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2023 Ryanair

ComplyOrDie

ComplyOrDie

Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
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All things Ryanair Chase related, here….

Current Odds (top prices):
Allaho 7/4
Galopin Des Champs 6/1
Shishkin 8/1
Ferny Hollow 14/1
Edwardstone 16/1
Bravemansgame 16/1
18/1 bar

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON JANUARY 3rd with supplementary entries on March 10th
CHELTENHAM Thursday, March 16th THE RYANAIR STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1) (Registered as The FESTIVAL TROPHY) (Grade 1) (GBB RACE) TOTAL RACE VALUE ?375,000 Distributed in accordance with the Stakes and Prize Money Code
?211,012 to the winning horse
The second to receive ?79,500,
the third ?39,787,
the fourth ?19,875,
the ffth ?9,975,
the sixth ?4,987,
the seventh ?2,475
the eighth ?1,275
for fve yrs old and upwards, which are allotted a rating or an assessment of 130 or more by the BHA Handicapper, taking account of races run up to and including the day prior to confrmation TWO MILES ABOUT FOUR AND A HALF FURLONGS (2m 4f 127yds) Enter by noon, January 3rd and pay ?468 stake Scratch by noon, February 7th or pay ?939 Confrm by noon, March 10th and pay ?468 Supplementary Entry by noon, March 10th and pay ?15,620 stake Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 14th
Weights: 5-y-o..........11st 8lb;
6-y-o and up.............11st 10lb
Mares allowed .......... 7lb
 
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Fingers crossed this year allaho actually loses his reappearance run which he always badly needs and gets pushed out in price

The unreliable asterion forlonge ruined this plan last year
 
I have this feeling that Galopin Des Champs will come here.

He was going to be an emphatic winner of the Turners, but for a fall. He just reminded me a little of Vautour, in his win, and we know where he ended up, despite RR saying the now famous line of 'Gold Cup or nothing'.

Allaho will have this one year to go for a Gold Cup (based on his age), IMO, so that has to be in the mind of connections, I would imagine.
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
I have this feeling that Galopin Des Champs will come here.

He was going to be an emphatic winner of the Turners, but for a fall. He just reminded me a little of Vautour, in his win, and we know where he ended up, despite RR saying the now famous line of 'Gold Cup or nothing'.

Allaho will have this one year to go for a Gold Cup (based on his age), IMO, so that has to be in the mind of connections, I would imagine.
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Would Cheveley park run both a plus tard and allaho in the gold cup ? It's possible and would be allaho's probable last chance in a gold cup, as you say but I'd still have them down for the same races as this year. Agree totally with the gdc vautour comparison.
 
I can't agree with the Vautour comparison. His breeding doesn't scream stayer but Galopin Des Champs won a G1 hurdle over 3 miles. Also, when he won at the DRF over 2m5.5f, he could have gone round again, it took so long for PT to pull him up.

If A Plus Tard gets to Cheltenham in one piece, Allaho will surely go for a historic hat-trick in this race.
 
archie said:
I can't agree with the Vautour comparison.
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I probably didn't make the point well, but I meant in the manner of which Galopin was going to dispatch of the field in the Turners, but for the fall. Vautour won his JLT by 15 lengths, Galopin was 12 lengths clear at the last, both recorded RPR's in the mid 170's and officially rated 2lb different after their respective runs in the race.

I think the comparison was fair, but the execution of explaining it was poor from me :highly_amused:
 
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Watched an interview last season where the question was posed to Willie and he was clearly very much in favour of Allaho staying here. Comments along the lines of him finding his niche and being peerless at it, so why mess around with that?! Something happening to APT or Cheveley really pushing for it is the only way I see a switch. There was a similar question posed to CPS last season and I recall them saying along the lines of it being an option for this coming season but very much more of a 'we'll see' than a plan. There's already comments out there from Willie seeing GDC as a GC horse too. Long season ahead of course...
 
archie said:
I can't agree with the Vautour comparison. His breeding doesn't scream stayer but Galopin Des Champs won a G1 hurdle over 3 miles. Also, when he won at the DRF over 2m5.5f, he could have gone round again, it took so long for PT to pull him up.

