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  1. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Yeah I'll do the work after work while you watch countdown ...
    How kind of you

  2. #12
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanh97 View Post
    Let us know once youve checked those averages Kev
    So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

    Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
    2.25L over The New One
    3.5L over Irving
    5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
    4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
    1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
    2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
    3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
    0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
    7L over Breath of BLighty
    11L over Wait For Me

    Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

    Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
    8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
    6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
    13L over Fox Norton
    18L over Marracudja
    6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
    63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
    7L over Min G1 Supreme
    13L over Open Eagle
    0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
    1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
    34L over Murray Mount

    Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

    Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
    8L over Frodon
    2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
    Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
    30L over Gorran Haven
    14L over Premier Bond
    8L over Simply A Legend
    1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
    15L over Royalraise

    Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

    What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

    You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

    A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
    Champion Hurdle - won by:
    4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
    Average 2.3L

    Champion Chase - won by:
    0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
    Average 6.8L

    Gold Cup - won by:
    2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

    Summary of that....

    50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
    70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
    80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


    I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

    To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!

  3. #13
    But did that bet end in a pick up kev?

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

    Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
    2.25L over The New One
    3.5L over Irving
    5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
    4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
    1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
    2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
    3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
    0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
    7L over Breath of BLighty
    11L over Wait For Me

    Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

    Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
    8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
    6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
    13L over Fox Norton
    18L over Marracudja
    6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
    63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
    7L over Min G1 Supreme
    13L over Open Eagle
    0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
    1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
    34L over Murray Mount

    Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

    Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
    8L over Frodon
    2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
    Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
    30L over Gorran Haven
    14L over Premier Bond
    8L over Simply A Legend
    1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
    15L over Royalraise

    Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

    What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

    You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

    A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
    Champion Hurdle - won by:
    4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
    Average 2.3L

    Champion Chase - won by:
    0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
    Average 6.8L

    Gold Cup - won by:
    2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

    Summary of that....

    50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
    70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
    80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


    I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

    To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!
    haha...that last sentence made me chuckle

  5. #15
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by somer1 View Post
    But did that bet end in a pick up kev?
    Which bet?

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

    Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
    2.25L over The New One
    3.5L over Irving
    5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
    4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
    1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
    2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
    3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
    0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
    7L over Breath of BLighty
    11L over Wait For Me

    Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

    Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
    8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
    6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
    13L over Fox Norton
    18L over Marracudja
    6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
    63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
    7L over Min G1 Supreme
    13L over Open Eagle
    0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
    1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
    34L over Murray Mount

    Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

    Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
    8L over Frodon
    2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
    Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
    30L over Gorran Haven
    14L over Premier Bond
    8L over Simply A Legend
    1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
    15L over Royalraise

    Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

    What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

    You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

    A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
    Champion Hurdle - won by:
    4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
    Average 2.3L

    Champion Chase - won by:
    0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
    Average 6.8L

    Gold Cup - won by:
    2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

    Summary of that....

    50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
    70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
    80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


    I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

    To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!

    Legend Kev. Superb stuff.

  7. #17
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    I rest my case Kev , you should be on the staff at the Racing post , OR " are you Tom Segal in disguise "

  8. #18
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    Great work that Kev

  9. #19
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    Cracking info Kev

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

    Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
    2.25L over The New One
    3.5L over Irving
    5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
    4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
    1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
    2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
    3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
    0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
    7L over Breath of BLighty
    11L over Wait For Me

    Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

    Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
    8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
    6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
    13L over Fox Norton
    18L over Marracudja
    6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
    63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
    7L over Min G1 Supreme
    13L over Open Eagle
    0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
    1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
    34L over Murray Mount

    Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

    Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
    1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
    8L over Frodon
    2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
    Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
    30L over Gorran Haven
    14L over Premier Bond
    8L over Simply A Legend
    1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
    15L over Royalraise

    Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

    What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

    You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

    A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
    Champion Hurdle - won by:
    4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
    Average 2.3L

    Champion Chase - won by:
    0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
    Average 6.8L

    Gold Cup - won by:
    2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

    Summary of that....

    50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
    70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
    80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


    I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

    To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!
    Only just seen this Kev. Cracking work. You’ve excelled yourself.

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