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What to learn from your Antepost 2017 (with 2018 in mind)

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  • #31
    As the festival is now officially NEXT month, I thought this original post from jono would be worth bumping back up.... as we've had plenty of new members since this was posted....

    Plenty of food for thought, worth reading through in my ever so humble opinion.

    Comment


    • #32
      Cheers for bumping this Kev. Obviously I wasn’t here for this last year but I’ve just read through it and I found some of the things mentioned good insight.

      The Davy russell handicap form at Cheltenham and how well the classier handicap horses do is good insight to know.

      Also, how in hindsight the hype horses from the stables who show little on the track get backed into silly prices. Charli Parcs being a major example last year for the triumph. Looking back at it, even though I was all over Defi that day, it’s incredibke that CP was backed into quite a short priced second favourite. The hype horses of this season so far have been Brain Power and Finians Oscar in my opinion. Both keep being spoken about by connections as world beaters, letting their backers down but then getting backed into stupidly short prices next time our.

      A really good thread.

      Comment


      • #33
        Brilliant, thanks Kev. I too wasn't around for this last year so have just found it fascinating reading all these comments.

        The Davy Russell trend is particularly interesting as only yesterday I was considering backing Ordinary World NRNB for the Grand Annual at 25s. He's been ever present on the horse since the beginning of last season and is up again tomorrow in the Dublin Chase. The same owners won the Grand Annual with Tiger Cry in 2008 and Davy has won the race again since on Savello. 2 from 10 is pretty impressive for a race like this! I like the horse and I think he's all about decent ground and a fast pace. This is all made extra interesting by one of the other trends you guys have mentioned regarding those towards the top of the weights. Off a mark of 149-ish he would clearly be towards the top of the handicap if going down this route.

        Anyway I've sort of digressed as that should probably be in the Grand Annual thread!

        Comment


        • #34
          Good to go through this thread again. Based on what I said on my festival betting last year, at the moment i'm in the following position:

          Will your approach change for 2018?

          154.2pts Staked so far (across 100 bets) vs 64.3pts Staked (across 41 bets)

          Which is +140% staked from the 2017 festival. Will be topped by many on the forum but a big increase this year for myself.
          Now 48% of my bets last year revolved around 3 horses :

          Altior
          Yorkhill
          Douvan

          After the festival, despite them yielding the vast majority of profit, I was unsure whether to continue this on - turns out I have with :

          Buveur D'Air
          Cause of Causes
          Samcro
          Apple's Jade

          Currently / being involved in 60.5pts = 39% of my bets. Back in April 2017 I probably wouldn't have wanted to be in this position with 4 horses making up such a big percentage again BUT all 3 bar arguably Samcro have each been much bigger prices than they should have been for most of the season so not backing them purely on that basis would have been the wrong thing to do. Fingers crossed the approach is rewarding again but even if they all failed, i'd like to think i'd stand by the fact I did the right thinking backing them so often.

          yankees/multiples/ lucky 15's/placepots etc

          48.8pts staked in multiple bets this year which is a lot more that last year (31.6%)

          Weights in the handicaps

          Like a few on the forum I really like the chances of Gold Present in the Ultima this year. He'll be right up there at the top of the weights but it's not something that will make me draw a line through a horse now which would be good news on this bet if he can win off 155 like UTPT did last year.

          Momentum

          I missed it out at the time of posting but on this point - on the Friday, Paul Townend won the County on Arctic Fire and then followed up in the very next race after when winning on Penhill in the Albert Bartlett (he did the same on the Tuesday in 2015 on Glens Melody and then Irish Cavalier). Will make sure I keep an eye on this during the week.

          Supreme

          Made a complete mess of the Supreme last year which meant I ended up having only Crack Mome as an antepost bet and adding Pingshou on the morning of the race. My Supreme bets so far have been:

          Annamix
          Claimintakinforgan
          Getabird
          If The Cap Fits

          So heavily reliant on Mullins and Henderson continuing their fantastic place rate.

          High OR in the 4 miler

          Still plenty can change in this race still. Right now Presenting Percy (157) would be top OR if running and would likely win but is RSA bound. Invitation Only (153) and Black Corton (155) go elsewhere. Rathvinden (152) as Scooby highlighted could well end up top rated. Then you have a certain Elegant Escape (150)...come on Colin...do the right thing!

