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Long Run: Horse trained by Nicky Henderson

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  • Long Run: Horse trained by Nicky Henderson

    LONG RUN

    7-y-o; bay gelding
    Breeding: Cadoudal (FR) - Libertina (FR)
    Trained by N J Henderson
    Form: 311-2213
    2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and close third in 2012. Good runs in-between and raced off 182 all season. Now 178.

    Nicky Henderson October 2012

    “He looks fantastic – I’ve never seen him better than this. The plan is to do a lot more jumping work with him because I feel he needs to be sharper on his toes a bit. I’d like to find a relatively straightforward contest to start which might be the Betfair Chase then on to the King George and after that the Gold Cup.”
    Last edited by mayo; 4 November 2012, 07:15 PM.

  • #2
    Robert Waley Cohen


    I believe Sam is the right man to ride Long Run and that won’t change."

    “You do not go into National Hunt racing for anything but for fun,” Waley-Cohen Snr said. “It adds massively to the pleasure and the entertainment of it all when you do it with other members of your family, especially when one of them is actually riding your horse.

    “Sam (Waley-Cohen) has had his critics, but he has won a Gold Cup, he has won a King George and he has won three Grade 1s.

    “He also holds the track record as the jockey in the Gold Cup, and the track record for over three miles at Newbury when he won the Denman Chase.

    “These are all facts.

    “I believe Sam is the right man to ride Long Run and that won’t change.

    “The way I see it, while I own the horse and Sam is able to ride it, he will continue to ride it.

    “People will just have to get used to it.”

    On Long Run

    “He looks well,” he said.

    “He’s had a good summer and seems to be nearing full fitness.

    “Nicky (Henderson) is very happy with the way he is at the minute so everything is going to plan.

    “Providing he is fit, we should go to the Betfair (Chase) and King George this year, then another race, and then the Gold Cup.

    “We haven’t quite decided on the race in between the Gold Cup and the King George, but it will either be the Denman Chase, which he won last year, or the Argento at Cheltenham.

    “It all depends on everything nearer the time.

    “It makes sense to give ourselves options.”

    He said: “Of course, our main priority is the Gold Cup, but we have also entered him into the Grand National as a back-up plan for now.

    “He will definitely not go for both races.

    “It would be very irritating to not have any horses in the race (National) at all.

    “We don’t want to be in a position like Nathaniel’s connections were earlier this year when their horse didn’t get to the Arc because he was off-colour for a week.”

    “We are hoping for a good season.”

    Comment


    • #3
      LONG RUN has done particularly well and is bang on track for the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

      Connections believe he may have had a minor issue during part of last season that has now been ironed out.

      Physically there remains few more imposing jumpers in training.

      Comment


      • #4
        LONG RUN
        In his last two races of the 2011/12 season Long Run won the top two chases in the UK, the King George and the Gold Cup; consequently, he was always likely to trade shorter than his overall profile deserved in his next few races.*This possible scenario came to fruition as he traded at odds of 6/5, evens, 4/7 and 7/4 for his four races last season and yet only managed to win one of those contests. He was comprehensively out jumped by Kauto Star in the first two before, perhaps, being a little fortunate to win the Denman (Aon) Chase in February from his more considerately handled stable companion Burton Port. On his final start he ran really well to finish a close third in what was, perhaps, at best an average Gold Cup.

        He has made a significant number of mistakes on each of his four visits to Cheltenham and has also struggled to jump with enough fluency off a fast pace over three miles on flat tracks like Haydock and Kempton. On the other hand, he is clearly a horse with a lot of ability as, despite having been campaigned in the best races, he has managed to finish in the first three in all ten chases he has contested since coming to race in Britain.

        Long Run starts the 2012/13 season off a mark of 178 and should, once again, prove to be one of the best staying chasers around. Nevertheless, despite what the ratings suggest, he is only on a par with at least two or three other rivals, therefore, if he does continue to start at artificially short prices he will remain a horse to mark down and tend away from rather than one to support. Furthermore, the fact that he will continue to be ridden by a good amateur jockey, as opposed to a top professional, should be taken into account when assessing his true place in the market.

