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2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

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  • 2021 National Hunt Novices Chase

    All NH Chase chat here...

  • #2
    Latest exhibition 6/1 nrnb with paddy

    Surely the wrong price, hes a much better horse than galvin and would be a short priced fav if turning up

    Comment


    • #3
      As noted in my diary, Court Maid has been pushed out by both PP (NRNB) & Betfair, to 14/1 & 16/1 respectively. Now unless they've made some sort of error, this would have me believe they know something we may not be privvy to yet.

      I took action, as I managed full stake back, as feel I could soon enough back her again at NRNB, so the risk of her not turning up will be out of the equation.

      Comment


      • #4
        I'm convinced The Big Breakaway should come here. Too slow for RSA so where else will he go ? Native River ran here so that gives me hope. I've also got him in a big TWAR double with Monkfish so he can't go to the RSA Seriously though, he'd be very competitive in this and 8/1 NRNB is decent.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
          As noted in my diary, Court Maid has been pushed out by both PP (NRNB) & Betfair, to 14/1 & 16/1 respectively. Now unless they've made some sort of error, this would have me believe they know something we may not be privvy to yet.

          I took action, as I managed full stake back, as feel I could soon enough back her again at NRNB, so the risk of her not turning up will be out of the equation.
          Good spot CoD. I had Court Maid at 16’s with B365 but just cashed out and added with Powers at 14’s but NRNB. I’m wondering if they’ll have a crack at the Irish National with her instead of Cheltenham or maybe the Ultima instead of the NHC or RSA. I think the visit in December was definitely a practice and they werent giving her a hard time. Would Tony Mullins have access or be able to secure a decent amateur to aim her at the Kim Muir or is her mark too high at 153? Milan Native won off 152 last year, Court Maid has a UK handicap rating now

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
            Latest exhibition 6/1 nrnb with paddy

            Surely the wrong price, hes a much better horse than galvin and would be a short priced fav if turning up
            Just had a point on 6/1 for Latest Exhibition. I can’t see Monkfish going anywhere except the RSA but could see Latest Exhibition maybe going to the NHC if Galvin is the only danger and worth covering.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post

              Just had a point on 6/1 for Latest Exhibition. I can’t see Monkfish going anywhere except the RSA but could see Latest Exhibition maybe going to the NHC if Galvin is the only danger and worth covering.
              Not backed him but can't disagree with that. He really put it up to Monkfish so if he comes here he will go off shorter for sure. He probably should go off fav but Galvin has to be the plot of all plots this season so I doubt it.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
                Latest exhibition 6/1 nrnb with paddy

                Surely the wrong price, hes a much better horse than galvin and would be a short priced fav if turning up
                Racing Post Ratings would disagree that he's a "much better horse", in fact, they have him 1 lb inferior.


                Over hurdles Latest Exhibition achieved more, but he's not as close to Monkfish this season as he was last season either.


                I think 6/1 is bigger than he'd go off, but depends on the jockey for me whether he'd be a short priced fav, or even fav. If Jamie Codd is on Galvin, for Gordon... that's pretty significant.



                Who would you be hoping gets the ride? I'm tempted to add Latest Exhibition myself as even though I don't agree he's a "much better horse", than Galvin, he's certainly good enough to be winning this race and I'd want both onside.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                  Not backed him but can't disagree with that. He really put it up to Monkfish so if he comes here he will go off shorter for sure. He probably should go off fav but Galvin has to be the plot of all plots this season so I doubt it.
                  Can you have the plot of all plots in a graded race?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                    Can you have the plot of all plots in a graded race?
                    Absolutely, and he is it.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Lobos View Post

                      Absolutely, and he is it.
                      A level weights plot ?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                        Racing Post Ratings would disagree that he's a "much better horse", in fact, they have him 1 lb inferior.


                        Over hurdles Latest Exhibition achieved more, but he's not as close to Monkfish this season as he was last season either.


                        I think 6/1 is bigger than he'd go off, but depends on the jockey for me whether he'd be a short priced fav, or even fav. If Jamie Codd is on Galvin, for Gordon... that's pretty significant.



                        Who would you be hoping gets the ride? I'm tempted to add Latest Exhibition myself as even though I don't agree he's a "much better horse", than Galvin, he's certainly good enough to be winning this race and I'd want both onside.
                        Cant see any form galvin has thats close to what latest exhibition has achieved

                        Id say LE is a good few lbs better personally

                        Latest exhibition is a proper grade 1 horse and galvin hasnt shown anything to suggest he is

                        Id also have stamina doubts about galvin personally, he has plenty of pace wouldnt be surprised if he was a little to keen and paid for that at the end of the 3m6f

                        Similar to what carefully selected and OK corral did in the race

                        The point will likely be moot anyway as unless he runs again and gets beaten further by monkfish he must be a likely runner in the RSA

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                          Cant see any form galvin has thats close to what latest exhibition has achieved

                          Id say LE is a good few lbs better personally

                          Latest exhibition is a proper grade 1 horse and galvin hasnt shown anything to suggest he is

                          Id also have stamina doubts about galvin personally, he has plenty of pace wouldnt be surprised if he was a little to keen and paid for that at the end of the 3m6f

                          Similar to what carefully selected and OK corral did in the race

                          The point will likely be moot anyway as unless he runs again and gets beaten further by monkfish he must be a likely runner in the RSA
                          You might not see it, all I'm saying is the RPR figures see it, so I'm happy to contest it's not clear that he's a "much better horse".

                          I think LE is a few lbs better though too, but Galvin hasn't been campaigned to show his full ability until this season. He was plotted towards the Novice Handicap Chase (and ran in to one!) and then the Galway Plate that he missed with a niggle.


                          If he'd been with Paul Nolan, and Latest Exhibition with Gordon, do you think they'd have had the same career paths? I certainly don't, I think Latest Exhibition has had much more opportunity to put up the numbers he has, and has nothing else held back, whereas Galvin almost certainly has a bit more than he's shown so far.

                          ...and yes, I hope he does run in the RSA, certainly has shown he deserves a crack at that race IMO..... Galvin hasn't, but for the reasons I've said above.

                          All in all, I'm still sat with Latest Exhibition sat in my bet slip. I'm actually considering the double NRNB with Monkfish, but that could end up a single on Monkfish at 7/4 which it's much use to anyone!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            LE was a much better Hurdler and could be a better a chaser in time. I think Galvin's extra experience over fences is a massive positive that shouldn't be forgotten. I would favour Galvin in a match in the NHC. If LE did end up here would he be Galvin's biggest competition?

                            Probably would for me.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              It comes down to price I guess

                              I'm assuming you're probably on galvin at 14s or higher so will be highlighting his positives

                              Whereas I'm not in that position so am looking for his weaknesses as a fairly short priced priced fav

                              I just cant get the way he travelled through that 2m4f race last year out of my head

                              Didnt scream dour stayer to me, not surprised he got 3 miles but 3 miles 6 is a lot further and I have enough doubts to be taking him on at the prices

                              Iv only had 2 very small bets so far on latest exhibition and Pencilfulloflead on the exchange at nice prices but cant be sure either will actually run.

                              So this race is a case of wait and see for me at this stage.

                              Comment

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