Davy Russell rides at the 2018 festival

[Kevloaf]

I know these jump jockeys are one tough lot but for me this is a pretty interesting pre Cheltenham story that seems to be slipping under the radar, especially when it was intimated he would be fine for the Dublin Racing Festival over two weeks ago.

The problem from a punting perspective is that it is impossible to quantify the effect a jockey has on the result of a race and then how things will pan out if said jockey is only 95%. But I don't think I'd be lumping on Ruby at odds on to be top jock.

Is he still 1/2?

Would you want the field at 2/1?
Over any of the other prices?

My answer is boring, I wouldn't back or lay it!

Rather than back him at 1/2 - back Footpad instead at 10/11 - Does he lose the first two races and stay 1/2? I Don't think so.... he might be a backable price if they've both lost...

IF Footpad wins, he's on his way to being top jock and you're already paid out....

On that basis alone 1/2 is a terrible price?

[giantchelsea]

Is he still 1/2?

Would you want the field at 2/1?
Over any of the other prices?

My answer is boring, I wouldn't back or lay it!

Rather than back him at 1/2 - back Footpad instead at 10/11 - Does he lose the first two races and stay 1/2? I Don't think so.... he might be a backable price if they've both lost...

IF Footpad wins, he's on his way to being top jock and you're already paid out....

On that basis alone 1/2 is a terrible price?

Most bookmakers have suspended betting at the moment but Hills are 4/6. Perhaps there is more to this than has been said

[archie]

I know these jump jockeys are one tough lot but for me this is a pretty interesting pre Cheltenham story that seems to be slipping under the radar, especially when it was intimated he would be fine for the Dublin Racing Festival over two weeks ago.

The problem from a punting perspective is that it is impossible to quantify the effect a jockey has on the result of a race and then how things will pan out if said jockey is only 95%. But I don't think I'd be lumping on Ruby at odds on to be top jock.

As far as I know, it was never intimated that he would be back for the Dublin Festival.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/ruby-walsh-plans-february-return-from-broken-leg-1.3349765

This is the latest published information:

http://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Walsh-back-riding-work&prid=189241

[ComplyOrDie]

I know this is the Davy Russell thread, but Robbie Power has been given all of the Tizzard/Potts rides for the festival, happy with that as Cooper has struggled massively IMO in recent months.

He seems to have lost the confidence of a lot of trainers too.

[robith]

I know this is the Davy Russell thread, but Robbie Power has been given all of the Tizzard/Potts rides for the festival, happy with that as Cooper has struggled massively IMO in recent months.

He seems to have lost the confidence of a lot of trainers too.

I feel desperately sorry for him. Is there any reason beyond maybe confidence post injury?

[giantchelsea]

As far as I know, it was never intimated that he would be back for the Dublin Festival.

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/ruby-walsh-plans-february-return-from-broken-leg-1.3349765

This is the latest published information:
http://www.irishracing.com/news?head...rk&prid=189241

Cheers mate.

I was sure I read around Christmas time that the target was the Dublin Festival, but I can't find the article now so I'm beginning to doubt myself.

[ComplyOrDie]

Timeform just posted a tweet and link for jockeys at Cheltenham over the past 5 years.

Of course, top of the list with regards to profitability is the man himself, Davy Russell, but the top jockey (excluding amateurs) with an unreal win rate of 24% is the main man, Ruby Walsh, no surprise given the connections he rides for but to actually hit 24% from 89 rides is ridiculously good IMHO.

Jamie Codd takes top amateur honours with a higher win rate than Walsh at 26% but doesn't even scratch the surface with number of rides, only the 18 in 5 years.

No surprise to myself, despite the fact I usually get a battering for ever slating him as he is the champion jockey but Richard Johnson has a poor 5% win rate, bottom of the main jockey list in both profitability and win percentage.

They note Russell's handicap form, and also notable mentions to Paul Townend being more succesful over hurdles, and Scudamore doing best over fences, something that did surprise me was Bryan Cooper noted as being better over fences at the festival than he is hurdles, and would have been profitable to follow him doing that.

[jono]

Davy Russell 2018 Festival rides:

4332P
01P5F
111P
083

Handicaps:

PP1103

Jack Kennedy as well:

33P
1P31
1
10P

Handicaps:

310

[Folski]

I feel desperately sorry for him. Is there any reason beyond maybe confidence post injury?

I have heard a few stories but to summarize apparently Bryan was not too overly nice to people on the way up and they are not being nice to him on the way down.

I also heard that his dad had a horse in training for a group of local lads that they paid about €15k for and were solely looking for a day out anywhere in Ireland, where he might win. They were told by his dad that the horse was simply no good at all. Bryan proceeded to tell Olly Murphy the horse would definitely win races in the UK. He's won 4 handicap hurdles since the 10th of Feb (Calipso Collonges). He was sold for €2k, the owner reckons that they simply wanted the horse out of the stable to make room for horses owned by Brooks that Tom is pre-training.

In the 3 times I've bumped into Bryan he's not come across very well.

I was in a local pub when he won on Don Cossack and there was genuine delight for him but I couldn't believe the difference last week when in the same pub and the comments being made.

[robith]

I have heard a few stories but to summarize apparently Bryan was not too overly nice to people on the way up and they are not being nice to him on the way down.

I also heard that his dad had a horse in training for a group of local lads that they paid about €15k for and were solely looking for a day out anywhere in Ireland, where he might win. They were told by his dad that the horse was simply no good at all. Bryan proceeded to tell Olly Murphy the horse would definitely win races in the UK. He's won 4 handicap hurdles since the 10th of Feb (Calipso Collonges). He was sold for €2k, the owner reckons that they simply wanted the horse out of the stable to make room for horses owned by Brooks that Tom is pre-training.

In the 3 times I've bumped into Bryan he's not come across very well.

I was in a local pub when he won on Don Cossack and there was genuine delight for him but I couldn't believe the difference last week when in the same pub and the comments being made.

That doesn't really explain why his riding hasn't been very good though. He's looked terrified every time I've seen him this season

[Folski]

That doesn't really explain why his riding hasn't been very good though. He's looked terrified every time I've seen him this season

He's never been the same jockey since he broke his leg on Clarcam. To be fair was a very bad break and was talk of amputation at one point. Bottle is gone since then IMO.