Lay of the festival

[Hurricane fly]

Arctic Fire last year

Dropped a stone in the weights for the county

[Middle_Of_March]

Little bump on this thread.

Who would you all lay from here?

My views of the shorties are:
- Laurina at evens could be too short but I haven’t decided what to do with her yet.
- I’ve not laid Footpad but I’ve been on Petit Mouchoir all year and have been topping up after his last run. I see the latter has shortened up in the last few days and Footpad has drifted slightly from the crazy price after the Irish Arkle.
- BD should win easy if Faugheen isn’t there or not at his best. A massively poor race without the peak Faugheen. BD will win.
- Apples Jade - clearly the best mare. Would win the stayers but Gigginistown will take the easier option.
- Samcro - wins any of the three novice hurdles. Will win a top class Ballymore and come out of it as the future superstar of racing.
- Altior - Anyone thinking Min beats Altior is absolutely crazy.
- Apples Shakira - Been on her all year and can’t see anything beating her. Espoir dallen was the danger in my eyes but that last run was terrible. Apples Jade sister really ought to win.
- Might Bite - Looked for an alternative all year and wanted to take him on (Thistkecrack originally, then with blaklion each way at 40s) but the race is really cutting up. Not a bet for me at the prices but he’s the likeliest winner in my eyes.
- Getabird - As impressive as he was last time, this could be a really good Supreme this year and 9/4 is quite short for what he’s done I think. If The Cap Fits I’ve taken him on with.




So really.. there’s a lot of short ones that I’d rather back than lay this year. If a gun was held to my head on which one of those won’t win, I’d go for Laurina. One decent run and suddenly she’s a stupid price. It will be a better race than it has been in previous years and even though Mullins always sends a good one to this race, I’d rather the field at evens. Footpads price at 8/13 the other day was far too short as well. Though it looks a weak Arkle on the whole.

[Scooby91]

Presenting percy rsa
Benie des dieux mares hurdle
samcro supreme (free money)
Willoughby court JLT
Un de sceau Ryanair
Mall dini 4 miler
Petit mouchoir arkle
Politologue qmcc
Max dynamite county hurdle
Waiting patiently any race market
Stay humble bumper


Iv put all the reasons In the individual threads previously.

[billymag]

Scooby do you consider Mall Dini a lay in 4 miler coz you think he'll go elsewhere or coz you dont think like him in the race should he run?

(sorry must of missed your reasoning on the applicable thread, lots and lots of content to keep up with)

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Out of that list Apples Shakira is definitely the one to take on

[Scooby91]

Scooby do you consider Mall Dini a lay in 4 miler coz you think he'll go elsewhere or coz you dont think like him in the race should he run?

(sorry must of missed your reasoning on the applicable thread, lots and lots of content to keep up with)

Both,
but mainly the last part on price alone.

He's priced on support and I believe that support is because he has been deemed a very likely runner for connections and people have gone overboard with his chance because they have him at long odds. Rather than form in the book.

[Hurricane fly]

If I was in the lay game I’d definitely take on Apples Shakira, Max Dynamite and Politologue

[ComplyOrDie]

Well, my lay of the Festival was originally Fayonagh (RIP) for the Supreme, of course I could not have known what was to happen to her further down the line.

Currently though I do think Un De Sceaux is too short for the Ryanair, as well as Presenting Percy in the RSA.

I also think Might Bite should be bigger, he's done nothing wrong, but this is a very tough looking renewal of the Gold Cup IMO, and if he doesn't go off bigger than his current price I have no doubt he will hit bigger in running.

I know this is a lay thread, but Faugheen looks the current best back-to-lay bet on the exchanges for me, IF he turns up, which is seemingly highly likely currently, he doesn't go off the 7/1 that he currently is on the exchanges and the Irish will be backing him for sure. He has the beating of the rest of the field as it stands too!

[archie]

I don't do the exchanges so don't lay but if I did I'd be nominating 3 of Nicky's:
Apples Shakira - just think there are better 4yos out there.
Might Bite - all talk and no substance so far. I'd concede that he could be a superstar but I don't rate what he's done to date.
Altior - good horses who come back from a long absence and run again within 40 days have a very poor record at Cheltenham. According to Timeform, 150+ rated horses off 275 days or more then running a second time within 40 days at the Festival have a success rate of one (Riverside Theatre) from 106 since 2005/6.

[ComplyOrDie]

I don't do the exchanges so don't lay but if I did I'd be nominating 3 of Nicky's:
Apples Shakira - just think there are better 4yos out there..

Hoping by this you mean Stormy Ireland, whispers round the yard when you've been there possibly

All over this one and Apples Shakira, so one of them wins it's a good start to day 4 of the festival for me!