Tracking 2022 Odds

[Saxon Warrior]

…..brilliant stuff & as you say, nice interest if Shishkin goes in.

I actually have bigger returns on the Shishkin CC/Envoi GC double which according to my little black book was 225-1 with Sky & 250-1 Lads in Nov 2020 (not dependent on Arkle/Marsh).

We need to be looking out for those offers as this year progresses but perhaps firms are being cautious after we did so well this year. Bob Ollinger was key for me thanks to its PtP victory being highlighted here. Along with Galvin, they were almost Forum talking horses. Not sure we have established such favourites for next year as yet.

I think Journey With Me could be a good Novice Hurdler, but he is half the odds that Bob Olinger was for the Ballymore at this time last year (and ran a 4lb lower RPR) when winning the same Bumper on debut that Bob O did last season.

Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit are shorter than Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow were for the novice hurdles too.

So the bookmakers have tightened up their long-range antepost prices on the obvious ones this time round.

Galopin Des Champs is 8/1 for the RSA whereas Monkfish was 10/1, 12’s in a place, last summer.

Appreciate It is 3/1 for the Arkle, where Shishkin was 6/1 last season.

Bob Olinger 4/1 for the Marsh is similar to Envoi Allen last year.

This years crop are not obviously better than last years, so it’s bookmakers cuts that are making value harder to find, if the favs for the Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases are the ones that win at the Festival again - which of course, they may not.

[Istabraq]

…..brilliant stuff & as you say, nice interest if Shishkin goes in.

I actually have bigger returns on the Shishkin CC/Envoi GC double which according to my little black book was 225-1 with Sky & 250-1 Lads in Nov 2020 (not dependent on Arkle/Marsh).

We need to be looking out for those offers as this year progresses but perhaps firms are being cautious after we did so well this year. Bob Ollinger was key for me thanks to its PtP victory being highlighted here. Along with Galvin, they were almost Forum talking horses. Not sure we have established such favourites for next year as yet.

Have you avoided restrictions Eggs ?
I seem to remember you copping a few nice ones last year, I’d be surprised if your account wasn’t reviewed…

[Eggs]

Have you avoided restrictions Eggs ?
I seem to remember you copping a few nice ones last year, I’d be surprised if your account wasn’t reviewed…

….I’m delighted to say Sky have restricted my a/c, I felt a bit of a fraud on here having a free ride.

[Eggs]

I think Journey With Me could be a good Novice Hurdler, but he is half the odds that Bob Olinger was for the Ballymore at this time last year (and ran a 4lb lower RPR) when winning the same Bumper on debut that Bob O did last season.

Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit are shorter than Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow were for the novice hurdles too.

So the bookmakers have tightened up their long-range antepost prices on the obvious ones this time round.

Galopin Des Champs is 8/1 for the RSA whereas Monkfish was 10/1, 12’s in a place, last summer.

Appreciate It is 3/1 for the Arkle, where Shishkin was 6/1 last season.

Bob Olinger 4/1 for the Marsh is similar to Envoi Allen last year.

This years crop are not obviously better than last years, so it’s bookmakers cuts that are making value harder to find, if the favs for the Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases are the ones that win at the Festival again - which of course, they may not.

….very useful summary.

On the doubles, I notice Sky have a few on offer but Hills are either very slow with their Specials or not bothering:

Classic Getaway AB/RSA 100-1
Jonbon Supreme/Arkle 66-1

Might actually start a new thread & integrate Special Doubles with the ‘win today’ offers for when they start.

[Saxon Warrior]

….very useful summary.

On the doubles, I notice Sky have a few on offer but Hills are either very slow with their Specials or not bothering:

Might actually start a new thread & integrate Special Doubles with the ‘win today’ offers for when they start.

I would think WH are waiting until the bulk of the flat season is over, before promoting any Cheltenham Specials requests, this time round.

Last Spring/summer they had shops shut for a fair while, and probably pumped up their online markets with mor especially, to keep the money rolling in.

They have restricted me too, so I have to go into a betting shop and use their machine to place anything antepost - which was rather stifled by the Covid restrictions last winter.

The Win Today and the Festival offers are great. Not sure if they start pre-Christmas or not, but look forward to seeing the thread for those - even if I can’t get on with the bookies on many of them.
Hopefully this time the William Hill shops will be open to take one or two that are nicely priced.

