Cheltenham 2019 Ante-Post bets

[BigChaang]

Decent bet on Topofthegame today for the R.s.a @ 20-1. .

[Kevloaf]

Anyone got an update on Fagan. I see Sky have put him in the Foxhunters at 20/1

[Kevloaf]

I had one of those days where everything goes right today, even won a football bet!

It's best price 51/1 for the Mullins/Sullivan/Walsh combination to mop up in the Mares races at the festival.

Laurina - Mares Hurdle 3/1
Chante Neige - Mares Novice Hurdle 12/1

2 pts on the double at 51/1

I've had enough 'free bets' on Laurina at 14/1 and 12/1 in the CH and Ista may well be right that she ends up here. It is the natural progression from the Mares Novice race and she's already shown she can win at the trip.

Chante Neige has been put up as the owners 'one to follow' and lazy as it is, if they won the race last year, they'll know what it takes. 100% with the right trainer and it isn't hard to see the double being very short 5 months from now... a lot of ifs and buts, but I do love a 'relatable' double

[Istabraq]

What is your view on the Supreme not being a good trial for the Champion Hurdle Sean?

That is something that does get said (with the Ballymore/Neptune often being preferred)

The last horse to win a Supreme that won a Champion Hurdle was Brave Inca in 2006 (came 3rd in 2005 then won in 2006 after winning the 2004 Supreme) - Hors La Loi III also won the Supreme and a CH although 3 years apart.

Prior to that I can't really see one? - My thoughts are that it's incredibly odd considering it is course and distance, AND a lot of horses 'probably' could have won a CH but went chasing... but it's still pretty odd that no winner of the Supreme has followed up in the CH the next season in the last ?

I am not a trends guy at all but this far out it is in the back of my mind ....

This one surprised me a bit because I had a pre-determined view that the majority of Champion Hurdle winners come through the Neptune/Ballymore, but the stats don't conclusively bear that out.

2017 and 2018 Buveur D'Air - came from Altiors Supreme
2014 Jezki - came from Champage Fever's Supreme
2010 Binocular - came from Captain Cee Bees Supreme (despite being just 4yo)
2007 Sublimity - came from Noland's Supreme
2006 Barave Inca - won 2005 Supreme

So it's true no horse has won the Supreme and gone on to Champion Hurdle glory the following season but the race has produced a good number of winners...

[Hurricane fly]

Is part of reading for the lack of trend the fact that the Supreme winner recently has been going chasing the year after.

Of the recent placed horses

River Wylde
Altior/Min
Douvan/Shaneshill/Sizing John
Vautour/Josses Hill/Vaniteux
Champagne Fever
Al Ferof/Sprinter Sacre

All went chasing and most subsequently placed the following year

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think that is a massive part of it HF. Altior would have almost certainly been a Champion Hurdle winner had he stayed over timber.

[Scooby91]

Antepost so far in total

Gold cup
Al boum photo 36.0
Monalee 50.0
Shattered love 65.0
Top notch 240.0

Supreme*
Annamix 20/1

Ballymore
Blackbow 25/1
Carefully selected 25/1

Mares novice*
Chante neige 12/1

ANY RACE

fenta des obeaux 33/1*

farid 33/1*

Allaho 20/1*

never adapt 33/1*

adjali 20/1* + triumph hurdle 33/1

Rhinestone 25/1*

Dento des obeaux 25/1


Updated,
Novice chasers

Claimantakinforgan JLT 33/1
Target is the one if he's good enough, i believe he will be.

Delta Work 16/1 Any race
Iv always liked him and I think his run at punchestown was exceptional,
(should have took 20s, but) I'm happy with 16s as it's Rsa / 4 miler/ handicap, Gordon knows what he's doing.

[Faugheen_Machine]

My list at the moment:

Champion Hurdle
Buveur D'air 3.7/1 (and doubled with Tiger Roll from last season's GN)
Samcro 8/1 & 7/1
If The Cap Fits 40/1

Gold Cup
Presenting Percy 13/2 & 6/1 (& last leg of a treble with 8/1 & 12/1 winners)

Ryanair
Monalee 16/1

Stayers
Penhill 8/1

Mares
Apples Jade 11/2

Supreme
Tornado Flyer 25/1

Ballymore
Commander of Fleet 22/1

RSA
Togofthegame 28/1

JLT
Black Op 12/1
Kalashnikov 28/1

Mares Novice
Chante Neige 12/1

Champion Bumper
Energumene 50/1

Any Race
Samcro 11/4
OK Corral 27/1
Santini 13/1
Farid 36/1
Danny Kirwan 15/1

I think that's all the singles......

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve made a spreadsheet for the first time to track my bets

Just wondering if anyone has any idea how I can use it to calculate returns on lucky 15s /Yankees?

[Faugheen_Machine]

I’ve made a spreadsheet for the first time to track my bets

Just wondering if anyone has any idea how I can use it to calculate returns on lucky 15s /Yankees?

I think it is possible but it requires quite a complicated spreadsheet. You'll need a column for each selection, then additional columns for price and finishing position. You should be able to use an 'IF' formula to calculate returns based on how many of your selections win.

I just manually input my returns for these type of bets HF.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Go on then talk me into it, here's me:

Supreme
Annamix 22 (and some other multi's where he is the last leg)

Arkle
Kalshnikov 14/1

Champion Hurdle
Ifthecapfits 50/1 (1 pound E/W double with 60/1 golf winner)
Melon 8s, Samcro 7s, Summerville Boy 16s, Buveur Dair 3.7s (small stakes, free bets, small multis) - the first race I planned a book on scuppered by Samcro - leaving well alone now

National Hunt
Baracdys 33/1
Ok Corral 33/1

Ballymore
Commander of Fleet 22/1

RSA
Santini 12/1
On the Blind Side 22/1
Topofthegame 28/1

JLT
Kalashnikov 28/1

Mares Novice Hurdle
Chante Niege 13/1

Gold Cup
Presenting Percy 6/1

Any Race
Kalshnikov 8/1

[Folski]

Can ye give some background on the Fenta/Dento Des Obeaux & Farin lads, as I haven't heard of them.

[Scooby91]

Can ye give some background on the Fenta/Dento Des Obeaux & Farin lads, as I haven't heard of them.

jp / mullins (aqps) bumper horses, set to be juvenile hurdlers farin won the same race defi de seuil and espoir d'allen won,

fenta is a filly (jp / mullins) who won the female equivalent he's since purchased the 2nd out of the race, No guarentee either or both will run as a juvenile.

Dento is a novice hurdler for sullivan, decent reports on homework. Aparrently goes well

[Folski]

jp / mullins (aqps) bumper horses, set to be juvenile hurdlers farin won the same race defi de seuil and espoir d'allen won,

fenta is a filly (jp / mullins) who won the female equivalent he's since purchased the 2nd out of the race, No guarentee either or both will run as a juvenile.

Dento is a novice hurdler for sullivan, decent reports on homework. Aparrently goes well

Appreciated Scooby

[somer1]

Archie.Could i please pick your brain about a Mullins horse?
What do you know about a horse called Eileen O as my mothers name was Eileen and our surname begins with an O.
Many thanks Mike.