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The Favourites Bin

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  • The Favourites Bin

    We have a banker’s thread and we naturally spend lots of time talking about favourites on individual threads, but I think we need a place to properly bash current favourites and put them in the proverbial ‘bin’. It can sometimes be daunting (present company excluded ) to fly in the face of post-race enthusiasm from seemingly all, or take a different view to most, or just oppose a seriously well fancied favourite on the main forum. So, I thought we needed a thread where people are encouraged to pick holes in current short priced favourites, bash them mercilessly if that’s your vibe, and tell everyone else:

    Why you oppose the current fav…..
    Why the bookies are criminal offering that price……
    Why there is value left in behind a false fav……
    Why we haven’t seen the best of the division yet……
    Why you wouldn’t back the current fav with monopoly money….
    Why historically the stats go against it……
    Why they can’t win……
    Or whatever reason you think supports your opinion…..

    In order to draw meaningful benefit from a thread like this, the ‘why’ is really important E.g., value, ability, competition, target, or a combination of the lot. Pick thin holes! Split hairs! As far as I’m concerned anything at 6/4 now is there to be shot at (barring maybe Envoi Allen – but fu*k it, have a go, that’s what this thread is for).

    Opposing well fancied horses will no doubt evoke a strong defence from some, and that’s all part and parcel of a meaningful debate, but I encourage everyone to remember two things for this thread:
    1. We are NOT talking about ante post prices. If you have Shishkin @ 6/1 for the Arkle then I tip my hat to you and wish you the very best of luck – this is about reasons to oppose current shorties, not defending ante-post positions.
    1. A very gentle reminder (cause I forget too) that odds on/bomb proof/unbeatable/weapons etc, get turned over at Cheltenham, all the time – we must not lose sight of that (4 of the 5 ‘bankers’ lost last year for example)

    I’ll start and set the tone for this thread with two horses I know are very well fancied favourites, so this will be a punchy and quite tasty start…..

    The first horse is Monkfish @ 3/1 for the RSA – he can go firmly go in the bin at that price (it’s simply a price thing for me). A schooling session over 2m5f vs 130’s horse’s in a normal time does not justify 3/1 favouritism for an RSA that looks pretty decent. Take nothing away from that chase debut because he was mightily impressive, but remove the RR colours and WPM and you have a horse that would comfortably be double the price any other year IMO. Can he win the RSA? Yes, of course he can and the army of people on ante-post should ignore what I’m saying because I’d love to be on at a bigger price. The AB form looks very good and this will be his target, but that does not justify his current price IMO. Monkfish, get in the favourites bin please.

    Easysland @ 7/4 can also find the favourites bin. He won the trial last year well and then pissed up in March. The times for both those races were really very slow, and Tiger wasn’t anywhere near his best IMO, and the opposition on both occasions was plain. I am convinced he was ridden on trials day this year to win, and was backed from 5/4 into 8/11 as if defeat was unlikely. For me, Easysland is not a 167 horse. They all race carrying 11-4 in March so you can take or leave the next bit (but for me Easysland has either beat a Tiger Roll that ran to his rating in March and earnt an OR of 167, or he’s beaten a below par Tiger Roll and 167 is inflating his ability. He either runs to a rating of 167, concedes the weight and beats that lot or at least gets a lot closer, or 167 is an inflated rating which is why he couldn’t beat those horses carrying 11-8). He may have needed the run but wasn’t backed like it. So what wins, the honest answer is I don’t know, but I’d happily counter that by saying Easysland could easily beat himself, and seems to escape criticism on the number of mistakes he makes. He failed to complete 1/3 of his starts in France, was bloody lucky not to unseat in March, and made a fair few niggly mistakes on trials day. He’s ground dependent, has mistake’s in him, hasn’t beaten much, IMO disappointed on trials day IF you believe his real rating – so all that @ 7/4 – no thank you. Easysland, get in the favourites bin please.
    Last edited by charlie; 3 December 2020, 11:58 AM.

  • #2
    Not much to say Charlie other than your racing knowledge is a lot better than your ability to count to two


    • #3
      Actually one I will throw into the list is Zanahiyr at 5/1. A shocker of a price.


      • #4
        Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
        Actually one I will throw into the list is Zanahiyr at 5/1. A shocker of a price.
        I’ve read a few comments about how much Zanahiyr needs soft ground to be at his best and there is a chance based on recent festival going that the ground maybe on the better side on the Friday so at 5/1 I’m easing off him for now. Obviously I can’t predict the weather and anything could happen but over the past 3 festivals the ground has improved as the week has progressed.