        In the 2011 Betfair Chase he was very keen early on, made a few mistakes when the pace quickened and had to be chased along and given a reminder or two down the far side. He eventually finished two lengths clear of Weird Al on the day which he might have to improve upon to be a threat here; furthermore, Weird Al appears to be best when fresh which he will be here as opposed to last year when he came to Haydock on the back of a tough race at Wetherby just three weeks earlier. Long Run holds reasonable claims for the Betfair Chase; nevertheless, at the time of writing he is, once again, trading artificially short at odds of around 6/4, not least because he is yet to race over fences on ground softer than good to soft.

        Comment


        • #5
          Henderson said: "I'd like to think he's a good bit straighter this year than he was last year. He looks big and he looks fantastic.

          "Last year Paul (Nicholls) had Kauto 100% and I thought us being 90% would be enough, but it wasn't. He was probably a bit fresh last year and we got in a boxing match with Kauto, and Kauto punched his lights out.

          "It's a shame his first run is going to be in really testing ground, it's not going to tell us everything, but we're getting a run into him and then I have four weeks until the King George."

          Comment


          • #6
            Despite coming off second best to the Nicholls-Walsh team yet again, Long Run was not disgraced in finishing second and trainer Nicky Henderson was far from despondent.

            Speaking from Ascot, he said: "I haven't spoken to Robert or Sam (Waley-Cohen, owner and rider), but the boys seem very happy. We didn't want to get into a battle today.

            "He had a desperately hard race last year and he's finished off his race nicely today.

            "Hopefully it's onwards and upwards and the King George is where we'll go."

            The rider said: "He's run his race but we've been beaten fair and square. The ground was a bit soft for him but it was the same for all the others and we've got no excuses."

            Waley Cohen senior said: "It's always disappointing to be beaten when you're favourite and maybe the pace of the race was to blame.

            "His jumping was a bit sticky to begin with, but when the pace picked up so did his jumping.

            "He should come on for the run and will now head straight for the King George."

            Comment


            • #7
              The boys are happy ...

              We were pleased with the run. We thought it was a good introduction to the season and gives us a good platform to go to the King George on," said Waley-Cohen.

              "It's always disappointing not to win, but he's run up to a similar mark to his first runs of the season over the last couple of years.

              "He's got to improve from there, but in all his previous seasons he has and we hope he will again.

              "He ran a good race on Saturday and you always have to decide in one of those races whether that's the day to go to the bottom of the tank, and it wasn't.

              "We were keen to avoid a repeat of his hard race against Kauto Star last year. It was very much about doing what you can but not leaving your whole season at Haydock."

              Comment


              • #8
                another stat too easily overlooked

                And what of Long Run? He's now won just once in five starts since his Cheltenham Gold Cup success in 2011 and it could be that that race, where he defeated two of the greats of the game in Kauto and Denman, may just have taken the edge off him. There's a reason why Kauto Star is the only horse in history to regain the Gold Cup and Long Run will this season be the latest charged with that assignment against a particularly talented-looking bunch of second-season chasers.

                Sir Des Champs, Flemenstar, Bobs Worth, Al Ferof and of course Silviniaco Conti are all fresh, unscathed staying chasers with huge potential and their presence in the ante-post market for the Gold Cup are as much a reason for Robert Waley-Cohen's seven-year-old being available at 10/1 for the race, as is the owner's insistence on sticking with son Sam as his pilot.

                Having said all of that, Long Run's seasonal reappearance was satisfactory as far as being a stepping stone for other Grade 1 targets this season goes. Even if he's not as good as he was, it could be that he needs a severe test of stamina to show his best these days and with that in mind he's still very much a player in the King George and Gold Cup.

                On balance he deserves to be favourite for the former contest given that only Al Ferof of the aforementioned five is scheduled to turn up at Kempton. The likes of Cue Card and Sizing Europe are next in the market and they have it to prove at the trip so there could end up being a scenario where Long Run outstays the lot of them.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Mordin suggests Henderson chasers dont last ...

                  Runner up LONG RUN (42) ran a perfectly decent race. He made no more than his now normal series of jumping errors and came there to threaten the winner in the closing stages.

                  I can see how you could argue that Long Run needed this outing and has a great chance of winning the King George again next time out. But I worry that the fact he has grown so much over the last two years has made him a bit slower, more one-paced and clumsy.

