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2022 Championship Division

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  • 2022 Championship Division

    All Championship hurdle, Stayers, Champ chase and Gold Cup discussion

  • #2
    I think most would have a reasonable handle on what they expect in the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but the Stayers is much harder to wrap your head around.

    Flooring Porter I suspect will polarise opinion, largely due to his price being in the 5/1-6/1 region with eleven and half months to go. Some will see him as a good thing with no credible challengers on the horizon, whilst others will see his price as one to take on.

    For me if you're making a book you have to get him onside now before the last of the 6's disappears, and then he's one for multiples. However his style of racing definitely makes him one to to take on, because he surely won't be alowed his own way out front to run the race to suit two seasons running. His profile strongly suggests he needs to be able to dictate the race to be seen at his best. So he'll be tested every time he runs you'd think, and that means he may have some hard races through the season as a consequence.

    Thyme Hill is young enough to improve again, so assuming he stays over hurdles he's another one for anyone making a book. Taking the obvious line through Paisley Park leaves him a bit to find, but he's only had 6 lifetime runs over hurdles (Flooring Porter 15 hurdle runs), and you'd also think connections will feel they have some unfininished business with the race. It was only a muscle pull that kept him out, and nothing that would cause any concern. Indeed they may still target him at the big end of season races, and perhaps head to Punchestown to take on Flooring Porter. Wihtout doubt he's entitled to be a better horse next season, and probably at his peak. He's therefore another that needs to be in a book early. I've taken the shorter 365 odds so I have the cashout option in the unlikely case they talk about heading over fences though.

    It's hard to see how Paisley Park, Sire De Berlais, and Lisnager Oscar, can reverse form whatever happens. 10 year olds haven't won since 1986 so it's not a difficult to put a line through PP and SDB. SDB was the best of them and there's no reason to think he can improve from his 21' performance. Nothing else in behind inspires, and you'd think most will be tryong to work their handicap marks down next season.

    There's one that has run in the race before that aslo missed this seasons race that's of interest. Ronald Pump had a splint which is minor in the scheme of things, and will probably be back before th end of the season. It makes him a forgotten horse though, and he's another to get in the book just in case he runs before the end of the season. Others will have had a long season and a tough race, where he would go to Punchestown fresh and his 14/1 with 365 would quickly be single figures.

    A switch to hurdles was mooted for Champ at one stage, so maybe he comes here next season (20/1 365), and if he does he'd add a different dimension to the race. I wonder of there's anythng else that could come as a switcher from fences. Such horses have done okay in the past. Also horses going up in trip need to be considered. Any ideas from anyone on that score that we can get priced up?

    Nobody would have had a hope of considering Flooring Porter for the race 12 months ago given he'd already raced 8 times over hurdles and was only rated 122, but he has a really unusual profile, and I doubt there's a similar type horse to come through this season. It's not worth expending any energy trying to find a horse with his profile as they are so race. In fact you could probably confine the search to just Cromwell's stable given he seems to have big improvers each season like Darver Star and Espoir D'allen, and now Flooring Porter. Gabynako is probably the next off the conveyor belt, but presumably not here, so what target?

    So it has to be down to horses that didn't run in the race this season to upset the applecart (Thyme Hill and Ronald Pump), or horses that still have improvement in them to take on the favourite. In that case you're looking for a swicher from the Champion Hurdle maybe, or one of this seasons novice hurdlers.

    The only two that would interest me from the Champion Hurdle would be Sharjah and Aspire Tower. Sharjah though will presumably have a third crack at the Champion Hurdle given Willie has shown no signs of upping him in trip, and I'd guess Aspire Tower will go over fences. He would be an intriguing one stepped up to 3 miles though.

    The one that really interests me though is the novice Bear Ghylls. He's bred for the job over three miles, and that was a big race he ran in behind Bob Olinger, who every pundit on the earth had as a cast iron cert and the second coming. Bear Ghylls is far from the finished article, and he looks like he has plenty of improvement to come with the step up in trip and further experience. And some intensive schooling over hurdles won't do any hard, because he was clumsy in the Ballymore, and would have been significantly closer with a clear round. I hate saying this but perhaps a top jockey on board may help too. I'm prepared to take the risk that he spends an extra season over hurdles and aims at a division that'ss crying out for a full changing of the guard. Surely it's a viable option rather than cahsing Bob Ollingers tail again next season. The alternative in novice chases is an RSA that potentially looks choc full of nice chasers, inclusing Bravemansgame who he'd come up against all season long on these shores.