If A Plus Tard gets to Cheltenham in one piece, Allaho will surely go for a historic hat-trick in this race.
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This is how I see it to

Galopin seems to take half a mile to pull up after every race, id be a little surprised if he didnt stay the trip

very possible they will both reappear in the john durkan id think as Willie starts plenty of his in that race
 
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If smashing shorties ante post is your thing then Allaho has to be the best opportunity you'll ever get isn't he ?
He's turned this race into absolute processions twice, no reason to believe this seasons renewal with have anything that can get closer than those before them.
At the same price Constitution Hill (Champ Hurdle) has to be a far riskier proposition so, for me, 7/4 Allaho for this has the look of a serious lump job even allowing for all the usual ante post risks....
 
Istabraq said:
If smashing shorties ante post is your thing then Allaho has to be the best opportunity you'll ever get isn't he ?
He's turned this race into absolute processions twice, no reason to believe this seasons renewal with have anything that can get closer than those before them.
At the same price Constitution Hill (Champ Hurdle) has to be a far riskier proposition so, for me, 7/4 Allaho for this has the look of a serious lump job even allowing for all the usual ante post risks....
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I'm gunna hold out and hope he's beat on 1st outing and get a bigger price, worked well last season this tactic :uncomfortableness::biggrin-new:
 
This far out the Ryanair chase looks as tricky as ever. I know from past experience on the Forum that many of you can’t abide past trends as a guide to the future but I still thought it might be worth sharing the info below.

I realise it’s been ages since I posted anything (due to other priorities) but I have been lurking with interest and I'm delighted to see so many familiar faces still debating with such vigour and expertise.

I have updated my analysis of this race from a couple of years ago to get a better understanding of the past winners (ages, official ratings, SPs), how the Favourites got on and also an indication as to whether running in this race the year before is significant.

There have now been 18 runnings of this race over the intermediate distance of 2m 5f (registered as The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase).

Winners

2005 - Thisthatandtother - Age 9 - OR 155 - SP 9/2 - 12 ran
2006 - Fondmort - Age 10 - OR 157 - SP 100/30 Joint Fav - 11 ran
2007 - Taranis - Age 6 - OR 157 - SP 9/2 - 9 ran
2008 - Our Vic - Age 10 - OR 165 - SP 4/1 - 9 ran
2009 - Imperial Commander - Age 8 - OR 156 - SP 6/1 - 10 ran
2010 - Albertas Run - Age 9 - OR 162 - SP 14/1 - 13 ran
2011 - Albertas Run - Age 10 - OR 166 - SP 6/1 - 11 ran
2012 - Riverside Theatre - Age 8 - OR 168 - SP 7/2 Fav - 12 ran
2013 - Cue Card - Age 7 - OR 165 - SP 7/2 - 8 ran
2014 - Dynaste - Age 8 - OR 169 - SP 3/1 Fav - 11 ran
2015 - Uxizandre - Age 7 - OR 161 - SP 16/1 - 14 ran
2016 - Vautour - Age 7 - OR 176 - SP Evens Fav - 15 ran
2017 - Un De Sceaux - Age 9 - OR 171 - SP 7/4 Fav - 8 ran
2018 - Balko Des Flos - Age 7 - OR 166 - SP 8/1 - 6 ran
2019 - Frodon - Age 7 - OR 169 - SP 9/2 - 12 ran
2020 - Min - Age 9 - OR 170 - SP 2-1 - 8 ran
2021 – Allaho – Age 7 – OR 162 – SP 3-1 Fav – 11 ran
2022 – Allaho – Age 8 – OR 174 – SP 4-6 Fav – 7 ran

In respect of Age, 7 years olds have done comparatively well, winning 33% overall and 6 of the last 10 renewals.

