Cheltenham 2017 Antepost Bets

[Kevloaf]

That might not be a good thing!!! I'll appreciate it if you follow me in on that bet though, I'll feel like it is a winner if I know someone else is on it!

I actually don't feel like I put enough 'life changers' on... I can break all of my bets down to one of three catogories... 'life changers', 'weekend changers' and 'why-do-I-work-when-I-could-just-do-this-every-day' .... well, I suppose there is actually a hidden 4th catogory which is 'losing bets'.... which answers number 3.

[jono]

Saw he got a mention earlier on in the thread but i'm also keen on Champers On Ice for the 4 miler/National Hunt Chase. At 33/1 he's certainly attractive odds.

Originally I was reluctant to get involved in him though as the 4 miler REALLY is a race to focus on the jockey. Pick either O'Connor, Codd, Carberry and to a slightly lesser extent Katie Walsh or Patrick Mullins and you really won't go wrong. This was highlighted even more last year when although i'd usually be straight on whatever Derek O'Connor is riding - As much as I wanted to bet on the jockey booking I just couldn't have Minella Rocco having seen him run 2 dire races at Cheltenham earlier in the year and jump like a pig. He goes onto win!

So that got me thinking what if I can try and work out who might be on on what horse or more importantly at this early stage (rather than wait until jockey bookings at the start of March) with so many unknowns, who might be onboard for which trainer. If you look back over the last 5 runnings of this race and the jockeys highlighted above:

2016
O'Connor - Jonjo O'Neill - Minella Rocco 1st McMANUS
Nina - Southfield Royale 4th
Codd - Elliott - Noble Endeavour Fell ELLIOTT
Walsh - Measureofmydreams 3rd GIGGINSTOWN
Mullins - Pont Alexandre Fell MULLINS

2015
O'Connor - The Job is Right 3rd
Nina - Very Wood 10th GIGGINSTOWN
Codd - Cause of Causes 1st McMANUS & ELLIOTT
Walsh - Broadway Buffalo - 2nd PIPE
Mullins - Perfect Gentlemen - 4th MULLINS

2014
O'Connor - Shotgun Paddy 3rd
Nina - Shutthefrontdoor 6th McMANUS
Codd - Living Next Door 5th
Walsh - Foxrock - 9th
Mullins - Suntiep - 3rd MULLINS

2013
O'Connor - Rival D'estruval 9th
Nina - Tofino Bay 2nd GIGGINSTOWN
Codd - Buddy Bolero 4th PIPE
Walsh - No Ride
Mullins - Back in Focus - 1st MULLINS

2012
O'Connor - No Ride
Nina - Four Commanders 3rd GIGGINSTOWN
Codd - Buddy Bolero 4th
Walsh - Soll 15th MULLINS
Mullins - Allee Garde - 11th MULLINS

So the jockeys have this as their form over that time:

O'Connor - 1st / 3rd / 2nd / 9th / -
Nina - 4th / 10th / 6th / 2nd / 3rd
Codd - F / 1st / 5t / 4th / -
Walsh - 3rd / 2nd / 9th / - / 15th
Mullins - F / 4th / 3rd / 1st / 11th

There's a few themes developing with the bookings:

Gigginstown will always have a good jockey - this tended to be Nina Carberry for a long time and have also used Katie Walsh
McManus has been going for the top jockeys over the last coupld of years - Derek O'Connor and Jamie Codd both won last 2 years
Mullins obviosuly has Willies horses to choose, no suprise there
Walsh tends to get a good ride each year, Mullins, Gigginstown, Pipe, Foxrock the fav in 2014
O'Connor has had a different owner and trainer each each - no ties as of yet?
Codd has ridden for Gordon Elliott the last 2 years - could continue on?

