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Faugheen won the Ballymore and champion hurdle while being unbeaten until the Morgiana the following season
Good work Phil.
Faugheen was the only one I could think of, with a similar profile, although arguably better as he won one of THE championship races on his second visit to Cheltenham.
The Marsh will be contested by Grade 2 horses as well as they avoid Envoi Allen.
He's taking up pages in the Novice Chase thread that I set up, as he's the highest rated Novice Hurdler going Novice Chasing.
3L is the literal distance he won, I'm going to be surprised if that's the limit of his ability.
Single figures for any horse is easy to ignore this far out, and we know it's not your style or approach.
It's impossible to avoid discussing EA in the specific Novice Chase thread that I set up.
Feel free to add yo the discussion wherever you see fit.
The three lengths I was talking about referred to Shishkin and Abacadaras. That was taking a line through the Royal Bond and there is a fair possibility that Abacadabras improved on his performance. I don't think Envoi Allen did.
I went into the Festival thinking Envoi Allen would win the Supreme but came out wondering whether in fact he would have been third.
Bula won his first 13 races (including a Gloucestershire Hurdle and a Champion Hurdle) and 16 of his first 17 (including a second Champion Hurdle). He didn't usually win by wide margins either. I don't the ratings but I would have thought he would be rated a good bit higher than Faugheen and Envoi Allen.
I am not saying that Envoi Allen isn't going to continue winning just suggesting that he still has plenty to prove in a different discipline and as such he might not represent the kind of value bet that most people seem to think.
Bula won his first 13 races (including a Gloucestershire Hurdle and a Champion Hurdle) and 16 of his first 17 (including a second Champion Hurdle). He didn't usually win by wide margins either. I don't the ratings but I would have thought he would be rated a good bit higher than Faugheen and Envoi Allen.
I am not saying that Envoi Allen isn't going to continue winning just suggesting that he still has plenty to prove in a different discipline and as such he might not represent the kind of value bet that most people seem to think.
You can barely fault what EA has done to date KB. He is unbeaten, a 2 time festival winner, has a ptp background so the likelihood he takes to fences gives you a bit more confidence. It just seems that in the UK people always want to take people down when they are at the top or on the way to the top. Yes he still has a way to go but I think we just need to all enjoy what we are seeing.
I’m of the opinion he would have won either the supreme or ballymore without question. Turning the bend he’s 3 lengths down, all 3 jumps the last together, even before he got to the flight everyone watching knew the winner. I thought it was a very good performance. Given all the pressure etc on the stable jockey and of course the horse to deliver.
Don’t think anyone is saying that the 4/1 I think that’s available in the Marsh is good value in a single. I certainly haven’t backed him in a single. But you can’t deny what we have witnessed to date that he is likely destined for the top over fences as well.
I see where you are coming from in terms of perceived value KB, but I’m not sure many people are saying he is a great value bet at 9/2 for a target that isn’t certain. I think most would agree that the best value is likely to be found at bigger odds. That said for people like me who are not adverse to have a few covered in the Championship races there is no way I am going to not cover EA for the Marsh and Shishkin for the Arkle. 4/1 is as low as I am willing to go antepost so I have to back these before they debut if I think they are fair favourites (which I think both are) and for me become unbackable. I will though ensure I’m backing with cash out and free bets to reduce the risk a little
Don’t think anyone is saying that the 4/1 I think that’s available in the Marsh is good value in a single. I certainly haven’t backed him in a single. But you can’t deny what we have witnessed to date that he is likely destined for the top over fences as well.
I actually think he's the best value of all the favourites and have back him in singles.
You don't think his Supreme run was an improvement on the Royal Bond second?
I don't think Envoi Allen is a 2miler, so for him to win the Royal Bond is pretty impressive IMO. Abacadabras definitely improved as I usually put Royal Bond runners aside as a no go for the Supreme, so he ran a cracker and already noted I was wrong regarding him (despite nabbing the 16's straight after the RB).
My opinion on them all is at their optimum distances Envoi Allen is top of his tree. As I've already debated, I don't think he'd be as effective now over 2m. But doesn't take away what he has done to date at all.
You don't think his Supreme run was an improvement on the Royal Bond second?
I Doubt anyone doubts that.
I think the mild incredulity from Istabraq & FM was with your (he may have been third comments, and that he didn't improve himself)
Think a few would doubt that.
You can barely fault what EA has done to date KB. He is unbeaten, a 2 time festival winner, has a ptp background so the likelihood he takes to fences gives you a bit more confidence. It just seems that in the UK people always want to take people down when they are at the top or on the way to the top. Yes he still has a way to go but I think we just need to all enjoy what we are seeing.
I’m of the opinion he would have won either the supreme or ballymore without question. Turning the bend he’s 3 lengths down, all 3 jumps the last together, even before he got to the flight everyone watching knew the winner. I thought it was a very good performance. Given all the pressure etc on the stable jockey and of course the horse to deliver.
Don’t think anyone is saying that the 4/1 I think that’s available in the Marsh is good value in a single. I certainly haven’t backed him in a single. But you can’t deny what we have witnessed to date that he is likely destined for the top over fences as well.
4/1 EA is a fair top up bet in a double, maybe.
For me, I think the mid-distance Grade 1 chases, the Marsh and Ryanair are usually tricky to be 100% sure that is where a horse is definitely going to end up - however for EA it does seem the most likely atm.
Very interesting to read everyone’s thoughts on Envoi Allen’s single figure prices, and other horses mentioned in a similar breath on here. Surely guys and girls, the very,very large majority of the odds we look at ante post for Cheltenham for next year, are just about right, as they generally always are? The reason Envoi Allen was the odds on horse that people didn’t really want to touch the week before the festival was because they believed there was better value out there? Which completely ignored the fact Envoi was absolutely the one likely winner of the race, even before it was run? Is an 8/1 loser more profitable than a 4/6 winner? Or is taking the 10/1 on Envoi 5 months in advance when it was 90% certain he’d go the Ballymore route a clearly sensible financial investment when we all knew before he’d popped over his first hurdle of the season he was a beast of a horse.....
The 4/1’s available at present on both Shishkin (Arkle) and Envoi Allen (Marsh) and 2/1 on Easysland (Tiger Roll might just be left for the big one at Aintree I genuinely feel confident about) make a 74/1 treble currently. If all 3 horses are fit and their seasons progress the way their trainers are hoping, it is with a reasonable amount of foreseeing, that all 3 horses will go off odds on. And if, for argument sake, all 3 horses went off 5/6, you’ve got yourself a 5/1 treble instead of one paying out 15 times more than that at this current moment.
So value, for each and every one of us, is very much in how we personally see it. Those single figure prices on the aforementioned horses could look bargains on the day. He who dares, for sure.
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