2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

[taylorch1990]

I can see the angle with Lord Royal that he'll shorten and people can cash for a profit. Otherwise I couldn't have him for this at all, he's been over rated and doesn't have the form in the book. This year looks potentially a very strong race too. I'd have Galvin, Royal Pagaille, Coko Beach, Dickie Diver, Secret Reprieve and If The Cap Fits all ahead of Lord Royal.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeh it looks a good one this year, but any horse that jumps and finishes as LR did today in that ground should be one in with a fair chance of a big run. Plus you Just never know with these novices over a distance none of them have run over.

[dannycraigpirates]

I can see the angle with Lord Royal that he'll shorten and people can cash for a profit. Otherwise I couldn't have him for this at all, he's been over rated and doesn't have the form in the book. This year looks potentially a very strong race too. I'd have Galvin, Royal Pagaille, Coko Beach, Dickie Diver, Secret Reprieve and If The Cap Fits all ahead of Lord Royal.

Well sure but there’s a reason Lord royal is still the price he is...where as Galvin is 9/2 & Royal Pagaille 11/2 - you know he’s heading to this race, he jumped well, he stayed well, that’s enough to ensure he’s in my book for it

[charlie]

Just watched LR back. Job done. Jumped really well and not given a hard race at all. Closing again the line as well. Imagine he's booked his ticket now and will be Mullins number 1. If that's the case he'll be single figures in the day.

33's into single figures, based just on this in a very completive race, seems completely unrealistic IMO

[Lobos]

33's into single figures, based just on this in a very completive race, seems completely unrealistic IMO

More the Mullins factor Charlie. He does have the look of Chicago Grey to me in that he jumps so well and he looked like he could have gone round again there today. The extra 6f will be right up his street. He has had very little racing too so there could be lots of improvement the come. He'll be very competitive in the race.

[Muswell]

Many factors I guess if most of them stand their ground no, if RP, Coko, Diver go elsewhere and Mullins has a few winners it could happen

[Carnage at Taunton]

Well it would not be the first time a Mullins runner has been latched on to cos he’s a Mullins runner!! End of the day he’s done what I would want to see a horse do to be a contender in a race like this.

[charlie]

More the Mullins factor Charlie. He does have the look of Chicago Grey to me in that he jumps so well and he looked like he could have gone round again there today. The extra 6f will be right up his street. He has had very little racing too so there could be lots of improvement the come. He'll be very competitive in the race.

I didn't say he wouldn't be competitive, I was pointing out that saying definitively that he will be single figures on the day seems a stretch.

[jonthehammer]

I can see the angle with Lord Royal that he'll shorten and people can cash for a profit. Otherwise I couldn't have him for this at all, he's been over rated and doesn't have the form in the book. This year looks potentially a very strong race too. I'd have Galvin, Royal Pagaille, Coko Beach, Dickie Diver, Secret Reprieve and If The Cap Fits all ahead of Lord Royal.

I would also add Longhouse Poet to that list as he has already been ahead of LR this season, he also won a race in which Mr Hendricks pulled up in.

[ToniC]

Coko beach been given 12lb by the handicapper, so would have to run off a weight 1stone+ more than his thyestes winning 138 if he went to the ultima. I’d say it’s now odds on he comes here probably.

[Kevloaf]

Coko beach been given 12lb by the handicapper, so would have to run off a weight 1stone+ more than his thyestes winning 138 if he went to the ultima. I’d say it’s now odds on he comes here probably.

Possible they run here and try and get that mark down?
Or the Ultima...

[ToniC]

Possible they run here and try and get that mark down?
Or the Ultima...

interesting way of looking at it, both worth pennies compared to the national, but you’d think the handicapper likely to trim a couple of lbs at most off the back of 1 poor run, they may be inclined to think a bird in the hand & all that.

[The King Pimm]

I can’t remember Gordon having more than 1 runner in the NHC before?? Ravenhill was not entered until Champagne Classic was injured last year?

At the moment Elliot has Galvin, Coko Beach and possibly Pencilfulloflead, Run Wild Fred and Escaria Ten?? Not sure how much he must rate Galvin’s chances of winning if he’s entering others from his yard even if it’s for different trainers.

2017 - Gordon had 2 runners but that’s the only time

[charlie]

I can’t remember Gordon having more than 1 runner in the NHC before?? Ravenhill was not entered until Champagne Classic was injured last year?

At the moment Elliot has Galvin, Coko Beach and possibly Pencilfulloflead, Run Wild Fred and Escaria Ten?? Not sure how much he must rate Galvin’s chances of winning if he’s entering others from his yard even if it’s for different trainers.

2017 - Gordon had 2 runners but that’s the only time

I think they will be organised like this:

Galvin - NHC
Coko Beach - Ultima then NHC
Pencilfulloflead - RSA over NHC
Run Wild Fred - Kim Muir 99%
Escaria Ten - no idea

[ToniC]

I think they will be organised like this:

Galvin - NHC
Coko Beach - Ultima then NHC
Pencilfulloflead - RSA over NHC
Run Wild Fred - Kim Muir 99%
Escaria Ten - no idea

Not a novice, but Farclas has been in decent form and can probably be put into the mix for the ultima. Aforementioneds last 2 runs have been disappointing, but he could still be off a lenient mark and would get in the Kim Miur. Conflated was trounced in grade 1 company so probably be one for the handicaps of coming over but would probably have the intermediate trip as his distance. Of course they won’t all come over, but it’s a bit of a minefield