    For any antepost punter, 33/1 with Bet 365 with the benefit of cashout is well worth backing now. Connections aren't experienced handling a good one, so they may not think of the Stayers as his next step, but if they do I'd say he has the perfect profile in a division that needs some fresh blood.

    There are two more I have an eye on, but I'll wait until they're quoted and I'm on before I post further. So the list below is my current shortlist for the race. Does anyone have a horse or horses that they'd add to the list of contenders that haven't already proven to fall short of what's required, or can't show where the required imporvement is coming from?

    Flooring Porter
    Thyme Hill
    Ronald Pump
    Bear Ghylls
    Aspire Tower
    Champ
    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

    Comment


    • #3
      My early musings with a mixture of the short and obvious, with long odds and not!

      Champion Hurdle - Honeysuckle @ 11/4, Concertista @ 40/1, Shewearsitwell @ 50/1.

      I think Honeysuckle will take all the beating again. Mares have now won 50% off the last 6 runnings of this race and my hope is a few more take a crack.

      Stayers Hurdle - Thyme Hill @ 12/1 & Flooring Porter @ 6/1

      Thyme Hill @ 12/1 is very fair. He'll be 8 next year, his injury wasn't serious, his form was great and he's an improver. What was he when ruled out? 5/2?

      Flooring Porter has one way of running and what an asset that is to have around Cheltenham over 3m. He could even improve. Is 6/1 now madness?

      Champion Chase - PTKO @ 10/1 & Energumene @ 14/1
      The bookies can get fucked if they think I'm touching 6/4 about Shishkin this far out, no thank you! Both the above are painfully obvious bets.

      PTKO doesn't know how to lose at Cheltenham and is criminally overlooked time and time again (by me included) and the other was being backed like a serious challenger to Shishkin into 5/2 before being injured but nothing serious. WPM has a deluge of horses for the Ryanair and Energumene looks all speed.

      Gold Cup - Envoi Allen @ 8/1, The Big Getaway @ 66/1, Eklat De Rire @ 66/1

      I'm in love with Envoi Allen, simple as that. The two big priced horses are forgotten, one because he was injured, the other because he fell in the RSA. I think both will emerge as proper forces in the 3m staying division.



      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Spectre View Post
        I think most would have a reasonable handle on what they expect in the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, but the Stayers is much harder to wrap your head around.

        Flooring Porter I suspect will polarise opinion, largely due to his price being in the 5/1-6/1 region with eleven and half months to go. Some will see him as a good thing with no credible challengers on the horizon, whilst others will see his price as one to take on.

        For me if you're making a book you have to get him onside now before the last of the 6's disappears, and then he's one for multiples. However his style of racing definitely makes him one to to take on, because he surely won't be alowed his own way out front to run the race to suit two seasons running. His profile strongly suggests he needs to be able to dictate the race to be seen at his best. So he'll be tested every time he runs you'd think, and that means he may have some hard races through the season as a consequence.

        Thyme Hill is young enough to improve again, so assuming he stays over hurdles he's another one for anyone making a book. Taking the obvious line through Paisley Park leaves him a bit to find, but he's only had 6 lifetime runs over hurdles (Flooring Porter 15 hurdle runs), and you'd also think connections will feel they have some unfininished business with the race. It was only a muscle pull that kept him out, and nothing that would cause any concern. Indeed they may still target him at the big end of season races, and perhaps head to Punchestown to take on Flooring Porter. Wihtout doubt he's entitled to be a better horse next season, and probably at his peak. He's therefore another that needs to be in a book early. I've taken the shorter 365 odds so I have the cashout option in the unlikely case they talk about heading over fences though.

        It's hard to see how Paisley Park, Sire De Berlais, and Lisnager Oscar, can reverse form whatever happens. 10 year olds haven't won since 1986 so it's not a difficult to put a line through PP and SDB. SDB was the best of them and there's no reason to think he can improve from his 21' performance. Nothing else in behind inspires, and you'd think most will be tryong to work their handicap marks down next season.

        There's one that has run in the race before that aslo missed this seasons race that's of interest. Ronald Pump had a splint which is minor in the scheme of things, and will probably be back before th end of the season. It makes him a forgotten horse though, and he's another to get in the book just in case he runs before the end of the season. Others will have had a long season and a tough race, where he would go to Punchestown fresh and his 14/1 with 365 would quickly be single figures.

        A switch to hurdles was mooted for Champ at one stage, so maybe he comes here next season (20/1 365), and if he does he'd add a different dimension to the race. I wonder of there's anythng else that could come as a switcher from fences. Such horses have done okay in the past. Also horses going up in trip need to be considered. Any ideas from anyone on that score that we can get priced up?

