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Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

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  • I've had a bit on Samcro for the Arkle too Kev, there was a time when the Neptune was regarded more as a stepping stone for the champion hurdle than the supreme was, because you need more of a stayer for the ch, these days though it seems more likely a tester for future chasers, but it still takes more to run a 2 mile chase than hurdle, and a year later the Champ chase would beckon, which carries much more kudos than anything other than the Gold cup. Difficult call at this stage though, all depends what kind of races they target, small stakes for now but the current price for him in the Arkle will look enormous if he turns up there

    Comment


    • I think experience on the New Course is crucial.
      Remember he only finished 2l ahead of Black Op who ploughed his way through the last rather than attempt to jump the thing so could easily have been much closer, so a small question to answer maybe about his suitability to the track, and the New Course provides different challenges to the speedier Old Course.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
        Could go anywhere and win - I agree - IF it was up to Gordon Elliott...

        However, it is not. My opinion on the Samcro target....

        I'm surprised you don't think they'll "shove" him in the RSA though.... this season, yet again, proved that Gigginstown want their perceived best staying chaser in the RSA.

        Elliott was adamant he wanted Dounikos in the four miler as he didn't think they'd beat Presenting Percy.... but Dounikos ran in the RSA and .... was beaten by Presenting Percy! Gigginstown made that call.
        A couple of years back, Mullins wanted Don Poli in the four miler... he ended up in the RSA and won it. They aren't the only two examples either.

        The huge point is, that Gigginstown decide, and until I hear/read Michael O'Leary say ANYTHING that contradicts him being a future Gold Cup horse I'd be surprised if he is anywhere BUT the RSA.

        I've seen a few people on here, social media and in the Podcasts talking about the Arkle and JLT and I just don't understand why people are ignoring the owners clear preference for the RSA. Especially with reference to the JLT... I don't think O'Leary gives a hoot about the JLT. Only Sir Des Champs of any note whatsoever was in that race for him, and that season they had First Lieutenant who'd won the Neptune the year before and Sir Des Champs had won the Martin Pipe...so at the time FL had better form in the book and was perceived a better horse. Probably isn't in hindsight but a Ballymore winner is better than a Martin Pipe winner as a novice chaser you'd say!

        Another reason I've seen in the number of other options Gigginstown have .... but that is true every season. They purposefully BUY 3 mile chasing types... so they'll always be top heavy in that department statistically. What I would be 100% certain of, is that Samcro gets put in the race they want him in, and the others slot around or accompany him... to suggest they'd switch Samcro because they've got another horse for me is not going to happen. I appreciate they won't want to beat Samcro with their own... but I don't think they're thinking about that...and to be honest I can't see a situation where that would happen. You'd need one of the staying novice chasers to have absolutely blown everything away and be a favourite for the RSA without Samcro for that to even appear as a possibility for me. I don't think they'll have an "also ran" in the RSA if they could have the favourite.

        They'll 100% TRY him over further.... this is another point...with him being a future Gold Cup horse (that nobody can disagree with being the plan) they'll try him over 3m at some stage before Cheltenham. He's always won on soft over 2m5f - to think he'll NOT go up another 3 for me is silly. If he travels through that race and puts a race like that to bed (which I expect he will) then they won't consider coming back in trip at Cheltenham.... the ONLY possibility, would be a Death Duty type scenario, where he SHOWS he isn't a true 3 miler... I will 100% agree he won't go RSA if he PROVES he doesn't stay. However, I would be confident he would at this stage.

        People will say "oh but he has the pace for shorter"...and he does..... but instead of being a "2 miler that stays further".... he'll be "a staying chaser with the pace to win over 2 miles".... The very best Gold Cup horse I've ever seen (Kauto Star) fits in to that mould...Samcro could well be the same.

        I do NOT want people confusing this with what race I "think" he should be in, or what race he'd have the best chance in.... but I do think the RSA is the target. I think that is clear and the target UNTIL proven otherwise.

        The RSA should be the starting point, I am shocked that the bookies have the JLT as the shorter of the 3 novice chasing routes. I'm not really giving much thought to the Champion Hurdle route either... they've said all along he's bought as a 3 mile chaser, so as exciting as it would be to see him have a go at the Champion Hurdle before going chasing, that really would be out of character!


        I imagine plenty will disagree with me looking at comments on here... but I'd like to see genuine reasons why you think they'd avoid the RSA?
        Great reply Kev, so here comes my counter (well slightly, I agree with most of your points).

