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Champion Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
    I had an each way bet on Wembley (6/4) with Saldier, so I'm left with a 2 point 'win' bet "place only" at 2.825/1

    Which, when writing it out, I can't understand why I haven't cashed out.




    ***Ah, it is with PP and the cashout is less than 1 point.




    I have a Tiz The Law double with Saldier 'open'.



    I am assuming he's not going chasing.
    I really hope he’s not Kev, really want him to have a crack at the champion hurdle!

    Definitely get him onside soon as welfare and confirmation of staying hurdling is mentioned.

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    • Not that we didn’t know already but Gary Moore confirmed at Goodwood last week that Goshen definitely goes flat racing in September when he feels the ground is proper good to soft, he can’t help exploiting his OR over the flat first, I can’t help but think if he thought this was a serious CH horse why on earth would you send it over the flat regardless of his rating, one run maybe excusable if he was a hard horse to get fit but I don’t believe he is, I have respect for most trainers but this just screams mistake to me

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      • Originally posted by gjt7756 View Post
        Not that we didn’t know already but Gary Moore confirmed at Goodwood last week that Goshen definitely goes flat racing in September when he feels the ground is proper good to soft, he can’t help exploiting his OR over the flat first, I can’t help but think if he thought this was a serious CH horse why on earth would you send it over the flat regardless of his rating, one run maybe excusable if he was a hard horse to get fit but I don’t believe he is, I have respect for most trainers but this just screams mistake to me
        I hear you and tend to agree if they genuinely think he is a potential Churdle winner. That said he had 3 runs on the flat last year before embarking on a successful Jump programme and clearly would have won the Triumph by a mile if his jockey would have had a peep behind and let him pop the last so who am I to judge. He's not for me though, he just doesn't get my juices flowing.
        Last edited by Lobos; 5 August 2020, 10:12 PM.

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        • Originally posted by gjt7756 View Post
          Not that we didn’t know already but Gary Moore confirmed at Goodwood last week that Goshen definitely goes flat racing in September when he feels the ground is proper good to soft, he can’t help exploiting his OR over the flat first, I can’t help but think if he thought this was a serious CH horse why on earth would you send it over the flat regardless of his rating, one run maybe excusable if he was a hard horse to get fit but I don’t believe he is, I have respect for most trainers but this just screams mistake to me
          Stratum won £217k in last season's Cesarewitch, whereas Epatante won £264k in the Champion Hurdle.

          I think it would be a huge mistake not to take advantage of his flat rating. Stratum won the Cesarewitch with an OR 101 last season and Goshen (OR88) has the potential to be better than Stratum.

          There are some really good pots to win with staying handicappers on the flat and if I owned him (wishful thinking), I'd definitely be running at Newmarket in October. It just looks too good an opportunity to turn down.

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          • A couple of runs on the Flat for Goshen, off an opening mark of 88 in handicaps like the Ces, seems like a good way to prep for his hurdles campaign.

            I think if he had run a full season on the flat it would have been less helpful.

            Maybe the trainer has decided that too.
            "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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            • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
              Stratum won £217k in last season's Cesarewitch, whereas Epatante won £264k in the Champion Hurdle.

              I think it would be a huge mistake not to take advantage of his flat rating. Stratum won the Cesarewitch with an OR 101 last season and Goshen (OR88) has the potential to be better than Stratum.

              There are some really good pots to win with staying handicappers on the flat and if I owned him (wishful thinking), I'd definitely be running at Newmarket in October. It just looks too good an opportunity to turn down.
              Understand where you are coming from but prize money on the flat is way down this season, i. could not even contemplate a horse like stratum winning a Champion hurdle and it’s more of a familiar route for a plot job in a festival handicap to protect their mark over hurdles, I want to back Goshen but this prep just really puts me off

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              • Originally posted by gjt7756 View Post
                Understand where you are coming from but prize money on the flat is way down this season, i. could not even contemplate a horse like stratum winning a Champion hurdle and it’s more of a familiar route for a plot job in a festival handicap to protect their mark over hurdles, I want to back Goshen but this prep just really puts me off
                The prize money will be down over jumps too though. Put yourself in the owners shoes, it looks a huge opportunity and one that would be hard to pass up.

