Interesting they are aiming for the Fighting Fifth, I wonder if BvD will turn up also.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!
You can also make a one-off donation here:
Become a Patron!
You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less
Champion Hurdle 2019
Collapse
X
-
Originally posted by Innoko View PostInteresting they are aiming for the Fighting Fifth, I wonder if BvD will turn up also.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostI'd imagine BD will start off in the Fighting Fifth again then head to Kempton on Boxing Day. He's still a 7 yr old and lightly raced so I suppose he may still have improvement to come.
10 wins in a row now, not been headed once he hits the front. Has class and the guts.
Under appreciated.... I hope they push him out if Samcro gets declared hurdling.
(I feel I can knock Samcro vs BVD until he gets confirmed then I'll have to start thinking more seriously!) Currently BVD has 9 lbs OR and 8 lbs RPR in hand
Comment
-
He could improve for sure.
But he has definitely mopped up in a weak division, due to injuries and lack of champion novices staying hurdling in last couple of seasons. Even Harrington spotted how average a bunch they were and let Supasundae pick up two big races in Ireland. I've been bored watching the grade one 2 mile hurdle races in England and Ireland and really hope a few of the champion novices stay hurdling for a season at least, especially Samcro.
It'll be hard for BVD followers to desert him this season but I hope he has it tougher than last year, where he was never given much opportunity to improve, which may come back to haunt Henderson this year.
Comment
-
An argument can be made for both sides of the different prep routes on either side of the Irish Sea imo. The competative nature of the races in Ireland are an obvious plus with the negative being the probability of soft/heavy ground bottoming put your horse.
It totally depends on the horse in question imo. Whether he has a strong makeup or a fragile one for example. Penhill/Annie Power being examples that dont need much racecourse experience as opposed to the likes of Presenting Percy/Apples Jade who take a bit race conditioning to strip for March. Different strokes....
Expecting the Flogas Chase to be a very strong pointer to the Irish novice chasers again this season.Last edited by SeanRock; 5 September 2018, 08:07 PM.
Comment
-
I was very impressed with Summerville Boy in the Supreme. He met all sorts of trouble in running, and couldn't jump a twig when things got important. Yet he still pulled it out of the bag showing a lovely attitude iMO.
Obviously, he'd need to jump a million times better in a Champion to be competitive. I've just noticed + wonder if it's an error on the RP site but was the Supreme run in the exact same time as the Champion last year?
Certainly an interesting horse to go to war with and i agree with a point made earlier, i hope trainers seize the opportunity of a weaker 2m hurdle division this year.
Comment
-
I keep thinking about Summerville Boy and each time have to downgrade his win because of Kalashnikov.
Kalashnikov seems to be the talking horse at the moment, and I am not against him at all for the Arkle or JLT - but I do think his hurdles form has been somewhat overplayed by racing experts.
I haven't gone through the entire Betfair Hurdle field, but of the first 10 home, only 1 horse has had a win, and that was Couer Blimey in a 6 runner maiden on the flat in May - which hardly franks the form at all IMO.
A couple ran OKAY at Cheltenham, but that is Remiluc.
Summerville Boy has finished ahead of Kalashnikov twice, so it's fair to say he is better and the points about him winning despite his jumping are more than fair... however, you'd want to SEE that improvement before you wanted to get too excited about him.
For me, Summerville Boy is interesting, but you can knock the value of his form through Kalashnikov and there is only Faugheen that I've ever seen not jump slickly and win a CH, and obviously he isn't in that calibre.
Comment
-
Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI keep thinking about Summerville Boy and each time have to downgrade his win because of Kalashnikov.
Kalashnikov seems to be the talking horse at the moment, and I am not against him at all for the Arkle or JLT - but I do think his hurdles form has been somewhat overplayed by racing experts.
I haven't gone through the entire Betfair Hurdle field, but of the first 10 home, only 1 horse has had a win, and that was Couer Blimey in a 6 runner maiden on the flat in May - which hardly franks the form at all IMO.
A couple ran OKAY at Cheltenham, but that is Remiluc.
Summerville Boy has finished ahead of Kalashnikov twice, so it's fair to say he is better and the points about him winning despite his jumping are more than fair... however, you'd want to SEE that improvement before you wanted to get too excited about him.
For me, Summerville Boy is interesting, but you can knock the value of his form through Kalashnikov and there is only Faugheen that I've ever seen not jump slickly and win a CH, and obviously he isn't in that calibre.
Comment
-
Originally posted by SeanRock View PostWhen looking through the Betfair Hurdle form I think you need to consider how badly Kalashnikov travelled in running whilst still winning as he liked. To the naked eye he was well beaten halfway out. Had conditions been in his favor how would the form have looked considering he eventually won so comprehensively.
I just know I'd be dead against him if he was going for the CH this season... and therefore it puts me off getting carried away with Summerville Boy (or anything in the Supreme just yet).
There is just too much credit being given to these two horses so far... I think they're priced as if that've won above average renewals of their respective races, and I am not saying that they can't be that good, I'm just saying they need to prove it.Last edited by Kevloaf; 5 September 2018, 11:00 PM.
Comment
-
Is there an argument to say that it was a below average Supreme, and the fact that Summerville Boy won it should actually be proof of that. To jump that poorly and still win may be a sign of just how average the race was.... Kalashnikov's form I've already questioned, Mengli Khan was 3rd and didn't win after December last. Paloma Blue had no win since Dec either and was 4th. Claimintakinrubbish was 5th and also got beaten next time out (last won in Dec).
I feel its perfectly reasonable to take a look at the Supreme and say it was not a good renewal, even at this early stage.
the fact Kalashnikov and Paloma Blue et al may go on to be good chasers, and Arkle contenders, doesn't mean it was a strong Supreme either IMO.
It is pure lack of potential/known opposition combined with the anticipated 'improvement over fences' that have the Supreme 2nd, 3rd and 4th as Arkle contenders in my mind so far.Last edited by Kevloaf; 5 September 2018, 11:08 PM.
Comment
-
-
My instinct was that the Supreme form maybe some way under the Ballymore. That said the ratings guy who writes this blog which I enjoyed reading throughout last season argues the form of the whole novice hurdler crop was above average:
Comment
-
Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostIs there an argument to say that it was a below average Supreme, and the fact that Summerville Boy won it should actually be proof of that. To jump that poorly and still win may be a sign of just how average the race was.... Kalashnikov's form I've already questioned, Mengli Khan was 3rd and didn't win after December last. Paloma Blue had no win since Dec either and was 4th. Claimintakinrubbish was 5th and also got beaten next time out (last won in Dec).
I feel its perfectly reasonable to take a look at the Supreme and say it was not a good renewal, even at this early stage.
the fact Kalashnikov and Paloma Blue et al may go on to be good chasers, and Arkle contenders, doesn't mean it was a strong Supreme either IMO.
It is pure lack of potential/known opposition combined with the anticipated 'improvement over fences' that have the Supreme 2nd, 3rd and 4th as Arkle contenders in my mind so far.
1) i think the Ballymore was a better race of the two.
2) I think the entire crop of novice hurdlers last year was far better than anything since the year of Altior/Buveur Dair/Min
3) Whist I think it was a decent supreme, I think the front three/four will prove to be far better than the rest.
4) Kalashnikov (novice chasing) and Summerville Boy (Champion Hurdle) will prove top 3 in their divisions this year.
5) Mengli Khan will be a decent yardstick for the Arkle if he goes that way. Paloma Blue the same.
6) The Ballymore, whilst a better race at the top end (Samcro), will have far more depth down the field and more winners.
Comment
Comment