          Horses who are tackling a 'targeted race' at the second attempt

          Singlefarmpayment, Ivanovich Gorbatov or Le Prezien this year?

          Ultima - Singlefarmpayment 5/1Fav 2017, Currently 14/1 for 2018 race
          Coral Cup - Tombstone 7/2Fav
          Pertemps - Impulsive Star 8/1Fav
          Plate - Diamond King 5/1Fav
          Kim Muir - Sqouateur 5/1Fav
          County - Ivanovich Gorbatov 5/1Fav, Currently 25/1 for the 2018 race OR 33/1 for the Coral Cup
          Martin Pipe - Battleford 9/2 / Coo Star Sivola 13/2
          Grand Annual - Le Prezien 7/2Fav, Currently 40/1 for 2018 race (more likely up in trip?)

          They won't be lining up in the same race but Ivanovich Gorbatov, Tombstone, Impulsive Star, Coo Star Sivola, Le Prezien could all feature in other races this year

          Biggest Mistakes

          Charli Parcs and believing the hype was probably the biggest mistake. Looks i'll be adding Finian's Oscar (8pts in singles + 5pts in multiples) to the 2018 version

          Samcro would be the other obvious horse where the hype has played a part...but that WILL come good
          Last edited by jono; 2 February 2018, 09:02 PM.

          Comment


          • #35
            This is a great thread with loads of useful info, thanks for bumping Kev and for your latest update post Jono. I was actually planning on suggesting something similar after this year's Festival but of course you guys already had one up and running. I look forward to adding some thoughts in the wake of this year's Festival

            Comment


            • #36
              Just read this thread from the start. Took me ages but well worth it. Cheers lads, was very well put together and a very enjoyable read!

              I think looking back at my bets for this year I have possibly backed a few too many multiples (again) if I’m honest. Also think I need to start doing more e/w bets too as last year had lots of places and only a large bet on Defi saved my festival.

              This year I have far too many multiples including Samcro (Ballymore)and COC which hopefully won’t end in tears.

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by jono View Post

                Horses who are tackling a 'targeted race' at the second attempt

                Singlefarmpayment, Ivanovich Gorbatov or Le Prezien this year?

                Ultima - Singlefarmpayment 5/1Fav 2017, Currently 14/1 for 2018 race
                Coral Cup - Tombstone 7/2Fav
                Pertemps - Impulsive Star 8/1Fav
                Plate - Diamond King 5/1Fav
                Kim Muir - Sqouateur 5/1Fav
                County - Ivanovich Gorbatov 5/1Fav, Currently 25/1 for the 2018 race OR 33/1 for the Coral Cup
                Martin Pipe - Battleford 9/2 / Coo Star Sivola 13/2
                Grand Annual - Le Prezien 7/2Fav, Currently 40/1 for 2018 race (more likely up in trip?)

                They won't be lining up in the same race but Ivanovich Gorbatov, Tombstone, Impulsive Star, Coo Star Sivola, Le Prezien could all feature in other races this year
                Squouateur surely a MASSIVE qualifier in this case jono..... 5/1f last year in the Kim Muir, Unseated.... Currently 6/1f though so hardly worth doing anything about!

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                  Squouateur surely a MASSIVE qualifier in this case jono..... 5/1f last year in the Kim Muir, Unseated.... Currently 6/1f though so hardly worth doing anything about!
                  Very true!! Not sure how I missed that one

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                    I'm only just coming out of my depression 3 days after it finished.

                    I loved every minute of this year's festival even though it was a losing one for me. I had far too many ante post multiples and will be having less of these in future. I lost 35 points on multiples in total and a further 30 points on non runners.

                    Next year I'll try and be more selective but it's easier said than done.
                    Lucky that theory went out the window

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by intheshuck View Post

                      Lucky that theory went out the window
                      "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by intheshuck View Post

                        Lucky that theory went out the window
                        Haha - I was obviously talking bollocks

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post

                          Haha - I was obviously talking bollocks
                          It shows how most gamblers can be influenced by recency bias, in regards our strategy, hence the likely increase in number of mulitples that many will indulge in this season. Many will probably overdo it.
                          When in actual fact, it would probably be sensible to view it as a one off and a balanced approach is still best. Unless the trend is long term/sustained or measurable.