        Nobody would have had a hope of considering Flooring Porter for the race 12 months ago given he'd already raced 8 times over hurdles and was only rated 122, but he has a really unusual profile, and I doubt there's a similar type horse to come through this season. It's not worth expending any energy trying to find a horse with his profile as they are so race. In fact you could probably confine the search to just Cromwell's stable given he seems to have big improvers each season like Darver Star and Espoir D'allen, and now Flooring Porter. Gabynako is probably the next off the conveyor belt, but presumably not here, so what target?

        So it has to be down to horses that didn't run in the race this season to upset the applecart (Thyme Hill and Ronald Pump), or horses that still have improvement in them to take on the favourite. In that case you're looking for a swicher from the Champion Hurdle maybe, or one of this seasons novice hurdlers.

        The only two that would interest me from the Champion Hurdle would be Sharjah and Aspire Tower. Sharjah though will presumably have a third crack at the Champion Hurdle given Willie has shown no signs of upping him in trip, and I'd guess Aspire Tower will go over fences. He would be an intriguing one stepped up to 3 miles though.

        The one that really interests me though is the novice Bear Ghylls. He's bred for the job over three miles, and that was a big race he ran in behind Bob Olinger, who every pundit on the earth had as a cast iron cert and the second coming. Bear Ghylls is far from the finished article, and he looks like he has plenty of improvement to come with the step up in trip and further experience. And some intensive schooling over hurdles won't do any hard, because he was clumsy in the Ballymore, and would have been significantly closer with a clear round. I hate saying this but perhaps a top jockey on board may help too. I'm prepared to take the risk that he spends an extra season over hurdles and aims at a division that'ss crying out for a full changing of the guard. Surely it's a viable option rather than cahsing Bob Ollingers tail again next season. The alternative in novice chases is an RSA that potentially looks choc full of nice chasers, inclusing Bravemansgame who he'd come up against all season long on these shores.

        For any antepost punter, 33/1 with Bet 365 with the benefit of cashout is well worth backing now. Connections aren't experienced handling a good one, so they may not think of the Stayers as his next step, but if they do I'd say he has the perfect profile in a division that needs some fresh blood.

        There are two more I have an eye on, but I'll wait until they're quoted and I'm on before I post further. So the list below is my current shortlist for the race. Does anyone have a horse or horses that they'd add to the list of contenders that haven't already proven to fall short of what's required, or can't show where the required imporvement is coming from?

        Flooring Porter
        Thyme Hill
        Ronald Pump
        Bear Ghylls
        Aspire Tower
        Champ
        I had Bear Ghylls along with Metier on my list, the latter i always had as a stayer, was running over 12fs on the flat.

        Comment


        • #5
          are we allowed to talk about the ryanair on this thread

          I like energumene for this especially with already receiving an entry at 2 1/2 miles for fairyhouse. feels they could make a late call on target and therefore likely to shorten significantly for both qmcc and ryanair.

          he was 9/4 against a horse who is 6/4 a year ahead of qmcc so 16s now for ryanair with bet365 feels a good value position to take now.

          its also possible he could only face one 'megastar' as surely allaho and envoi split up and shiskin/monkfish appear to have more certain targets

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by fatherjohn View Post
            are we allowed to talk about the ryanair on this thread

            I like energumene for this
            Of course, we’ll have race threads up later in the year but while traffic is reduced we’ve merged the divisions.

            I don’t disagree Energumene is a serious Ryanair player I just wonder whether connections will be expecting a championship, they weren’t shying away from Shishkin before injury prevented his participation and the vibes were seriously strong so maybe they’ll have a crack at the Champion Chase.
            I doubt he’ll be stepped up greatly so a Gold Cup bid is probably out of the question, Ryanair looks made for him but a 2m bid is possible and therefore a concern...

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by fatherjohn View Post
              are we allowed to talk about the ryanair on this thread

              I like energumene for this especially with already receiving an entry at 2 1/2 miles for fairyhouse. feels they could make a late call on target and therefore likely to shorten significantly for both qmcc and ryanair.

              he was 9/4 against a horse who is 6/4 a year ahead of qmcc so 16s now for ryanair with bet365 feels a good value position to take now.

              its also possible he could only face one 'megastar' as surely allaho and envoi split up and shiskin/monkfish appear to have more certain targets
              There's three things we can be fairly certain of, even now.

              1. Willie will be desperate to win the QMCC as the race continues to elude him
              2. Willie won't face off 'megastars' in the same race, let alone the Ryanair
              3. Willie always picks the most winnable race.

