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2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

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  • Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
    I think the replacement of amateur riders due to Covid restrictions will encourage better horses to this race this year. In any normal year Galvin would look bomb proof at this stage but can see a few big names turning up here this year. Looking forward to Thursday to see whose still in the mix
    Must be good chance they change this before festival....back to Amateurs

    Cases falling, jabs landing.....won’t be a crowd, but be diff world hopefully by then
    Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

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    • Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
      I think the replacement of amateur riders due to Covid restrictions will encourage better horses to this race this year. In any normal year Galvin would look bomb proof at this stage but can see a few big names turning up here this year. Looking forward to Thursday to see whose still in the mix
      I agree, but of the 'big names' how many of these will end up here? Going through the market:

      Next Destination is a semi big name but will go RSA if Paul sticks to his plan.
      Royalle Pagalle isn't a big name and IMO is overrated
      Dickie Diver has great potential but hasn't even qualified yet and has been off for ages
      Monkfish is an RSA certainty (to run in the race as well )
      Latest Exhibition will probably go round 3 with Monkfish
      Fury Road goes hurdling so not sure why he is quoted
      Secret Reprieve is interesting, but he wouldn't be a big name
      The Big Breakaway might come here, he's a big reputation but form would be a big ? - Tizzard's might go RSA.
      Court Maid - interesting

      I might add Secret Reprieve and Court Maid as cover for Galvin. The former because he's in form and ticks lots of boxes, the latter because that run at Cheltenham was a mighty effort given how soon that race came (12 days I think it was). When 5 or 6 of those runners above come out / don't go, as they invariably will, 16/1 on both will be more than likely single figures, and I can see why both will be popular.

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      • A few English trainers have already said that horses will be entered for races they wouldn't normally be entered for just in case the Irish aren't allowed to travel. So expect lots of and some strange entries !

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        • I might add Escaria Ten to my Galvin bets. In the off chance lightening strikes twice + Galvin doesn't make it for whatever reason, i think he'd be their second choice.

          Stays all day + is a sound jumper. His beginners win received an RPR of 155, seems incredibly high, but i guess 20ls back to 135 and 130 horses (probably didn't run their races all the same) means he gets a high RPR.
          Hey, who knows, if it's not amateur only Gordie might throw him here anyway. Kennedy ride with Davy on Galvin. Wouldn't be awful either.

          He's 16/1 NRNB.

          I see Scooby tweeted Joe Chambers about Five O'Clock asking if he'll be running this season, the reply- fingers crossed. Perhaps he'll run straight away in a qualifier? Perhaps he'll not be aimed here anyway. Worth a mention.

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          • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post
            I might add Escaria Ten to my Galvin bets. In the off chance lightening strikes twice + Galvin doesn't make it for whatever reason, i think he'd be their second choice.

            Stays all day + is a sound jumper. His beginners win received an RPR of 155, seems incredibly high, but i guess 20ls back to 135 and 130 horses (probably didn't run their races all the same) means he gets a high RPR.
            Hey, who knows, if it's not amateur only Gordie might throw him here anyway. Kennedy ride with Davy on Galvin. Wouldn't be awful either.

            He's 16/1 NRNB.

            I see Scooby tweeted Joe Chambers about Five O'Clock asking if he'll be running this season, the reply- fingers crossed. Perhaps he'll run straight away in a qualifier? Perhaps he'll not be aimed here anyway. Worth a mention.
            I like Escaria Ten.

            Thought Pencilfulloflead may well be the more likely 'replacement' if there was one.

            Be a negative for me if Gordon does end up with anything else in the race. I want him with just one, big Galvin-shapred dart.

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            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

              I like Escaria Ten.

              Thought Pencilfulloflead may well be the more likely 'replacement' if there was one.

              Be a negative for me if Gordon does end up with anything else in the race. I want him with just one, big Galvin-shapred dart.
              To be fair, going from Champagne Classic to Ravenhill seemed a fair downgrade in my eyes last year. Ravenhill was never even going for this until like the week or so before.
              Obviously Galvin is the chosen one and would be a shorter price than Escaria Ten would ever be- just taking a NRNB swing just in case.

              Pencilfulloflead surely goes RSA? He'd also need to qualify here, and won't do so running in a Flogas- so if he runs there he's unlikely to be a replacement i'd have thought? All irrelevant if Galvin keeps his wheels on (touch wood!).

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              • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                I like Escaria Ten.

                Thought Pencilfulloflead may well be the more likely 'replacement' if there was one.

