Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2018

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #46
    Did he say acapella bourgeois? As rhe quote on racing uk said bamoko moriviere wich confused me a little as he's obviously a novice and his form atm wouldn't scream gold cup, But thought maybe with his previous setbacks, simular to coneygree they plan to take a punt.
    Last edited by Scooby91; 9 October 2017, 05:27 PM.
    https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
    Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

    Comment


    • #47
      Was it tough to make 10st 5lb on Total Recall yesterday?

      No, 10st 5lb is not too bad for me. Below 10st 3lb it starts getting a bit more difficult.

      Is Ming a two-miler or could he be stretched out over further?

      His style of racing suggests he’s a two-miler. He will have to improve to compete with the two-milers at the moment, so he may end up going further.

      What’s going to win the Gold Cup?

      I’d love to think I will. Djakadam, Yorkhill, Bamako Moriviere. I don’t mind which one,as long as I’m riding him.

      How is Yorkhill?
      https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
      Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

      Comment


      • #48
        Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
        Did he say acapella bourgeois? As rhe quote on racing uk said bamoko moriviere wich confused me a little as he's obviously a novice and his form atm wouldn't scream gold cup, But thought maybe with his previous setbacks, simular to coneygree they plan to take a punt.
        Yes 100% Acapella Bourgious... the RUK webpage has it wrong (they also refer to Min as Ming) haha. AB has moved over to Mullins, and been cut today for the Gold Cup according to Oddchecker

        Comment


        • #49
          Positive on Valsuer Lido from HdB too today.... "He’s back and on great terms with himself. He fractured a cannon bone and had to have it screwed, but he seems really good now. We are aiming him back at the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal in early November."

          I've backed VL every season since Vautour's 2014 Supreme

          Comment


          • #50
            Made some notes over the weekend for this, the first time properly in doing so. Feel it is going to be a majorly tough race to win this time around, provided all stand their ground and run.

            I feel this years was weak, well weaker than it should have been, with so many being pulled out.

            I have to say, I agree with Kev's original post, Our Duke for me looks the one to side with, he is incredibly lightly raced and it seems, albeit only the 2 runs over 3m+ that any stamina test is right up his street, we all know the Gold Cup is one hell of a test, so this will suit massively.

            Interestingly, on breeding he ticks the boxes too, both Kicking King & War Of Attrition, winners of the 2005 & 2006 renewals of this race respectively, both had the same Dam's Sire (Good Thyne) as Our Duke does. The past 7 runnings of this race only one other horse, Home Farm (a 100/1 shot) with the same Dam Sire has run, but as expected from a 100/1 shot was completely outclassed, Our Duke has that class, as he's already shown, so no concerns on that front.

            Our Duke is also by the same sire as 2014 winner, Lord Windermere, another positive.

            For me there are less negatives about Our Duke than some of the other market leaders. 10/1 seems fair to me.

            Might Bite is talented, Yorkhill too, though unlike Might Bite, Yorkhill has yet to see out this type of stamina test under rules and accordingly I find his price abysmal, not to mention you never know what mental state that one is in too. Might Bite would need to sort himself out to win a race of this magnitude, talent will only get you so far IMO!

            Sizing John won this last year, and won it well enough, though for me I don't feel it was a strong renewal and next year may well find him out, against better opposition.

            Most of the ones behind are held on form by Sizing John, so unless they improve throughout this season I can't have them beating him let alone one of the new crop in this sphere.

            Thistlecrack would be the likely one to beat the lot, though, I know it was only the one race, I would have liked to have seen him more resilient up that hill when getting beat by Many Clouds in the Cotswold Chase earlier in the year, for this reason I can also see Our Duke doing the same to him if he doesn't have a sufficient enough lead before then that is.

            Honorable mentions to both Coney Island and Acapella Bourgeois, the latter beating Our Duke over hurdles over shorter distances, and has also, as been noted earlier in this thread moved to Willie Mullins, who can surely only find improvement in him, though was hammered by Might Bite at this years festival!

            Comment


            • #51
              Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
              Interestingly, on breeding he ticks the boxes too, both Kicking King & War Of Attrition, winners of the 2005 & 2006 renewals of this race respectively, both had the same Dam's Sire (Good Thyne) as Our Duke does. The past 7 runnings of this race only one other horse, Home Farm (a 100/1 shot) with the same Dam Sire has run, but as expected from a 100/1 shot was completely outclassed, Our Duke has that class, as he's already shown, so no concerns on that front.

              Our Duke is also by the same sire as 2014 winner, Lord Windermere, another positive.
              Thanks for that CoD. I don't tend to look into the breeding side of horses myself but you can only take positives out of that Is breeding a side you often look at?

              The 3 horses I like in the race are Our Duke (1.5pts at 12/1), Might Bite (4pts Triple Crown) and Yorkhill (2pts any race).
              Our Duke is hands down the most solid and logical bet in the race right now for me, it's very very hard to find many faults...BUT..if either Yorkhill or Might Bite are on a good day and can stay the 3m2 then I think they will have too much for any other horse. Everyone (understandably) goes on about how bonkers Might Bite is but I was so impressed with his Aintree run - a much more polished performance and I think we'll see a season without the antics this year for him.

              A special mention has to go to Thistlecrack for me. I was so so keen on this horse for last year so it would be foolish to write him off. He is NO price right now though at 5/1 following his injury. I'm taking a very cautious approach on his recovery. If I was to back him in the race i'd likely do it the morning of the King George if he does line up on Boxing Day but sadly I think he has it all to do to win this race coming back from injury, at 10 years old against this opposition.