        The perceived 'best' chaser they had from my own perspective was always Shattered Love, I had absolutely no problem in hyping her up for the RSA thread, only for them to then turn to the JLT, and win it really well, she lived up to my expectations, even if I got the initial race wrong. I was never one to mention Dounikos in as much light, so for that argument I'd still suggest their best chaser went to the JLT (I also had no hiding place should she had ended up getting stuffed, just re-read the RSA thread, I think I mentioned her a little too much )

        I actually don't think there is a set rule for where Gold Cup runners go with regards to the previous festival runs, Don Cossack (another Gigginstown owned) went RSA, then Ryanair (step back in trip) then Gold Cup, this years winner, as we know went from the 4 miler to the Gold Cup and then the Gold Cup again this year as we know, Road To Respect, who ran a cracking race this year given the ground conditions ran in the Plate (over 2m 4f) then the Gold Cup this year. We know Samcro is heading towards the Gold Cup, I think that is a given, and maybe I was a little too brash with my 'shove him in the RSA' comments, but I don't see why they need to send him for that race to determine him being a Gold Cup horse.

        If you take the Sizing John route into account (bit of a freak one) too you could now say 'any race' from 2m to 4m could find a Gold Cup winner amongst it.

        Do you think we worry too much about what races they run in as novices? If a horse is that talented surely the race he runs in leading up to his overall target is irrelevant, as a horse with Samcro's talent will likely win regardless?

        My own thinking is they will want him to have the easiest race possible, ready for a tough campaign when he takes on the Gold Cup the following year.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          I genuinely think they'd sooner take in the Arkle than the JLT. The bookies disagree with me so I must be off the mark somewhat ... but I feel like he's priced on the fact he won the Ballymore therefore JLT next obvious step which is probably the case for most horses in most yards... but for me, the owners wishes are being under-estimated in the ante-post market at 8/1 RSA.

          Don't get me wrong, if he was a big price JLT I'd take a flyer... but 4/1 is way too short as I Don't think he runs there.
          I think he's far more likely jlt than rsa now personally. He dosent strike me as wanting 3 miles at all at this stage. If death duty dosent want 3 miles over fences as a novice, then samcro deffinately dosent.
          I think the intermediate trip, though i wouldnt be shocked if he went for the arkle,
          I would be suprised if he went rsa however.

          After all this he still needs to go back and jump a fence, finians oscar and bacardys both won ptps and grade1 hurdles between them and diddnt take to it after there season over hurdles.
          Last edited by Scooby91; 20 March 2018, 09:59 AM.
          https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
          Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

          Comment


          • One horse I wanted to make note of for next season is Vision Des Flos, someone I know managed to get him requested for the 'Any Race' market and WH are 20/1 as opposed to SkyBet who are 12/1!

            He has been massively messed a round with this season and I hope Tizzard does the right thing and drops him to 2m again, whether that be over hurdles or fences, if I had to choose right now I'd say he'd be a great prospect for the Arkle.

            Comment


            • One I'm very interested in at the moment is Mengli Kahn 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle with PP.

              I have a total love for 5 year olds that place in the Supreme, it's usually a sign of a potential superstar.

              Examples: Melon, Min, Buveur D'Air, Douvan, Sizing John, Vautour, Jezki, Sprinter Sacre.

              I assume he will go down the Petit Mouchair route and have a craic at it, hard not to think he'd have been there or there abouts on a sounder surface.

              Comment


              • Have backed
                Samcro at 8s - RSA
                P Percy 6s G Cup
                Laurina 14s Champion Hurdle

                In a Trixie
                Whether any of them get to post in those races is another thing

                Comment


                • re: the point on Death Duty going for the JLT - do we think that was maybe a correction of getting his novice hurdle wrong by sending him to the Bartlett, and hence why they sent Samcro to the Ballymore? i.e that RSA is an option because of an easier novice hurdling campaign

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                    Great reply Kev, so here comes my counter (well slightly, I agree with most of your points).

                    The perceived 'best' chaser they had from my own perspective was always Shattered Love, I had absolutely no problem in hyping her up for the RSA thread, only for them to then turn to the JLT, and win it really well, she lived up to my expectations, even if I got the initial race wrong. I was never one to mention Dounikos in as much light, so for that argument I'd still suggest their best chaser went to the JLT (I also had no hiding place should she had ended up getting stuffed, just re-read the RSA thread, I think I mentioned her a little too much )

                    I actually don't think there is a set rule for where Gold Cup runners go with regards to the previous festival runs, Don Cossack (another Gigginstown owned) went RSA, then Ryanair (step back in trip) then Gold Cup, this years winner, as we know went from the 4 miler to the Gold Cup and then the Gold Cup again this year as we know, Road To Respect, who ran a cracking race this year given the ground conditions ran in the Plate (over 2m 4f) then the Gold Cup this year. We know Samcro is heading towards the Gold Cup, I think that is a given, and maybe I was a little too brash with my 'shove him in the RSA' comments, but I don't see why they need to send him for that race to determine him being a Gold Cup horse.

                    If you take the Sizing John route into account (bit of a freak one) too you could now say 'any race' from 2m to 4m could find a Gold Cup winner amongst it.