                          It reminds me of when we used to play cricket as a kid, and the playing fields were surrounded by shrubs and bushes.

                          If we lost a cricket ball in the bushes, one of the options !! we used to try and find it, after initially scroaming around for ages with no joy, was to throw our only other spare ball into the bushes in approximately the same place we saw the last one go in, at the approximate same speed and height !!! - smart kids, we thought it through

                          Now it doesn't take a genius to work out that probably the least likely outcome is that the ball lands in exactly the same place as the original one. And it doesn't take much more thought that even if it did, we probably wouldn't find it anyway as we couldn't find the first one.

                          So all we were doing in reality was risking losing our spare ball.
                          And of course we were being absolutely fucking stupid.

                          The problem is, if it works once, by chance, it seems a good idea.

                          Please say, if anyone has ever tried this tactic to find a lost ball.
                          Then I'll feel better, that it wasn't just us.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                            It shows how most gamblers can be influenced by recency bias, in regards our strategy, hence the likely increase in number of mulitples that many will indulge in this season. Many will probably overdo it.
                            When in actual fact, it would probably be sensible to view it as a one off and a balanced approach is still best. Unless the trend is long term/sustained or measurable.

                            It reminds me of when we used to play cricket as a kid, and the playing fields were surrounded by shrubs and bushes.

                            If we lost a cricket ball in the bushes, one of the options !! we used to try and find it, after initially scroaming around for ages with no joy, was to throw our only other spare ball into the bushes in approximately the same place we saw the last one go in, at the approximate same speed and height !!! - smart kids, we thought it through

                            Now it doesn't take a genius to work out that probably the least likely outcome is that the ball lands in exactly the same place as the original one. And it doesn't take much more thought that even if it did, we probably wouldn't find it anyway as we couldn't find the first one.

                            So all we were doing in reality was risking losing our spare ball.
                            And of course we were being absolutely fucking stupid.

                            The problem is, if it works once, by chance, it seems a good idea.

                            Please say, if anyone has ever tried this tactic to find a lost ball.
                            Then I'll feel better, that it wasn't just us.
                            That's a belter

                            I'm fairly sure you're the only kids that adopted that strategy! Was it your idea Q?

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              We couldn't afford a Spare Ball ,

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                                It shows how most gamblers can be influenced by recency bias, in regards our strategy, hence the likely increase in number of mulitples that many will indulge in this season. Many will probably overdo it.
                                When in actual fact, it would probably be sensible to view it as a one off and a balanced approach is still best. Unless the trend is long term/sustained or measurable.

                                It reminds me of when we used to play cricket as a kid, and the playing fields were surrounded by shrubs and bushes.

                                If we lost a cricket ball in the bushes, one of the options !! we used to try and find it, after initially scroaming around for ages with no joy, was to throw our only other spare ball into the bushes in approximately the same place we saw the last one go in, at the approximate same speed and height !!! - smart kids, we thought it through

                                Now it doesn't take a genius to work out that probably the least likely outcome is that the ball lands in exactly the same place as the original one. And it doesn't take much more thought that even if it did, we probably wouldn't find it anyway as we couldn't find the first one.

                                So all we were doing in reality was risking losing our spare ball.
                                And of course we were being absolutely fucking stupid.

                                The problem is, if it works once, by chance, it seems a good idea.

                                Please say, if anyone has ever tried this tactic to find a lost ball.
                                Then I'll feel better, that it wasn't just us.
                                If we couldn't find a ball within 2 mins the batter was out and spare would be used, hit a car on the full out, house on the full out, auto WK the wall or fence panel behind. It was like having Jack Russell covering around to backwards point, couple all that with using those orange kwik balls that swung like a prime Akram/Younis it was very difficult to get past double digits on our street . Needless to say we all ended up bowlers and our local club had many at batting collapse ala England vs Aussies 90s style.

                                Comment

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