[Saxon Warrior]

….very useful summary.

On the doubles, I notice Sky have a few on offer but Hills are either very slow with their Specials or not bothering:

Classic Getaway AB/RSA 100-1
Jonbon Supreme/Arkle 66-1

Might actually start a new thread & integrate Special Doubles with the ‘win today’ offers for when they start.

I’m not sure a horse by Getaway has won a Grade 1 at the Festival, let alone two on the trot.
So I would pass on that one.

They often look good, until the big races come around, and then they can appear to get found out.

I am sure one will breakthrough soon enough, but he is not a NH sire I love to see in a pedigree - just yet.

[Spectre]

He looks to be the best from the Getaway line though, possibly by some margin, and breeding will always make a fool of you. Cheveley know their stuff too and don't appear to be concerned. Plus all the noises out of Willie’s is they think he could be cut above.

I’m also one to use breeding as part of what I do, but I reckon the Mullins camp know when they’ve got a good one.

[Spectre]

I didn’t really make my point there. I think he’s okay to get onside. They’ll place him carefully, and he’ll shorten in the market, so there will be an option to cashout or layoff for a profit if you prefer something else later.

[archie]

A bit like Walk In The Park, there are so many Getaways going through the store sales, it can only be a matter of time before he gets that Cheltenham G1. I avoid Scorpions like the plague but even he broke through in the end.

[Saxon Warrior]

I didn’t really make my point there. I think he’s okay to get onside. They’ll place him carefully, and he’ll shorten in the market, so there will be an option to cashout or layoff for a profit if you prefer something else later.

Yes, I agree he is one for the those that like to make a wide book, to have in their Bartlett team, and he could be the sires breakout horse (recent ones to try were Getabird, Sporting John, The Big Breakaway, Getaway Trump and The Big Getaway), I am not sure he is so much a better prospect than those were through their Novice Hurdles and/or Chases, they looked very good.

One will win at Cheltenham soon enough, if he is covering a lot of NH mares.

My original point was, personally, I am not backing a Getaway to win a Novice Hurdle then a Novice Chase at Cheltenham, in July, before he has hurdled - but I reserve the right to change my mind later on, if new information moves me to.

[Garrison Savannah]

Skybet have finally cut Appreciate It from 10/3 to 3/1 in line with most other major bookmakers.

[Lobos]

Skybet have finally cut Appreciate It from 10/3 to 3/1 in line with most other major bookmakers.

Really want to have an update on him from Mullins. He's been very tight lipped since he was pulled from Punchestown. Not just his well being but whether he stays Hurdling or goes Chasing. Where he ends up will be very significant to my current portfolio and will affect the chances of other horses be it good or bad. I suspect many others on here are in the same boat.

[archie]

Really want to have an update on him from Mullins. He's been very tight lipped since he was pulled from Punchestown. Not just his well being but whether he stays Hurdling or goes Chasing. Where he ends up will be very significant to my current portfolio and will affect the chances of other horses be it good or bad. I suspect many others on here are in the same boat.

The Mullins winter horses have only just come back in from their break. Assuming he was one of them, it will be weeks before he can be assessed in any meaningful way and there will certainly be no decision on his future until October even if they indicate something before then.. I went to see Kemboy in the early October after he ran in the Neptune and he was being aimed at the Stayers Hurdle although he hadn't done any fast work at that stage. A few weeks later he'd impressed in schooling over fences and was set for novice chases.

[Garrison Savannah]

That’s helpful to know - thanks archie

[Spectre]

Yes thanks Archie.

The decision with Appreciate It being simpler than some I suspect, given he's from a Point background and Mullins always suggested he was a chaser. Plus his age suggests waiting another season for fences is unlikely.

The key is he's fit and well, but the suggestion was they drew stumps because of a niggle rather than an injury. Of course anything can happen at any time, but whilst I reserve the right to change my mind, I'm okay with my antepost bets being for the Arkle, and don't feel the need to cover either the Champion Hurdle or up in trip for the Marsh. It's the logical race for him, and I can't imagine anyone at Closutton thinking differently, and they will campaign him that way unless something specific happens to change their mind.