Then with Champers on Ice in mind I looked at Pipes record in the same period:

2016 - Quinlan onboard Vieux Lion Rouge - 6th
2015 - Walsh onboard Broadway Buffalo - 2nd
2013 - Codd onboard Buddy Bolero - 4th

So not a bad record at all with just 3 runners and more importantly had a 'top jockey' twice. Pipe also uses them in the Kim Muir as well and has had both Jamie Codd (won on the Package in 2015) and Katie Walsh ride in that race. So he's tended to have gone to one of these jockeys when he can.

So the likelyhood of IF Champers on Ice runs in this race of him getting one of these jockeys seems quite good. I imagine Elliott will try and keep Jamie Codd if he can (Fagan at 20's another interest with that booking in mind) but Pipe has used Jamie Codd quite often. He rode Moonracer at Punchestown this year and more importantly was onboard Champers On Ice when he won the Punchestown bumper in 2015. Either that or he may go for Katie Walsh who has ridden Broadway Buffalo (2nd in 2015) and Top Wood and Buddy Bolero in the last few Kim Muir renewals.

Add in the fact it's been stated how chasing will be his game, he's got stamina and abundance it looks a likely target alongside the RSA. I personally think he may just lack the class for that race and that could be a very tough renewal with Alpha des Obeaux, Barters Hills, Aux Ptits Soins and more to beat so they'll end up here.

Long post and went off in tangents (I had hoped to make this quite clear and concise!!) so apologies but at 33/1 i've just put a little bet on hoping my theory comes true

[Morning Glory]

^ Brillant post jono. Ive joined you.

[Morning Glory]

Any thoughts on simonsig for the Ryanair? Or is this horse just to fragile to keep on side. Henderson may have a few for the intermediate trip with L'ami serge and captain Conan

Stop it please

He ran well at Punchestown but flopped in France. Despite losses I have some man love for this horse.

L'ami serge is a good shout.

[Faugheen_Machine]

^ Brillant post jono. Ive joined you.

.......and me. I was hoping he'd be listed 'to win any race' at 20/1+ but Skybet are the only ones offering a price and 10/1 is hardly tempting.

I really like this horse, so does D.Pipe as he's put him up as his horse to follow in One Jump Ahead!!

[jono]

Glad to hear I'm yet to get One Jump Ahead this year. Any chance you can post up what was said?

[mayo]

Pretty sure Champers in Ice was Tom Scu's horse to follow for the year on the Morning Line last year. Good work

[Faugheen_Machine]

'Progressed with every run last season winning twice at Newbury and Cheltenham before finishing third in the Albert Bartlett Novices' hurdle at the Festival. It was the first time he had tackled 3 miles and it appeared to suit him. I have been pleased with him during the summer because he seems to have grown a bit and developed. He likes to get into a rhythm in his races and gives the impression he will gallop all day. A winning Irish pointer, he will go over fences over two and a half miles plus. Although he handles most kinds of ground, I think he is at his best on soft. I hope he will develop into a very good novice chaser.' ......D Pipe

[jono]

Brilliant, thanks for posting that! Encouraging to hear and let's hope the plan comes together!

Small bit of news today - Colm Murphy is quitting training. Shame as he had a fantastic record at the festival on a very limited amount of runners - 13 out of his 20 runners at the festival finished in the top 3. That included winning with Empire of Dirt in March (had only 2 runners) Was always a nice angle that one on horses often overlooked.

[Istabraq]

Another forum plunge, love it !
I can't get the 33s but will have some of the 25s with B365.

Jono - you're absolutely right about the jockey angle but don't ignore the Dentist, Will Biddick, Steve Clements as they're are all decent pilots.
Non claiming amateurs are a good starting point.
Don't forget the conditions of this race are changing, it will be a G2 from March

[Kevloaf]

Really good angle in a very tough race. Excellent jono. I have followed you, (and the forum) in on this one too.

[mayo]

I am going to be contrary and say Fagan wins the 4 miler lads.

[paz247]

Up For Review with Patrick on board

[mayo]

Up For Review with Patrick on board

extra kudos if you came name winning horse and jockey this far out

[cwright23]

Anyone taken an interest in the triumph yet? Suppose most trainers won't be pushing there 3yo to hard at this stage of the season?