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2021 Arkle Novices Chase

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  • It's hard to get an accurate figure on Shishkin, he's not beaten any horse that's not a 'capper at best yet. He's just outclassed everything.

    Energumene has run away from a graded horse today...


    The problem is of course, I think Energumene would have walloped the 'cappers than Shishkin has, and I think Shishkin would have run away from the graded horse today

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
      It's hard to get an accurate figure on Shishkin, he's not beaten any horse that's not a 'capper at best yet. He's just outclassed everything.

      Energumene has run away from a graded horse today...


      The problem is of course, I think Energumene would have walloped the 'cappers than Shishkin has, and I think Shishkin would have run away from the graded horse today
      We can say the same for Envoi in regards to chasing to date, we obvs know overall both were novice hurdle champs & have looked as good visually chasing,so we expect the 160+ efforts when needed.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
        It's hard to get an accurate figure on Shishkin, he's not beaten any horse that's not a 'capper at best yet. He's just outclassed everything.

        Energumene has run away from a graded horse today...


        The problem is of course, I think Energumene would have walloped the 'cappers than Shishkin has, and I think Shishkin would have run away from the graded horse today
        Gumball probably would have won a G2. Don't think Captain Guiness is much better than him. I'd bet Gumball in a match race. Captain Guiness wont be winning a G1 over fences.

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        • Originally posted by germanshepherd View Post

          Gumball probably would have won a G2. Don't think Captain Guiness is much better than him. I'd bet Gumball in a match race. Captain Guiness wont be winning a G1 over fences.
          I agree. Gumball had some decent form over hurdles including being beaten a head in the greatwood. There probably isn’t that much between him and CG.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by germanshepherd View Post

            Gumball probably would have won a G2. Don't think Captain Guiness is much better than him. I'd bet Gumball in a match race. Captain Guiness wont be winning a G1 over fences.
            I cant be positive but im pretty sure gumballs target is the grand annual or failing that another handicap over two miles, and I think he was ridden with the aim of keeping his mark where it is. He went way too fast early so imo I wouldnt take that form literally. Dont get me wrong im not saying he could put it up to shishkin, all im saying is that captain guinness was trying to win that race today, but I dont think gumball was trying to beat shishkin.

            ​​​​
            Last edited by riccirich; 13 January 2021, 07:32 PM.

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            • Energumene looked good enough today to win many Arkles.....and a RPR of 159 on second start reflects that

              Big thx to whoever put him up early in season and 40s plus

              Shiskin just makes it a long way from average year (his 170 is CC std)...but still think this race might be closer than many think


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              • Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post
                Energumene looked good enough today to win many Arkles.....and a RPR of 159 on second start reflects that

                Big thx to whoever put him up early in season and 40s plus

                Shiskin just makes it a long way from average year (his 170 is CC std)...but still think this race might be closer than many think

                Allmankind and Franco de Port have also posted 159 on their second chase start out of interest.

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                • Energumene at the very least, and especially if he follows up in Dublin, and I can't see any real competition to him there.

                  Will help to hold up Shishkin's price.

                  And also, make the arkle a true test of jumping, as he's close enough on talent so that any jumping errors may be costly to either horse.

                  I do think Shishkin is still very much the one to beat obviously, but at least we may have something to make him go a bit.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Moby123 View Post

                    Allmankind and Franco de Port have also posted 159 on their second chase start out of interest.
                    Both those had optimum conditions I reckon.
                    Allmankind is unlikely to be able to dominate a better field like that.
                    & Franco de Port benifitted from a crazily run race, and his superior staying prowess won him the race.

                    But given certain conditions again, then of course they could run a good race.

                    Comment


                    • Energumene does edge right when he jumps. Was quite pronounced at Gowran.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Moby123 View Post

                        Allmankind and Franco de Port have also posted 159 on their second chase start out of interest.
                        I’d be dubious of Franco de ports RPR for his win at Christmas, that race seemed to fairly fall apart I don’t think you could say much if anything ran to form there. When comparing the times with the handicaps, Energumenes RPR today of 159 seems much more credible than FDPs

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                        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                          Energumene at the very least, and especially if he follows up in Dublin, and I can't see any real competition to him there.

                          Will help to hold up Shishkin's price.

                          And also, make the arkle a true test of jumping, as he's close enough on talent so that any jumping errors may be costly to either horse.

                          I do think Shishkin is still very much the one to beat obviously, but at least we may have something to make him go a bit.
                          Yes, I think it’s going to be a really good renewal, with three or four legitimate challengers to keep Shishkin on his toes.
                          Could be a hell of a rating if the S-bomb wins this race well.

                          He would go an even stronger fav for the Champion Chase 2022.
                          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Outlaw View Post

                            Provisional 159 RPR, certainly looks worthy of high 150s. Good to see something with clear ability throw down a decent next best behind Shishkin albeit he might be not as effective on spring ground.
                            Worth noting Energumene won his PTP over 3m on Good ground, so whilst he may be more effective when it’s testing, I don’t think better ground would be so much of a concern for him

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by AnFiieLD. View Post
                              Worth noting Energumene won his PTP over 3m on Good ground, so whilst he may be more effective when it’s testing, I don’t think better ground would be so much of a concern for him
                              I was waiting for someone to say that... Have you seen the ptp, he would of won it going backwards as nearly all the horses in it have remained ptp or hunter chasers, the odd one who has made the track have ended up 80/90 bar "Ain't no limits" who was 0/9 and awarded a 109 but never competitive. Given he was a 4yo getting 14-21lbs that day it was prob no surprise to them or what most behind him went on to contest.

                              Tom and Sophie said early doors when Blackbow looked like being a decent bumper horse the year he was briefly fav that this lad had more potential thou thought of him as a stayer not a speed horse and whilst looking classy they probably are right.

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                              • Seems to me that many took an early view that Captain Guinness would have been competitive at the finish of the Supreme. No blame attached to that but the fall was a fair way out and there's no knowing how he'd have run up the hill. The evidence from Naas would be, 'not that well'. If we get another small field for this he still has his ew chance but unless one of the principals falls by the wayside it's hard to see him better than 3rd.

                                5/1 NRNB for Energumene looks good for ew multiples.

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