              Loads of 'ifs', 'buts' and 'maybes', but on that basis what horse will Willie make his QMCC horse next year? He has loads of options in the Ryanair, including Allaho who looked to run to the mid 170's and could farm the Ryanair for the next 3 years if staying sound. Is CPS his QMCC horse? Probably not. Min definitely isn't it. What else does he have? Energumene is a supposed tool and they thought he'd lay it down to Shishkin. The absence of a strong QMCC contender, combined with Energumenes reputation, combined with Willies multiple Ryanair options all leads me to think 14/1 about Energumene in the QMCC is a significantly better bet than 16/1 about him ending up the Ryanair.








              Comment


              • #8
                Current TIMEFORM Novice Chase ratings.
                .
                171P SHISHKIN
                167p MONKFISH
                163p ENERGUMENE
                163 ROYALE PAGAILLE
                160P ENVOI ALLEN
                160p GALVIN
                158p CHANTRY HOUSE
                158 ALLMANKIND
                157 COLREEVY (f)
                157 SKY PIRATE
                155p EKLAT DE RIRE
                155 FUSIL RAFFLES
                155 LATEST EXHIBITION
                155 NEXT DESTINATION
                154p ESCARIA TEN
                154 ANDY DUFRESNE
                154 CAPTAIN GUINNESS
                153 ASTERION FORLONGE
                153 CHATHAM STREET LAD
                152p HITMAN
                Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 30 March 2021, 08:07 PM.
                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                Comment


                • #9
                  Current TIMEFORM Top-Rated Open Chasers (inc Top Novices)
                  .
                  178 ALLAHO
                  176 CHACUN POUR SOI
                  175 MINELLA INDO
                  174 A PLUS TARD
                  171P SHISHKIN
                  171 MIN
                  170 AL BOUM PHOTO
                  169 ALTIOR
                  168 KEMBOY
                  168 NATIVE RIVER
                  168 POLITOLOGUE
                  168 SAINT CALVADOS
                  167p MONKFISH
                  167+ CHAMP
                  167 BRISTOL DE MAI
                  166 DELTA WORK
                  166 FRODON
                  166 MELON
                  166 MONALEE
                  166 THE STORYTELLER
                  Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 30 March 2021, 08:10 PM.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Current TIMEFORM top-rated Open Hurdlers (inc Top Novices)
                    .
                    165p HONEYSUCKLE (f)
                    164 FLOORING PORTER
                    162 ARAMON
                    162 SHARJAH
                    161 SIRE DU BERLAIS
                    160p APPRECIATE IT
                    160p ENVOI ALLEN
                    160 BEACON EDGE
                    160 PAISLEY PARK
                    159p BOB OLINGER
                    159p SHISHKIN
                    159 BENIE DES DIEUX (f)
                    159 GOSHEN
                    158 BREWIN'UPASTORM
                    158 THYME HILL
                    157 ABACADABRAS
                    157 JASON THE MILITANT
                    157 PETIT MOUCHOIR
                    156 MCFABULOUS
                    156 MR ADJUDICATOR
                    156 SONG FOR SOMEONE
                    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Again if anyone has more luck than I do adding Burning Victory to the Mares market I’d be very grateful!

                      Im a sucker for Jeremy’s offspring at the minute

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SeanRock View Post
                        Again if anyone has more luck than I do adding Burning Victory to the Mares market I’d be very grateful!

                        Im a sucker for Jeremy’s offspring at the minute
                        I’ve given it a go for you on 365, I might be interested as well depending on price they offer

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Willdunn99 View Post

                          I’ve given it a go for you on 365, I might be interested as well depending on price they offer
                          The traders refused me a few weeks ago so hopefully they’ve loosened their reins on the market since, thanks appreciate the effort mate!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by fatherjohn View Post
                            are we allowed to talk about the ryanair on this thread

                            I like energumene for this especially with already receiving an entry at 2 1/2 miles for fairyhouse. feels they could make a late call on target and therefore likely to shorten significantly for both qmcc and ryanair.

                            he was 9/4 against a horse who is 6/4 a year ahead of qmcc so 16s now for ryanair with bet365 feels a good value position to take now.

                            its also possible he could only face one 'megastar' as surely allaho and envoi split up and shiskin/monkfish appear to have more certain targets
                            Energumene is entered over 2m4f at Fairyhouse because it's the only G1 novice chase at the meeting. The G1s at Punchestown are 2m and 3m1f.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by SeanRock View Post

                              The traders refused me a few weeks ago so hopefully they’ve loosened their reins on the market since, thanks appreciate the effort mate!
                              I asked Sky to quote it yesterday gents - they’ve added it at 20/1...

                              Comment

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