              Also I have to say i'd be shocked if Acapella Bourgeois does anything of note in this race. Despite Ruby giving him a namecheck recently when listing possible Gold Cup mounts, I think far too much will be made out of the Total Recall win and assume Willie Mullins will make similar improvements. I take the side of the Navan run being a farce and then he was well and truly put in his place at both Cheltenham and Punchestown by Might Bite and Disko.

              Comment


              • #52
                I've gone right off Thistlecrack in the last few weeks. Agree with the price thing mainly but SO easy to overlook after the tendon injury. "They don't come back" is just sticking with me.

                I also don't think Acapella Bourgious will feature unless its soft or worse ground. I had a couple of £ on at 190/1 just in case, which is how I feel about American too.

                Really good info CoD on the breeding - I never think to look at it, because with NH horses a lot of the time we have enough evidence to judge each horse on its merits, but certainly is not a negative to know!

                For all that I have been going off Thistlecrack, I am more and more interested in Native River! He is 23/1 on the exchanges so I'll have 1.5 pts on that I think... he was not aimed at the Gold Cup last year, it was the Hennessey and Welsh Grand National and he performed creditibly to place in the GC IMO. He is really tough and I thought anything north of 20/1 is worth getting in the book with a view to laying closer to the time.

                Comment


                • #53
                  Looking at betting moves since market really got going , plus all trainers remarks , one horse really shortened and trainer seems bullish is Our Duke.
                  Im on at 36/1 down to 16/1 for about £500 , given his likely program think he could turn up unbeaten for Gold Cup (whether he wins is another matter) so its possible his current price may half again.

                  I have got another dozen in market at massive prices , Blaklion ,Whisper ,UDS , Minnello Rocco , Native River , Road To Respect etc.

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Originally posted by The Beast View Post
                    Looking at betting moves since market really got going , plus all trainers remarks , one horse really shortened and trainer seems bullish is Our Duke.
                    Im on at 36/1 down to 16/1 for about £500 , given his likely program think he could turn up unbeaten for Gold Cup (whether he wins is another matter) so its possible his current price may half again.

                    I have got another dozen in market at massive prices , Blaklion ,Whisper ,UDS , Minnello Rocco , Native River , Road To Respect etc.
                    Well done on the bigger prices for OD Beasty Boy

                    Was that pre Irish National?

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Spot on Archie , Mullins Bingo started already lol

                      He has so many chasers of great quality its inevitable some will clash , and its if buts and maybes at this stage.

                      I see Yorkhill personally going up in trip from 2.5m rather than coming back in trip. Ruby's comments and elation straight away after JLT told you all you need to know , he wants him in GC in 2018.

                      And on Ruby Walsh how often do you see him get that excited by one!!!!!

                      He was buzzing after Min won at Leapardtown also , so just on that alone you would want to keep Min onside and in any bets id say. Queen Mother or Ryanair for Min id say .

                      That depends on what they do with Big D , if he back on song will they unleash him against Altior or 2m or move him up in trip as we all know how much Rich Ritchie wants that GC win.

                      Djakadam just below standard for me , and dont think he got another good un to breach that standard other than Douvan.

                      If you also look at betting on all principle championship races and listen to comments from connections and the so called experts , no decision been made imo on what route Douvan goes , guess the horse will tell them.

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                        Well done on the bigger prices for OD Beasty Boy

                        Was that pre Irish National?
                        Yes Kev , took the opinion he was a good un

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          Originally posted by The Beast View Post
                          Yes Kev , took the opinion he was a good un
                          Good foresight.

                          Regarding the Mullins runners, they'll all be shorter than they should be for a man who has never trained the winner

                          The best thing is they'll keep prices bigger about the others and give a great story to go with how magnificent Our Duke goes on to be as he wins back-to-back Gold Cups

                          Comment


                          • #58
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            Good foresight.

                            Regarding the Mullins runners, they'll all be shorter than they should be for a man who has never trained the winner

                            The best thing is they'll keep prices bigger about the others and give a great story to go with how magnificent Our Duke goes on to be as he wins back-to-back Gold Cups
                            When you look at likely runners , feel GC will be ran at Denman pace , brutal , relentless and not for the faint hearted.

                            Sizing John had race ran to suit , in that it was a slow muddling affair. Cannot see that happening this time , and for me Sizing John wouldn't be for me even though i had him in GC as a saver bet.

                            Only horse i would take out of race was Minello Rocco , and given likely fast pace this year and simalar prep , feel he will do best out of last seasons brigade.

                            Comment


                            • #59
                              Originally posted by The Beast View Post
                              When you look at likely runners , feel GC will be ran at Denman pace , brutal , relentless and not for the faint hearted.

                              Sizing John had race ran to suit , in that it was a slow muddling affair. Cannot see that happening this time , and for me Sizing John wouldn't be for me even though i had him in GC as a saver bet.

                              Only horse i would take out of race was Minello Rocco , and given likely fast pace this year and simalar prep , feel he will do best out of last seasons brigade.
                              I was under the impression that last season's gold cup was a strongly run race. Was it really run slowly? That might change my thoughts on some of the beaten horses.

                              Comment


                              • #60
                                Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                                I was under the impression that last season's gold cup was a strongly run race. Was it really run slowly? That might change my thoughts on some of the beaten horses.
                                Pretty sure it wasnt a strong gallop FM

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X