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2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

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  • Ultimately this isn't a decision they have to make in January but it must be exciting to have a horse that's come from nowhere to being talked about in these terms.
    Given what we saw yesterday, and Spectre pre race belief, I can't think why I didn't hit him to win yesterday, 11/5 was a steal and I hope a few took advantage...

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

      I was surprised that you didn't think this before the race.
      I think you believed he was still well in and would win the race yesterday, handily enough.

      Myself and Lobos tried to convince you, but you were too stubborn.
      Everything you've just said was valid prior to yesterday's race.
      I just didn't believe they'd go for the race Q. Mostly because I just expected a cosy win, and not hard held on the bridle from three quarters of a mile out. My version of the race saw him going to the NH Chase despite being a Grade 1 horse. I should have done the thinking I did last night last week, and on refelection I'm not sure whether I'm one of these or one of these . I suspect probably both given I didn't cover it nrnb, which was such an easy thing to do.

      On the plus side I used him alongside Rokasana, who I also thought was a shoe in yesterday to get, to finally get Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard, and Zanahiyr onside at around 20's, when I'd previously spent a full seven weeks trying to get myself to press the button on a roll-up. So it wasn't all bad.

      The truth is I make as many mistakes as anyone else, and that one was a howler. Particularly when I had so much faith in the horse!
      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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      • Might end up going off topic here but Gloria Victis could have done exactly the same in a novice race?

        I don't see why that would have an impact myself.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post

          I just didn't believe they'd go for the race Q. Mostly because I just expected a cosy win, and not hard held on the bridle from three quarters of a mile out. My version of the race saw him going to the NH Chase despite being a Grade 1 horse. I should have done the thinking I did last night last week, and on refelection I'm not sure whether I'm one of these or one of these . I suspect probably both given I didn't cover it nrnb, which was such an easy thing to do.

          On the plus side I used him alongside Rokasana, who I also thought was a shoe in yesterday to get, to finally get Appreciate It, Sir Gerhard, and Zanahiyr onside at around 20's, when I'd previously spent a full seven weeks trying to get myself to press the button on a roll-up. So it wasn't all bad.

          The truth is I make as many mistakes as anyone else, and that one was a howler. Particularly when I had so much faith in the horse!

          Yep, you were a little dismissive of Sir Lobos.
          Who, rather like Janet in Grange Hill - "was only trying to help you"

          Which is understandable, but sometimes amongst the things Lobos regularly blurts out, is some sense.
          Hard to believe but true.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
            Might end up going off topic here but Gloria Victis could have done exactly the same in a novice race?

            I don't see why that would have an impact myself.
            Yep, same as the getting bottomed theory.
            Madam.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              Might end up going off topic here but Gloria Victis could have done exactly the same in a novice race?

              I don't see why that would have an impact myself.
              It's the whole thing about jumping coming under pressure at open Grade 1 Championship pace. The second last is completely re-sited these days, and it wasn't just an issue for novices before it was moved.

              These days the fences are at Cheltenham are pretty soft by comparison to back then, and I'd have no qualms on that score personally.
              Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Quevega View Post


                Yep, you were a little dismissive of Sir Lobos.
                Who, rather like Janet in Grange Hill - "was only trying to help you"

                Which is understandable, but sometimes amongst the things Lobos regularly blurts out, is some sense.
                Hard to believe but true.
                I surprised myself with what I came out with about RP's chances of going to the GC. Without Spectre disagreeing, I wouldn't have bothered so it's hopefully helped us all in the long run. He could of course still go NHC but that's probably a very slim chance now. Great debate though. Thoroughly enjoyed it. Let's find another one.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                  I wouldn't have bothered so it's hopefully helped us all in the long run.
                  It didn't help me because I was being too pig-headed!

                  Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                  Comment


                  • Given Venetia playing down Gold Cup in the Guardian I think 3/1 NRNB about RP is a no brainer. If he goes here then I think he goes off a Carefully Selected sort of price

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by charlie View Post
                      I think he goes off a Carefully Selected sort of price
                      The market will be fascinating when that announcement is made charlie, we may just find out how good Elliott and co think Galvin really is...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                        The market will be fascinating when that announcement is made charlie, we may just find out how good Elliott and co think Galvin really is...
                        Absolutely. Galvin wont match RP on ratings, but what he lacks on ratings he will make up for with invaluable Cheltenham experience. My biggest winner of the week is Galvin so I await the news re Royal Pagaille anxiously.

                        Comment


                        • I’ve taken a similar approach Charlie. I have RP @28/1 any race, but started loading up on the 3/1 NRNB for this race.

                          it’s a shot to nothing imo as if he comes here (and I think he will), I’m convinced he will go off shorter.
                          I will lay off the singles to get the stakes back.
                          im also including him in doubles & trebles with shorties I don’t have on board such as CPS as I think he wins this race, and is a good way of boosting their odds.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Brital View Post
                            I’ve taken a similar approach Charlie. I have RP @28/1 any race, but started loading up on the 3/1 NRNB for this race.

                            it’s a shot to nothing imo as if he comes here (and I think he will), I’m convinced he will go off shorter.
                            I will lay off the singles to get the stakes back.
                            .
                            I would be amazed if this wasn't do-able.

                            Comment


                            • Royale Pagaille was 7.4 on the exchanges last night but is now 5.7.

                              Maybe the yard know something

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
                                Royale Pagaille was 7.4 on the exchanges last night but is now 5.7.

                                Maybe the yard know something
                                Makes me laugh when people think a few quid on the exchange is stable money. There was about ?20 at 7.2 and the next price was the current one.

                                Comment

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