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2018 Bookie Specials

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  • 2018 Bookie Specials

    Post your Cheltenham Bookie Specials here...

    William Hill - 32 Days to go
    Buveur D'air, Altior & Might Bite all to win by OVER 2 lengths - 32/1

    Not for me

  • #2
    Originally posted by Leman14 View Post
    Post your Cheltenham Bookie Specials here...

    William Hill - 32 Days to go
    Buveur D'air, Altior & Might Bite all to win by OVER 2 lengths - 32/1

    Not for me
    not for me either

    Comment


    • #3
      Matchbook exchange 0% Commission until the end of the Festival is worth the change over. Hopefully Betfair will follow suit

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Leman14 View Post
        Post your Cheltenham Bookie Specials here...

        William Hill - 32 Days to go
        Buveur D'air, Altior & Might Bite all to win by OVER 2 lengths - 32/1

        Not for me
        As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price that's not that bad is it?

        BVD isn't the perfect horse for any distance bet really BUT was over 2l last year

        Altior has stiff competition but did beat the likely 2nd fav by plenty more than 2L last time they met.

        Might Bite again isn't ideal because he idles BUT could easily have them all strung out.

        Certainly worth a second look?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price that's not that bad is it?

          BVD isn't the perfect horse for any distance bet really BUT was over 2l last year

          Altior has stiff competition but did beat the likely 2nd fav by plenty more than 2L last time they met.

          Might Bite again isn't ideal because he idles BUT could easily have them all strung out.

          Certainly worth a second look?
          Agreed, worth a 2nd look - but a great deal will depend on what is already in your book.
          Not a huge fan of "Winning Distance" Specials anyway and I have B D'air and MB are well covered in numerous multiples.

          However, for those that haven't go these covered - it may be worth a cheeky point

          Comment


          • #6
            No I don't like distacne bets either as a rule. Mainly because I can't price up the difference between a win and a 2L win myself.

            Personally I'm tempted because I think that treble is too short but 2L isn't that far for it to be over twice the price BUT I want to check previous and average winning distances for those 3 and the 3 races.

            Comment


            • #7
              Also worth noting the "wording" OVER 2 lengths.
              I would hate for the bet to go down over a technicality (ie. Might Bite winning by exactly 2 lengths)

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                No I don't like distacne bets either as a rule. Mainly because I can't price up the difference between a win and a 2L win myself.

                Personally I'm tempted because I think that treble is too short but 2L isn't that far for it to be over twice the price BUT I want to check previous and average winning distances for those 3 and the 3 races.
                Let us know once youve checked those averages Kev

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by ryanh97 View Post
                  Let us know once youve checked those averages Kev
                  Yeah I'll do the work after work while you watch countdown ...

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Don’t knock countdown...

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Yeah I'll do the work after work while you watch countdown ...
                      How kind of you

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ryanh97 View Post
                        Let us know once youve checked those averages Kev
                        So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

                        Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
                        1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
                        2.25L over The New One
                        3.5L over Irving
                        5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
                        4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
                        1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
                        2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
                        3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
                        0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
                        7L over Breath of BLighty
                        11L over Wait For Me

                        Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

                        Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
                        8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
                        6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
                        13L over Fox Norton
                        18L over Marracudja
                        6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
                        63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
                        7L over Min G1 Supreme
                        13L over Open Eagle
                        0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
                        1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
                        34L over Murray Mount

                        Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

                        Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
                        1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
                        8L over Frodon
                        2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
                        Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
                        30L over Gorran Haven
                        14L over Premier Bond
                        8L over Simply A Legend
                        1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
                        15L over Royalraise

                        Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

                        What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

                        You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

                        A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
                        Champion Hurdle - won by:
                        4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
                        Average 2.3L

                        Champion Chase - won by:
                        0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
                        Average 6.8L

                        Gold Cup - won by:
                        2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

                        Summary of that....

                        50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
                        70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
                        80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


                        I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

                        To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          But did that bet end in a pick up kev?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            So, as ryan demands As the treble is only 13.58/1 best price I trhought I'd have look at some distances etc...

                            Buveur D'air's wins have been by (as decimal)
                            1.75L over John Constable, Jockey messing around?
                            2.25L over The New One
                            3.5L over Irving
                            5L Over My Tent Or Yours - Grade 1 Aintree Hurdke
                            4.5L Over MTOY - Champion Hurdle
                            1.5L over Rayvin Black - jockey messing around
                            2.25L - over Gino Trail in a CHASE
                            3.25L over Cloudy Dream in a CHASE
                            0.25L This was actually a neck over Petit Mouchoir G1 at Aintree
                            7L over Breath of BLighty
                            11L over Wait For Me

                            Average of 3.8 lengths for Buveur D'air

                            Altior's wins have been by (as decimal)
                            8L over Special Tiara G1 at Sandown
                            6L over Cloudy Dream G1 Arkle
                            13L over Fox Norton
                            18L over Marracudja
                            6L over Charbel G1 at Sandown
                            63L over Black Corton (2 runner race)
                            7L over Min G1 Supreme
                            13L over Open Eagle
                            0.5L over Maputo - strongly ridden out - novice hurdle trial
                            1.25L over ch'tibello - stroingly ridden out - novice hurdle
                            34L over Murray Mount

                            Average of 15.4 lengths for Altior

                            Might Bite's wins have been by (as decimal)
                            1L over DOuble Shuffle G1 King George
                            8L over Frodon
                            2L over Whisper at Aintree G1
                            Nose over WHisper - (Chelt) idling when veered right 1f out, headed final 130yds, ran on again final 90yds, led final stride
                            30L over Gorran Haven
                            14L over Premier Bond
                            8L over Simply A Legend
                            1L over Souriyan - (Chelt) hung right and idled after last, joined final 120yds, ran on again to assert nearing
                            15L over Royalraise

                            Average of 8.7 lengths for Might Bite

                            What can we summarise? Obviously the value of each of those distances is incredibly unstable, as they range from horses optimum conditions to almost pointless bits of form, and some of the defeats may well be better form than some of the wins etc - however it does show that on average all 3 of the horses are over the 2L mark... which would be a positive?

                            You'd DEFINITELY worry that Might Bite has NOT hit the critera on 2 of the occasions that were at Cheltenham though, although the RSA win if he didn't idle would have been miles over 2L! Big IF though!

                            A look back at the last 10 years for each of the races (again, hard to put a value on the relevance of this BUT...)
                            Champion Hurdle - won by:
                            4.5, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 2.5, 3.75, 1.25, 3.5, 0.25, 1
                            Average 2.3L

                            Champion Chase - won by:
                            0.1, 3.5, 1.25, 6, 19, 1.25, 5, 6, 7, 19
                            Average 6.8L

                            Gold Cup - won by:
                            2.75, 4.5, 1.5, 0.25, 7, 2.25, 7, 7, 13, 7, 2.5

                            Summary of that....

                            50% of the last 10 CH's would have qualified
                            70% of the last 10 CC's would have qualified
                            80% of the last 10 GC's would have qualfied.


                            I suppose first things first is you need to be confident all 3 will win

                            To be perfectly honest, I don't know how useful this information is, but because I've spent 28 minutes on it I am much more inclined to have the bet than I was 30 minutes ago!
                            haha...that last sentence made me chuckle

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by somer1 View Post
                              But did that bet end in a pick up kev?
                              Which bet?

                              Comment

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