Brown Advisory Plate 2018

[ComplyOrDie]

Just had 4pts e/way on Romain De Senam! 16/1 NRNB!

[Kevloaf]

Just had 4pts e/way on Romain De Senam! 16/1 NRNB!

I'm struggling a little with RDS to see why he'd get any better? HE's clearly got form to be "in the mix" and your write up is very good a few pages back, I just noticed though that he was pulled out because of the good ground previously in the spring... that would worry me and you mentioned he's not suited to softer ground?

His last two runs, both at Cheltenham, both beaten quite fairly and I don't see where the massive turnaround would come from?

As ever, I'm willing to be convinced, but I am struggling to see why you're so keen?

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm struggling a little with RDS to see why he'd get any better? HE's clearly got form to be "in the mix" and your write up is very good a few pages back, I just noticed though that he was pulled out because of the good ground previously in the spring... that would worry me and you mentioned he's not suited to softer ground?

His last two runs, both at Cheltenham, both beaten quite fairly and I don't see where the massive turnaround would come from?

As ever, I'm willing to be convinced, but I am struggling to see why you're so keen?

I never really got why he was pulled from the festival last season, especially as that same weekend on the Saturday he raced at Kempton on 'Good' ground, then in April 'Good' ground again, and tbh 5 times in total last season he ran on 'Good', twice on Good/Soft.

His most recent form was on 'Soft' which, if you looked at his 'Soft' ground form you'd see there is a pattern developing, and involves the horse losing. On 'Good' ground he is 3 from 8, plus finished 2nd another twice, he's only once been absolutely stuffed when the going has been 'Good' and funnily enough it was that race at Kempton the weekend of that festival, so I'm going to suggest something wasn't right with him, rather than him being pulled from the festival on ground concerns, regardless of what connections say.

Even if it was Good/Soft that is manageable for him, winning 1 to date and finishing 2nd twice, and 3rd twice on the other occasions, albeit the fields were very small, but more important than his finishing position are the short distances he was beaten for me, nothing over 6 lengths, the 6 lengths being against Top Notch.

All the above includes not just chase form, but hurdles as well, I know the discipline is different but the going is the going regardless of what they race over.

He was beaten fair and square regarding the last 2 races yeah, but Tully East was beaten fair and square in one of them races too and behind RDS as well albeit only a neck but will also likely find himself worse off at the weights too yet finds himself the favourite for the race. For me RDS improves for better ground, as I am sure TE will too, but he's got to overturn the form.

[JackieMoon33]

I never really got why he was pulled from the festival last season, especially as that same weekend on the Saturday he raced at Kempton on 'Good' ground, then in April 'Good' ground again, and tbh 5 times in total last season he ran on 'Good', twice on Good/Soft.

His most recent form was on 'Soft' which, if you looked at his 'Soft' ground form you'd see there is a pattern developing, and involves the horse losing. On 'Good' ground he is 3 from 8, plus finished 2nd another twice, he's only once been absolutely stuffed when the going has been 'Good' and funnily enough it was that race at Kempton the weekend of that festival, so I'm going to suggest something wasn't right with him, rather than him being pulled from the festival on ground concerns, regardless of what connections say.

He didn't get pulled from the Festival, he missed the cut in the Close Brothers Novices Handicap chase as they tried to be too clever with his mark and he missed out.

[ComplyOrDie]

He didn't get pulled from the Festival, he missed the cut in the Close Brothers Novices Handicap chase as they tried to be too clever with his mark and he missed out.

Perfect, thanks Jackie No mistake this year!

[Kevloaf]

Yeah it was Sandown he was pulled for "ground" - when it was 'good'

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/882824/romain-de-senam

I see you've had a healthy bet on him so best of luck. A close form tie to Tully East certainly puts him there ore thereabouts IMO

[Viking Flagship]

I'm also a Romain De Senam fan - having just turned 6yo I think there is plenty of reason to expect improvement especially when given some decent ground. Nicholls almost didn't send him for the BetVictor due to inexperience but on reflection that's probably done him some good. Been given a nice break and I've no doubt been trained with this race in mind since his last run. I've no idea what the story is behind "ground" being officially used as the reason for his Sandown defection but Nicholls has maintained this horse wants decent ground, as mentioned here:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/in-form-nicholls-readies-three-as-he-eyes-fifth-strike-in-big-chase/311851

I backed Tully East at a boosted 17.5/1 when Hills started their non-runner insurance and I've since added RDS. I'm very happy with those two and I think that is actually me done for this race, barring incident.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm also a Romain De Senam fan - having just turned 6yo I think there is plenty of reason to expect improvement especially when given some decent ground. Nicholls almost didn't send him for the BetVictor due to inexperience but on reflection that's probably done him some good. Been given a nice break and I've no doubt been trained with this race in mind since his last run. I've no idea what the story is behind "ground" being officially used as the reason for his Sandown defection but Nicholls has maintained this horse wants decent ground, as mentioned here:

https://www.racingpost.com/news/in-form-nicholls-readies-three-as-he-eyes-fifth-strike-in-big-chase/311851

I backed Tully East at a boosted 17.5/1 when Hills started their non-runner insurance and I've since added RDS. I'm very happy with those two and I think that is actually me done for this race, barring incident.

That link he is quoted as saying he wants "really decent ground" so has run him on 'soft' the last twice Plot job

Also want to point out his record fresh (he'll be coming off the back of 90 days off the track), his form when fresh reads 1-2-2-1 since he has been with Nicholls, his two 2nds were against Top Notch on his chase debut, and behind Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter at the festival 2 seasons ago.

[doctorwu]

COD,
Do you know if RDS has any other entries?
TIA

[ComplyOrDie]

COD,
Do you know if RDS has any other entries?
TIA

Not that I know of, but stand to be corrected

[doctorwu]

Im tempted to take the 25s with SJames forgoing the NRNB

[Kevloaf]

Also want to point out his record fresh (he'll be coming off the back of 90 days off the track), his form when fresh reads 1-2-2-1 since he has been with Nicholls, his two 2nds were against Top Notch on his chase debut, and behind Diego Du Charmil in the Fred Winter at the festival 2 seasons ago.

That point tweaks my interest more than any of the others so far.

SLightly related note, but Harry Derham on the FFP put up Bouvreuil as one he thinks will be a big price and will run well (good festival record too, 2nd in the Close Brothers and 3rd in the same race last year) 25/1 available about him?

[ComplyOrDie]

That point tweaks my interest more than any of the others so far.

SLightly related note, but Harry Derham on the FFP put up Bouvreuil as one he thinks will be a big price and will run well (good festival record too, 2nd in the Close Brothers and 3rd in the same race last year) 25/1 available about him?

Like Bouvreuil, but out of touch so far this season, maybe excuses?

Funnily enough, had him and Ballyalton that year in the Close Brothers handicap.

Seems to run best around spring, so definitely one of note.

[Kevloaf]

RDS fans will enjoy this.... it starts about MWTT

[Bayoffreedom]

Can someone please explain why The Storyteller is 16/1 for this and Snow Falcon is 33/1 when the latter will be much better suited to the likely better ground and there is nothing between on their running at Leopardstown? (in fact, I would argue Snow Falcon ran like the better horse and would uphold the form anyway)