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Lessons learned

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  • Lessons learned

    I’m sure there have been threads like this before (Kev feel free to delete this one if needed!) - but always keen to learn for next year.

    Key ones for me:
    • Coral and Ladbrokes still exist, even though they aren’t on Oddschecker
    • Should have embraced each way more, especially when it was clear there would be small fields (and in without fav markets)
    • Need to find a better way of tracking what I’m doing - iPhone notes and updating on here from a phone really isn’t ideal (and led to me thinking I was doing a lot worse than I actually was before today)
    I’m sure there will be a lot more

  • #2
    I love these threads. Don’t throw baby out with the bath water.

    Not sure why it happened but 365 worked out better than Betfair or sky bet for me in spite of apparently better offers with latter.

    might have been a timing thing-

    cash outs are generally a rip off
    .
    Last edited by Old Vic; 19 March 2021, 08:22 PM.

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    • #3
      It''s really obvious but winning doubles is easier than trebles......bigger stakes on doubles might be a better way forward (or I should be less greedy)

      The win this race and at the festival are good shouts for small stakes betters like myself

      I'm also going to do some more roll ups...starting with shiskin...

      I'm also going to do a few of those bets where 1 pound ew wins you 120,000...I forgot to do those ones this year

      Comment


      • #4
        Take advantage of the any race market more. I bizarrely did this for Ballyadam but not for Appreciate It and Ferny Hollow who I had for Ballymore and Supreme.

        Comment


        • #5
          I definitely agree with the Ew betting for me, I should use that more often. One thing I should consider is handicaps and the fact I hardly won on any of them. I think I was 2/9 and on the day there were so many big price handicap winners. It might be just better to wait till the day and see who’s in form (although if you can see a plot go for it - But at NRNB).

          A spreadsheet is definitely the way forward to track your bets.

          One thing I realised as I marked my best as successful or not was that as they are in order of when I placed them, there were a lot more successful bets that were placed a year in advance than over the rest of the year. Maybe we have just had a one off year this year though where horses that did well last year have won this year

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          • #6
            Have less handicap bets ante post

            The races are so competitive that unless you are really sweet on one you're better off waiting till the day with all the extra places. Quite often the big ante post gambles drift on the day anyway. So unless you're getting 20/1+ on something you think will be single figures its fairly pointless.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
              Have less handicap bets ante post

              The races are so competitive that unless you are really sweet on one you're better off waiting till the day with all the extra places. Quite often the big ante post gambles drift on the day anyway. So unless you're getting 20/1+ on something you think will be single figures its fairly pointless.
              Maybe this year was exceptional but Jeff kidder and Belfast banter wouldnt have got a run most yearss

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              • #8

                WHAT DIDN’T GO WELL:

                I backed far too many singles in the a/r markets. Should’ve been much more selective. Lesson Learned- be much more selective in a/r selections, especially capturing handicappers.

                Lots of selections didn’t make it to the Festival, so backing ‘win only’ for singles this far out will cut my outlay by a third. There are plenty of opportunities in the place market when targets are clear and NRNB is applied. Lesson Learned - back win only until nearer the Festival.

                WHAT WENT WELL:

                Made so much on RaBs. Not just the big bucks multiples (Appreciate It/Bob O @ 200-1 wasn’t the only one I had at those odds), but there were so many individual offers that have been so profitable.

                I’ll put ‘Roll-Ups’ & ‘Win ‘Today’ in the same category. Such a boost. I have a system of using Rob Wright & Paul Kealy naps in roll-ups (every Monday & often other days when I want one onside) & it’s been great for me. The Win Today has been terrific. not sure how many winners but certainly DRF & the likes of The Shunter. Worth waiting for these. Biggest one is still in my bag, 250-1 Cloth Cap to win Ladbroke & GN.

                The a/r is productive for multiples in that short window where Hills allow. So nearly pulled off a big Trixie with Bob O 16. PTKO 20 & TBO 16. Lesson Learned - exploit the Hills a/r multiples.
                Last edited by Eggs; 19 March 2021, 08:57 PM.

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                • #9
                  My big fear is that bookies are on to the Cheltenham specialist:

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
                    My big fear is that bookies are on to the Cheltenham specialist:
                    If they weren't before, they will be now.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
                      My big fear is that bookies are on to the Cheltenham specialist:
                      Yep. I think we need to spend the summer having some discussions about this.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ryanh97 View Post

                        Yep. I think we need to spend the summer having some discussions about this.
                        It's rather a lot of very good info/insight to be out on an open forum, i've always thought. And it always runs the risk of encouraging more to be kept to whatsapp groups and such like. Not sure what you do about it mind, but in the first instance you should at least have to sign up to view anything, in my opinion.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          They look like there trying to put people off for betting early next year. From what I remember:

                          Supreme- You could get Ferny & Appreciate it at about 16/1 around now last year. SG and Kilcruit are best price 6s and 12s

                          Arkle - Could get Shishkin at 10/1 just after supreme did shorten again not long after but AI was 5/1 straight after the race.

                          CH - Epitante was about 5/1 early after she won. Honeysuckle is best price 3/1

                          Ballymore - Bob was 33/1 about this time last year and it could be another none Cheltenham runner that goes there but you would think Kilcruit will be one of the top ones aswell. He’s best price 13/2 and AI and Ferny were about 16/1 at this stage last year.

                          RSA - Monkfish was 10 ish roughly for abit at this point but I think this is much more open next year with no standout horse like Monkfish. Vaillier will go her but will stay abit of a price for the time being as he’s Cromwell trained. Currently BO is fav but he’s like Envoi and will go Marsh instead

                          QM - Well no one was this short last year for any race but Shishkin in ridiculously short now at 7/4 best price

                          Marsh - Even BO is shorter than what Envoi was at this stage. I think he was about 7/8s

                          Ryanair - No idea what it was like last year but no one was as short as 5/1 like Allaho

                          Stayers - Is about the same as last year tbh. Still think that Thyme Hill is the bet atm 14/1. Will shorten up when he goes to Aintree

                          GC - Monkfish is very short at best price 5/1. With MI 8s and Envoi 8s. I’m positive there wasn’t 3 under 10/1 at this point last year. Maybe just ABP.

                          In the end all I can say is the bookies are running scared now

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Atlantic Viking View Post

                            It's rather a lot of very good info/insight to be out on an open forum, i've always thought. And it always runs the risk of encouraging more to be kept to whatsapp groups and such like. Not sure what you do about it mind, but in the first instance you should at least have to sign up to view anything, in my opinion.
                            I would agree with this.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Winging The Last I don’t recall Shishkin or Envoi being any bigger than 6/1, and that lasted until about the Monday!

                              The other but is AI and Bob won a lot more convincingly than Shishkin did for certain

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