2021 Arkle Novices Chase

[archie]

[COLOR=#000000][FONT=Arial]I wouldnt even attempt to compare Shishkins run at Kempton to Energumenes at Naas timewise

I'd have left it at that. A pointless exercise.

[Big Bucks]

Is here still the plan BB ?

Imo prob Marsh, but just holding a glimmer of hope he comes here for my pocket!

[Istabraq]

Imo prob Marsh, but just holding a glimmer of hope he comes here for my pocket!

Yeah he wasn’t stopping at Ascot and it would be strange for them to drop back in trip after a performance like that, but they may want to swerve Envoi so I wouldn’t burn the vouchers just yet...

[EnvoyAllen]

I think we are about 20 years behind the times over here, ive noticed this season the phrase "time comparison" has suddenly become mainstream, as if comparing the times of races is something revolutionary that Mick Fitzgerald just discovered.

There is a reason though why time has not been such a big deal in Europe, the style of racing and the diversity of ground conditions and track configurations makes comparison of overall times not very useful, and thats just the flat... on the jumps with the farcical walking starts, gifted leads, inaccurate distances etc theres just very little to be gleaned from a final time. On dirt in America all the tracks are left handed oval, the surfaces are pretty consistent and crucially, races in general are strongly run, overall times are significant and beating a track record is a big deal over there, though speed of the surface does play a part.

To get anything from a time over here there has to be context, to say one race was 8 seconds faster than another tells you nothing really about the difference in quality between the races, for that we need sectionals and for all the effort by a few in the game, most notably Rowlands, we still look a long way off actually implementing that across the board, but we are going in the right direction with time becoming a mainstream talking point.

Its not easy to do, even in America for decades there has been moaning about inaccurate timing data and it continues to this day. The Japanese seem to have it sorted and the Australians also seem to do it pretty well, closing sectional info is standard formbook on racenet, even back when Black Caviar was running, sectionals were already a big deal there. They were going on about her sub 10 second splits while we were guessing most of the time what Frankel was doing. From then to now progress has been quite slow, and for all that we have the best horses and pedigrees in the world, we are absolutely outclassed off the track in so many aspects, weve been depending on our prestige and history. Its been a niche for people over here recording their own data and the few who make it pay probably want us to stay in the dark ages for as long as possible.

I wouldnt even attempt to compare Shishkins run at Kempton to Energumenes at Naas timewise, youd need to have the historic data for both tracks and accurately standardising it isnt straightforward given the wildly different nature of the tracks, thats the downside of the diversity here but its also something we have over the rest of the world and I wouldnt change it to be honest. In my opinion we just need to try and make sectional data recording the "new normal" at as many tracks as possible, firstly to get a good use for that horrendous term, and secondly to give us something to build on.

Just wanted to know generally if who you felt quicker generally?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a degree in equine sports science.

[Istabraq]

Anyone got an update on Klassical Dream ?

[Spectre]

I'm guessing they're still hopeful as he retained his entries in this and the Marsh, whereas The Big Getaway and Ontheropes didn't get entries.

My guess is if they can't get him out in a chase in time he might turn up in the County Hurdle, or even supplemented him for the Champion Hurdle, and then keep his novice chase status intact for what may well be an easier Arkle next season, particularly given the lack of two mile quality amongst this seasons two mile novice hurdlers.

[Istabraq]

Spectre Thank-you.

I think I’m clutching at straws he makes his Arkle appointment,they seem to have great difficulty getting him to a racecourse.
I won’t scrub him from the sheet just yet but I’m
sharpening the pencil...

[Craigy14]

Gowran Park is on the 28th of Jan, there may be the 2m beginners chase Cilaos Emery won couple years ago so fingers crossed Klassical Dream has an entry if the race is run.

[Istabraq]

Gowran Park is on the 28th of Jan, there may be the 2m beginners chase Cilaos Emery won couple years ago so fingers crossed Klassical Dream has an entry if the race is run.

If he was fit to run I would have thought he’d have had DRF entries...

[Craigy14]

If he was fit to run I would have thought he’d have had DRF entries...

I doubt straight into a grade 1 on his first start?

Especially coming back after a slight setback.

[Energumene]

Just wanted to know generally if who you felt quicker generally?

Unfortunately, I don’t have a degree in equine sports science.

From what ive read from people who have looked into it, Shishkins sectionals were impressive compared to Altiors race, and Simon Rowlands has shown Energumenes were impressive compared to a handicap on the same day, so its hard to say, i haven't given it much thought, but it looks like both were high class.

[Spectre]

Spectre Thank-you.

I think I’m clutching at straws he makes his Arkle appointment,they seem to have great difficulty getting him to a racecourse.
I won’t scrub him from the sheet just yet but I’m
sharpening the pencil...

That's exactly where I'm at Istabraq. I almost cashed before the entries just in case, but held on to my Arkle bet and just cashed my Marsh bet. I've not given up hope, but do fear getting caught with the bet.

[Istabraq]

I doubt straight into a grade 1 on his first start?

Especially coming back after a slight setback.

Yeah I get that angle Craigy.

Spectre If he was to appear in the county would you consider backing him ?

[Spectre]

Spectre If he was to appear in the county would you consider backing him ?

I'd take the price as quickly as soon as he's quoted. And I'd keep it. I've had a feeling that either he or Saldier will turn up there for some time.

[Rooster Booster]

I'd take the price as quickly as soon as he's quoted. And I'd keep it. I've had a feeling that either he or Saldier will turn up there for some time.

Cant see it with Saldier personally. If he is in the kind of shape to win the County with his rating then there is only one race he’d be running in imo.