                Be a negative for me if Gordon does end up with anything else in the race. I want him with just one, big Galvin-shapred dart.
                Amen all day to this. One horse. One Codd. One winner.

                We need the amateurs back I feel. Really tip the odds in his favour. You just know if its professional jockeys Richard Johnson will lift something home from nowhere to beat Galvin the way Codd crushed me on Discorama. I'm disgusted with myself for even bringing this up, but professional jockeys is to me just as much a downside for Galvin as it is Gordon having more than one runner.

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                • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post

                  To be fair, going from Champagne Classic to Ravenhill seemed a fair downgrade in my eyes last year. Ravenhill was never even going for this until like the week or so before.
                  Obviously Galvin is the chosen one and would be a shorter price than Escaria Ten would ever be- just taking a NRNB swing just in case.

                  Pencilfulloflead surely goes RSA? He'd also need to qualify here, and won't do so running in a Flogas- so if he runs there he's unlikely to be a replacement i'd have thought? All irrelevant if Galvin keeps his wheels on (touch wood!).
                  Yeah fair enough on Escaria Ten, I took a swing at 40/1 right after the race (posted on here, of course), but knowing he could probably go elsewhere. I'd like his chances though if this was a normal edition.

                  Yes I hope you're right regarding Pencilfulloflead, one I have very reluctantly backed NRNB just in case but not at anything like value, just purely as I've got myself in such a good Galvin position I have been a bit defensive.

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                  • Originally posted by charlie View Post

                    Amen all day to this. One horse. One Codd. One winner.

                    We need the amateurs back I feel. Really tip the odds in his favour. You just know if its professional jockeys Richard Johnson will lift something home from nowhere to beat Galvin the way Codd crushed me on Discorama. I'm disgusted with myself for even bringing this up, but professional jockeys is to me just as much a downside for Galvin as it is Gordon having more than one runner.
                    Yeah I agree, I think I've said it a couple of days back (probably in a different thread) but it's a negative without Codd/amatuers... because although Davy or Jack are mustard, they are not further clear of so many of their opponents as Codd is of his... not that Codd can't be beaten of course, but he's just worth a few extra lbs compared to say.


                    Codd has more in hand over Will Biddick
                    than
                    Davy Russell has in hand over Harry Cobden

                    So would Nicholls run something..... that's the issue for me...(extrapolated as far as you want, Patrick and Paul Townend with rides for example, would be awful for Galvin's chances)....

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                    • Patrick would have had a ride anyway?

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                      • Originally posted by Muswell View Post
                        Patrick would have had a ride anyway?
                        Yeah, sorry, Townend and Danny and David Mullins and Mark Walsh then

                        Same point.... it's not a positive.

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                        • Haha yes I hear you

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                          • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post

                            I see Scooby tweeted Joe Chambers about Five O'Clock asking if he'll be running this season, the reply- fingers crossed. Perhaps he'll run straight away in a qualifier? Perhaps he'll not be aimed here anyway. Worth a mention.
                            He’ll need 2 runs don’t forget as per the qualification process, I’m a backer that can’t cash out and really am writing this one off as a loss by now. If he were mine, I’d probably stick to hurdles this season and maybe try and get qualified for the pertemps, but I don't really think that’s willies style.

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                            • Originally posted by ToniC View Post

                              He’ll need 2 runs don’t forget as per the qualification process, I’m a backer that can’t cash out and really am writing this one off as a loss by now. If he were mine, I’d probably stick to hurdles this season and maybe try and get qualified for the pertemps, but I don't really think that’s willies style.
                              I'd imagine Scooby was thinking handicap hurdles when he tweeted.
                              Coral Cup likely option.
                              Mullins has thrown horses into that off long breaks or with one run as a prep before.

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                              • With Galvin and Dickie Diver covered at nice prices I think I am going to have to back Royal Pagaille @ 10/1
                                I was coming on this morning to say 'I don't get the love in re Royal Pagaille', then decided to rewatch that Kempton run and it's basically completely changed my mind. Has won on the bridle vs a horse than won next time out. Jumps a bit to his left which wouldn't be an issue at Cheltenham. Travelled strongly and finished powerfully. Kempton is a flat track but the power in the finish wouldn't leave many doubting further would be an issue. He's 7 and whilst GC makes me laugh (I don't think he's near that standard), the fact its being mentioned would make anyone take notice of the regard they hold him in. RR horse, qualified, looks to stay all day, double figure price - just makes sense doesn't it? (its the sort of bet I wouldn't make and it goes off 9/2 and I kick myself for not taking a larger price).



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