alongside Echoes In Rain, Sharjah, and whatever the other couple are he throws into the race rather than Concertista? Certainly the impression is that Willie believes SWIW is right up there compared to other mares he's has at the same stage of their careers, given the lofty targets.

                          He'll want insurance though, and the 'been there done that Concertista' who was 1st and 2nd (beaten a nose) in the last two Festivals, and the inexperienced Shewearsitwell who has bags of potential, is the perfect way to go at the race. What would Concertista add to the combination of Echoes In Rain and Sharjah in the Champion Hurdle though? Not a lot I'd suggest, and it would be a waste of a bullet unless someting happened to the other two. And that's why having 40/1 onside each way for the Champion Hurdle is a good idea. It's a big price 'just on case', and not because it's likely they'll set out with the Champion Hurdle as her target.
                          Last edited by Spectre; 2 July 2021, 01:55 PM.
                          Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                            Mullins entries are often misleading, he famously entered Vroum Vroum Mag in eight festival races and continues to throw entry fees away like no-one else, the rule change about one declaration a week was, I believe, brought in because of the yards approach to entries.
                            No-one is saying this is wrong, but for me decs are made well into the season so you should have an idea whether your horse will be jumping fences or hurdles and over 16f or 34f…
                            Didn't a change get made after Nicholls double entered and declared Rigmarole in the Champion Hurdle and County Hurdle then withdrew on the day to leave the weights compressed and Sporazene to take advantage?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by archie View Post

                              Didn't a change get made after Nicholls double entered and declared Rigmarole in the Champion Hurdle and County Hurdle then withdrew on the day to leave the weights compressed and Sporazene to take advantage?
                              Going back some years there archie, could even have been the old 3 day festival that.
                              It’s been rife for years, only the compressed handicaps these days have stopped it…

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

                                I agree with your point about covering Concertista for the Champion Hurdle at 40/1 Lobos. I did so myself some considerable time ago. As I've said, I just don't think she'll go there.

                                I believe the only serious threat she'll face in the Mares Hurdle is from her own stablemate Shewearsitwell. Telmesomethinggirll may be next best, or something else may improve like Black Tears did. If Willie thinks SWIW is better than Concertista, surely that one would be lining up alongside Echoes In Rain, Sharjah, and whatever the other couple are he throws into the race rather than Concertista? Certainly the impression is that Willie believes SWIW is right up there compared to other mares he's has at the same stage of their careers, given the lofty targets.

                                He'll want insurance though, and the 'been there done that Concertista' who was 1st and 2nd (beaten a nose) in the last two Festivals, and the inexperienced Shewearsitwell who has bags of potential, is the perfect way to go at the race. What would Concertista add to the combination of Echoes In Rain and Sharjah in the Champion Hurdle though? Not a lot I'd suggest, and it would be a waste of a bullet unless someting happened to the other two. And that's why having 40/1 onside each way for the Champion Hurdle is a good idea. It's a big price 'just on case', and not because it's likely they'll set out with the Champion Hurdle as her target.
                                And beaten a Short Head on her hurdles debut in the MNH, three Festivals ago.

                                No-one has gone closer to winning at all of the last three Festivals than Concertista.
                                Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 2 July 2021, 08:52 PM.
                                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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