        • #5
          Imperial Aura at 7s for the Ryanair is very short given we all know no winner of that Novice Handicap Chase (RIP) has ever won another festival race


          • #6
            Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
            Actually one I will throw into the list is Zanahiyr at 5/1. A shocker of a price.
            Good shout MoM. Backing this at 5/1 when ABP is still 6s seems daft


            • #7
              Imperial Aura for me, 7-1 is just too short as I don't think there was much strength in his 2 wins this season and I don't think he's a better horse than Min, Allaho or Samcro.


              • #8
                Chacun Pour Soi is another one of those you wouldn’t touch at the current price given his fragility


                • #9
                  Princess Zoe @ 4/1 with William Hill for the Mares Novice Hurdle.
                  What are the chances that she even shows up?????


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
                    Actually one I will throw into the list is Zanahiyr at 5/1. A shocker of a price.
                    I agree. Goshen was around the 14/1-12/1 mark after two runs, and was winning by 34 & 23 lengths. Zanahiyr has yet to actually beat anything of note, a bit like Goshen at the time, so he should be at least around the same sort of price. Quilixios has done no more or less than Zanahiyr really and is still 12/1.


                    • #11
                      Yes 5/1 is very poor. Its always the race where you still have no idea who will even be running.


                      • #12
                        Good idea for a thread this.

                        I’ll say Chacun pour Soi too.
                        I know he has tremendous talent and may have been unfortunate not to make the trip last year but his lack of career racing will always concern me as will his lack of form against top 2 milers, he looks to be a classic case of being priced on reputation...


                        • #13
                          No interest in Chacun Pour Soi, hasn't done anything exceptional and the price relies on the hope that Altior is well past it.
                          History of being fragile, never even seen Cheltenham (or these shores for that matter) despite now an 8 year old (9th birthday in May, Altior 11 in May). Altior needs no introduction and even below his best, the form should still have him as favourite.
                          CPS form might have looked decent in the week before the festival but we know an awful lot more about Defi and A Plus Tard now. Within this calendar year Altior has shown signs that he's still got it, it would take a hell of a regression between the Newbury race and the festival to justify the prices as they stand.
                          And then you have PTKO, who has an allowance, bags of course form and age on her side. Possibly even most importantly, we've seen she has the mentality too.
                          There's no reason at all that I can see for CPS being a 9/2 fav, i'll take him on all day long.
                          Last edited by Jorvik; 3 December 2020, 09:46 AM.


                          • #14
                            Ballyadam for me. Purely a price thing. Can he win a supreme? Yes but he is going to have to improve and he very well might but I don't believe he has shown anything on the track to warrant being single figures.


                            • #15
                              I've backed him at 5/1, so I really hope he does do the business, but for me, Shishkin at 6/4 is the worst price of the festival at the moment. I still can't quite work out how he managed to win the Supreme given everything that went wrong on the day, and there's no question that he's an extremely talented horse. He jumped very nicely on debut, and I accept that there was a lot to like.

                              However, the eventual second in that race, Mick Pastor, was rated 24lbs lower that Shishkin over hurdles. It's also been quite some time since I've seen such an obvious piece of schooling on a racecourse. In essence, Shishkin beat naff all, and naff all wasn't even trying. For him to be priced up at 6/4 on the back of that run is a gross overreaction. I do not see where Shishkin is going to gain the valuable experience that he will need before taking on the best of the Irish. In the past, Hendo has run some of his best Novices in the Game Spirit, but assuming Altior wins the Tingle Creek, I can't see him letting these two take each other on there. My point is that the first time Shishkin is likely to encounter G1 opposition over fences is in the Arkle itself. Felix Desjy and Unexcepted have already come out and shown themselves to be proficient jumpers with high cruising speeds. The likes of Klassical Dream and Elixir D'Ainay are yet to reappear, but I fancy both of them to be considerably better than anything else this side of the Irish Sea. The Irish horses will gain exposure of the top level by running against one another at Christmas, and frankly, if one of them can come out and put up an authoritative performance against top opposition, based on form alone, they would deserve to be favourite.

                              As i said at the start, I sincerely hope that Shishkin is good enough, but right now, 6/4 looks an awful price.