January Forum Yankee

[Another Value Loser]

NRNB handicap bet sounds good

Agreed. With the 5 places on offer with the NRNB, option to play it EW too if we were to take a swing at some big prices

[Istabraq]

Agreed. With the 5 places on offer with the NRNB, option to play it EW too if we were to take a swing at some big prices

I think it's just Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook who are NRNB on all races, Betfred NRNB on the four championship races, the bigger issue is the number of horses quoted in some handicap races, most bookies seem well behind where they were last year at this stage....

[Madmoose]

Autumn Evening 33/1 5 places nrnb would be my one.

[Kautostar]

The bosses Oscar - pertemps

[Kautostar]

Cadzand - county hurdle

[somer1]

If we are going for an E/W Yankee how about Ballyadam for the Supreme?

[Kautostar]

If we are going for an E/W Yankee how about Ballyadam for the Supreme?

It’s a handicap Yankee isn’t it?

[RufusFlynn]

Discorama in the Ultima

[ComplyOrDie]

Discorama in the Ultima

Yep, I'll second this

[jonthehammer]

Discorama in the Ultima

To finish second again? That horse just doesn't want to win.

[Captain Chris]

Protektorat - Festival Plate

With novices having such a good record in all the handicaps these days, he seems to hold a big chance. Currently rated 152, Simply the Betts won it last year off 149.
Also entered in the Marsh and RSA, but Skelton has Shan Blue for the former and Protektorat hasn't run over 3 miles yet, so it seems unlikely.
Ignoring his last run around a track that didn't suit - he looked flat out for most of the trip - his chase form reads well.
Comfortably beat Malystic on debut, who has easily won twice since, including a handicap off 140.
Then won on the old course at Cheltenham beating Paint the Dream by 23.5 lengths giving him 5lbs. PTD easily beat a decent Newbury field off 137 nto.
Skelton's had 2 horses in the top 6 of this race last year and could go for it again, but I'd be surprised if Protektorat isn't their main dart.
Currently 14/1 NRNB, which seems fair considering Al Dancer is 12s (?!) and most of those ahead of him in the market are unlikely to run here: Chatham Street Lad, Chantry House, Dickie Diver, Ibleo, Janidil(?), Fanion D'Estruval.

[ComplyOrDie]

School Boy Hours - Kim Muir

Many are keen on Run Wild Fred for the Kim Muir, but School Boy Hours has finished ahead of him twice now this season, albeit one of them runs it looks as though RWF didn't run his race. SBH is also somehow rated 1lb lower than RWF currently, which makes little sense given the runs to date, despite RWF's last performance looking much improved.

SBH has always looked like needing a trip, and his breeding backs that up too.

He's 33's or 14's NRMB for the race.

[Kevloaf]

Midnight Shadow in the Festival Plate is a great bet.

Midnight Shadow @ 20-1 is probably the most over priced well handicapped horse ATM. - Brown advisory.

I mentioned something similar a while back.

It was a strange race (the caspian caviar) that Chatham Street Lad won, and he was penalised massively for his wide margin win.

But take him out of the race and Midnight Shadow would have won by a similar margin as the third was a further 12 lengths back.
He would have been hammered by the handicapper had Chatham fell at the first for example.

There is no doubt the winning distances in the race, need some caution applied.

But Midnight got raised just 1lb.

In behind, we have had three winners since then, Master Tommytucker, Cepage & Annie Mc.
All won races where conditions were more favourable for them but all won well.
And Chatham ran well enough over in Ireland too, against a likely blot.

Good boy bobby runs today (so worth seeing how he does)

In addition to this race, Midnight ran well in the Marsh, and most of that field are now rated in the 160's.

Sue Smith trains so will likely not be a massively backed horse but sooner or later some tipster is going to highlight him.
She's also had horse run well in this race before including a winner.

I'd actually price him up as Favourite, so think the 20-1 or 22-1 boosted is very good value.
He probably won't go off favourite though as he is unfashionable and may still carry a reputation for not finding a great deal, but I think this weakness has gradually improved.

He's entered in the Ryanair and may well run in a graded race before March, but this race is the most likely destination and I'd prefer he went straight there on this mark.
But it's NRNB anyway.

[Kautostar]

Discorama in the Ultima

Will they be going all out to win this? Just a three week turnaround to the grand national...

[jonthehammer]

Botox Has - County 25/1 - Reasoning on the County Thread