                    Do you think we worry too much about what races they run in as novices? If a horse is that talented surely the race he runs in leading up to his overall target is irrelevant, as a horse with Samcro's talent will likely win regardless?

                    My own thinking is they will want him to have the easiest race possible, ready for a tough campaign when he takes on the Gold Cup the following year.
                    Some valid points there CoD.

                    I would say Shattered Love wasn't perceived as the best chance of winning the RSA which was most important because Gordon dais he would have ran her in the RSA had Dounikos gone for miler. I think she did have more chance than Dounikos did in the JLT hower she was only in the JLT because they thought the best chance of winning the RSA was with dounikos?
                    Hindsight mates it look like SL is better and you're probably right to think that, but in terms of using her as a reason Samcro might get moved to the JLT because its easier I'd be wary of. Gigginstown don't ever shirk the challenge really.

                    With regards to the set routeI agree on the main, the SJ example though is different because I'm specifically using the owner as a reason for the target.

                    It boils down to this for me ....

                    I do expect Samcro to win any of the 3 races, and I'm convinced that Gigginstown prefer the RSA to the Arkle out JLT. If they could win just one, it would be the RSA... which is why I'm at where I'm at. The horse can win any, so will be in the of they want him in ... unless he proves he doesn't want the staying trip

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Folski View Post
                      One I'm very interested in at the moment is Mengli Kahn 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle with PP.

                      I have a total love for 5 year olds that place in the Supreme, it's usually a sign of a potential superstar.

                      Examples: Melon, Min, Buveur D'Air, Douvan, Sizing John, Vautour, Jezki, Sprinter Sacre.

                      I assume he will go down the Petit Mouchair route and have a craic at it, hard not to think he'd have been there or there abouts on a sounder surface.
                      I assumed he'd go chasing because he's so big ... hadn't thought about the Petit Mouchoir route. When PM switched to GE they'd said he'd go chasing while worth Willie but he didn't with Elliott and that worked out well.

                      33s would interest me if I knew he was staying hurdling

                      Comment


                      • Had some money left in the account so thought I'd do a Canadian: Buveur D'air - Champ Hurdle, Laurina - Mares, Samcro - RSA, Altior - Champ Chase & Penhill - Stayers. Targets for Laurina and Samcro are far from set in stone but I'll take a gamble on them going here.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          I assumed he'd go chasing because he's so big ... hadn't thought about the Petit Mouchoir route. When PM switched to GE they'd said he'd go chasing while worth Willie but he didn't with Elliott and that worked out well.

                          33s would interest me if I knew he was staying hurdling
                          Could well go over fences, the fly in the ointment could be Farclas, you would imagine he would stay hurdling.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            Some valid points there CoD.

                            I would say Shattered Love wasn't perceived as the best chance of winning the RSA which was most important because Gordon dais he would have ran her in the RSA had Dounikos gone for miler. I think she did have more chance than Dounikos did in the JLT hower she was only in the JLT because they thought the best chance of winning the RSA was with dounikos?
                            Hindsight mates it look like SL is better and you're probably right to think that, but in terms of using her as a reason Samcro might get moved to the JLT because its easier I'd be wary of. Gigginstown don't ever shirk the challenge really.

                            With regards to the set routeI agree on the main, the SJ example though is different because I'm specifically using the owner as a reason for the target.

                            It boils down to this for me ....

                            I do expect Samcro to win any of the 3 races, and I'm convinced that Gigginstown prefer the RSA to the Arkle out JLT. If they could win just one, it would be the RSA... which is why I'm at where I'm at. The horse can win any, so will be in the of they want him in ... unless he proves he doesn't want the staying trip
                            And that is why I will just be backing him in the 'Any Race' market (although a predictably poorer price than guessing the race) until we get a clearer picture. I think I have seen every race possible as a target from one person or another, that's how hard this one is to take aim at IMO. 5/2 (WH) for a predicted odds on banker come the festival, assuming he gets there well, which we all hope he does, will seem like a solid price.....IN A YEARS TIME

                            That said I am still open to the debate about which race he goes for
                            Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 20 March 2018, 03:02 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Will William Hill offer the to win any race prices in shop? Would be handy to chuck a few quid a week on Samcro and Laurina

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                                And that is why I will just be backing him in the 'Any Race' market (although a predictably poorer price than guessing the race) until we get a clearer picture. I think I have seen every race possible as a target from one person or another, that's how hard this one is to take aim at IMO. 5/2 (WH) for a predicted odds on banker come the festival, assuming he gets there well, which we all hope he does, will seem like a solid price.....IN A YEARS TIME

                                That said I am still open to the debate about which race he goes for
                                I can see why you would think JLT. He obviously has buckets of pace, and has already beat everything from the Neptune.

                                Would anything from either the Albert Bartlett or Stayers really scare them though.

                                Comment

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