The Age profile of winners and runners is as follows.

Age 6 = 1 win / 18 races = 5.5% of races from only 10 runners (5.5% of the total).
Age 7 = 6 wins / 18 races = 33% of races from 31 runners (16.5% of the total).
Age 8 = 3 wins / 18 races = 16.5% of races from 59 runners (31.5% of the total).
Age 9 = 4 wins / 18 races = 22% of races from 46 runners (24.5% of the total).
Age 10 = 3 wins / 18 races = 16.5% of races from 26 runners (13.5% of the total).
Age 11 and over = 0 winners from 18 runners (8% of the total).

The number of runners per race has ranged from 6 to 15 which averages 10.5 runners. 72 % of the races had 8-12 runners.

In the 18 Runnings, the Favourites have won 7 times (including 1 Joint Favourite) and been placed 6 times (2nd x 4 , 3rd x 2). Backing these Favourites at SP win only 1 point level stakes would have incurred bets of 19 points with a return of 23.24, resulting in a net profit of 4.24 points (Allaho has accounted for 2 consecutive wins for the Favourite).

The SP of the Winner has ranged from 4-6 (Allaho) to 16-1 Uxizandre, with only 2 winners being in double figures. 50% of Winners had an SP in the range 3-1 to 9-2.

The pre-race Official Rating of the Winner has ranged from 155 to 178 (Allaho), averaging 165. Four of the first 5 runnings of the race were won by horses rated in the 150s but none since 2009, so the OR has drifted upwards averaging 167.5 since then.

In respect of horses returning to run in the race the following year. Of the 180 horses between 2005 and 2021 which potentially could have run in the race the following year only 37 did, which equates to around 20% (and averages 2 per year). Of these 37 returning runners, there were 5 winners of 17 races (30%) with Albertas Run and Allaho being the only dual winners. Backing them all blindly at SP 1 point win level stakes would have incurred bets of 37 points with only 22.99 in return.

As to my main conclusions :
# 7 year olds have statistically won more races than other Age groups but overall the Age range 7-9 has won 78% of races and the last 11 renewals.
# Although 4 winners have had pre-race ORs in the 170s, 6 horses with 170s ratings have been beaten.
# Based on the trends to date there is an 80/20 probability that the 2023 Ryanair Chase winner won't have run in the race in 2022.
# As a 9-year-old in 2023, Allaho would still meet one of the strongest Age-related trends for this race and would be seeking a historic third win (unless connections aim for the Gold Cup instead). As an aside, Willie Mullins has trained 5 of the last 7 winners of the Ryanair Chase.
 
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The first three runnings were as a grade 2 so three of the four winners rated in the 150's can be ignored. The other one of course was the only one to go on to win the Gold Cup.:confused:
 
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Lobos said:
Only concerning for King George backers I'd say.
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I’d agree, he started in the John Durkan last season so unless he’s going straight to that or King George I wouldn’t be concerned.

I wonder if Cheveley Park would be happy with only Envoi going King George so WPM doesn’t need to deviate from his usual Allaho route. JD, Grade 2 Jan, Ryanair and back to Punchestown.
 
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Must not be fit enough to run

No surprise as he's a spring horse and usually starts in the durkan
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Must not be fit enough to run

No surprise as he's a spring horse and usually starts in the durkan
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Yeah, Ruby on the PP YouTube video that they released said he's a stuffy horse, I think Willie has mentioned this in the past too. I guess he takes a bit of time to get ready.
 
Craigy14 said:
I’d agree, he started in the John Durkan last season so unless he’s going straight to that or King George I wouldn’t be concerned.

I wonder if Cheveley Park would be happy with only Envoi going King George so WPM doesn’t need to deviate from his usual Allaho route. JD, Grade 2 Jan, Ryanair and back to Punchestown.
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Bang on. Forgot Envoi was CP. That'll be it then.
 
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