                Detroit City won the Ces before going off favourite in the Champion hurdle. Countrywide Flame came second before finishing third in a champion hurdle so it isn't a route that hasn't been tried before.

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                • Yes I've no problem with it either. They missed the winter ground over hurdles last season anyway.

                  The issue won't be whether he ran on the flat or not, it'll be whether he's good enough or not.

                  I'm in the 'not' camp, but I'll still have him covered just in case I'm wrong.
                  Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                  • Given some members high regard for Goshens chances in the Churdle even though he fell and never finished in the Triumph how do you rate Column of Fires chances in the Churdle? Is it unrealistic that he will go there. He was storming through the field when he fell, rated 146 for the race whilst Goshen was 150. It requires a drop back in distance of 4 furlongs but could CoF compete in the Churdle??

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                    • Going chasing surely?

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                      • Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                        Given some members high regard for Goshens chances in the Churdle even though he fell and never finished in the Triumph how do you rate Column of Fires chances in the Churdle? Is it unrealistic that he will go there. He was storming through the field when he fell, rated 146 for the race whilst Goshen was 150. It requires a drop back in distance of 4 furlongs but could CoF compete in the Churdle??
                        As Archie says will be going chasing I would think.

                        But would be of no interest for the champion hurdle, quite simply won’t be good enough imo.

                        Giggs have very few runners aimed at it and Abacadabras will be a likely runner, from memory I don’t think they’ve had more than 1 runner? I stand corrected if I’m wrong.

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                        • Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                          Given some members high regard for Goshens chances in the Churdle even though he fell and never finished in the Triumph how do you rate Column of Fires chances in the Churdle? Is it unrealistic that he will go there. He was storming through the field when he fell, rated 146 for the race whilst Goshen was 150. It requires a drop back in distance of 4 furlongs but could CoF compete in the Churdle??
                          I think when assessing any second season chaser or hurdler, we need to assess what 'ceiling' on ratings we think each horse has.

                          Goshen's ceiling could be anything. It could be 150, it could be 175, nothing has got close to him yet, to begin to know.

                          COF has ran in 8 hurdles races.
                          Fell or BD three times
                          3rd twice
                          2nd twice
                          1st once

                          Its a potentially narrower ceiling over hurdles for him now notwithstanding that he can improve further.
                          If he is 146 now and raced latterly over 2M4F and above, and if he stayed over hurdles, maybe a ceiling of 160 is possible.

                          He could be Gordys Pertemps horse if campaigned for it, and aim to be rated by UK handicapper at below 150.
                          If his ceiling is 160 over hurdles it would be great to see him run off 145-149 in the Pertemps.
                          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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                          • Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                            Given some members high regard for Goshens chances in the Churdle even though he fell and never finished in the Triumph how do you rate Column of Fires chances in the Churdle? Is it unrealistic that he will go there. He was storming through the field when he fell, rated 146 for the race whilst Goshen was 150. It requires a drop back in distance of 4 furlongs but could CoF compete in the Churdle??
                            Sometimes it is actually better to.....

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                            • I’m guessing there are a number of reasons as to why CoF does not feature in any of the Churdle markets!! Saldier it is then

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                              • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                                COF has ran in 8 hurdles races.
                                Fell or BD three times
                                3rd twice
                                2nd twice
                                1st once

                                Its a potentially narrower ceiling over hurdles for him now notwithstanding that he can improve further.
                                If he is 146 now and raced latterly over 2M4F and above, and if he stayed over hurdles, maybe a ceiling of 160 is possible.

                                He could be Gordys Pertemps horse if campaigned for it, and aim to be rated by UK handicapper at below 150.
                                If his ceiling is 160 over hurdles it would be great to see him run off 145-149 in the Pertemps.
                                Now this i do Like as an idea .

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