                  In this regard it's worth noting that Long Run's trainer Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record with young, lightly raced chasers in top races. Since 1996 his chasers with eight or fewer previous starts over fences have won nine times out of 91 in Grade 1 chases. Those with more than eight previous chase runs have scored only three times out of 37.

                  Two of those three wins were in the BMW Chase at the Punchestown Festival at a time when it was basically a bogus Grade 1 (neither winner ever won another Grade 1 or earned an official or Racing Post rating above 157). The third win was in the so-called 'replacement Gold Cup' run at Sandown during the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001. This was another bogus Grade 1 won by Henderson's Marlborough. The short head runner up was a 149 rated 12yo that lost all 23 pattern races he contested. The third had an official rating of only 145 and never won a pattern race in seven tries.

                  Henderson has been training since 1978 and started out with a top class string. But in his entire career the only horse I can trace that he trained to win a Grade 1 chase after more than nine previous chase starts was Remittance Man who took the Mumm Melling Chase after ten previous chase starts. However Remittance Man only beat three rivals that day, the most fancied of which fell. The runner up was a horse that never won a race worth 5000 or more and Remittance Man earned a Racing Post rating of only 145 for his win.

                  What the stats suggest is that when one of Henderson's top chasers has racked up more than eight or nine previous chase starts you should start looking for signs of deterioration. Long Run has now had fifteen previous starts over fences. He's lost all four times he's run in Grade 1 chases since he's had more than eight previous chase starts.

                  In fact the only win Long Run has scored since his Gold Cup success twenty months ago came by half a length in a five runner Grade 2 where Raceform noted "there's a strong suspicion he'd have finished second had stablemate Burton Port been asked for more of an effort earlier."

                  Long Run exhibited jumping problems all last season despite visiting re-schooling guru Yogi Bresner before the season started and again after the King George. His very best effort since his Gold Cup win was three lengths a mile below his lifetime best on my ratings. He's grown significantly over the last two years and I have a horrible suspicion this has reduced his ability to accelerate and jump fences effectively.

                  With so many smart young novices from last season around Long Run has chosen a tough season to try and stage a comeback. He can obviously still run with the best three mile chasers. But he now seems to lack the change of gear and the jumping skills to actually beat them.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    “He is ahead of this time last year and ahead of where he was in the first year, so hope springs eternal,” Waley-Cohen said. “He is a magnificent looking horse and looks like an emperor surveying his people.”

                    Long Run has never been out of the first three in 11 starts in Britain since being transferred from France in 2009. Since winning the Gold Cup from Denman in 2011, Long Run has yet to show a comparable level of form and Waley-Cohen believes his victory at Cheltenham left its mark.

                    “I think the Gold Cup the hardest race on the whole racing calendar. It takes a lot out of them, and he wasn’t even a six-year-old from the day he was born when he won it.

                    "He never runs well first time out and he had a hard race when taking on Kauto Star first time out (in last year’s Betfair Chase)

                    "After Haydock, I said to Sam, ‘I’m happy, Nicky Henderson is happy, and so nobody else matters. We have complete confidence in you. You did everything you were supposed to do, so onwards and upwards’.”

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Owner Robert Waley-Cohen hopes a tip-top Long Run can regain his crown in the William Hill King George VI Chase at Kempton.

                      Long Run did not please everyone when beaten by Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month, but Waley-Cohen felt there were valid reasons for that defeat.

                      "The race wasn't run to suit at Haydock and the ground was quite tricky for a horse that isn't used to running on that sort of heavy ground," he said.

                      "We were always worried there wouldn't be enough pace and it might turn into a sprint finish - he was always vulnerable to that - but we didn't want him to leave his season behind in that race.

                      "It's possible the Gold Cup he won as a six-year-old might have taken a hell of a lot out of him, it might be that Kauto Star was a hell of a good horse last year.

                      "He had two very hard races earlier last season and that came home to roost in the Gold Cup.

                      "I'm a bit disappointed he didn't improve - he had a good summer and we hoped he'd have moved on, but that said he didn't win a Paddy Power off 158 and ended up finishing that season off 182.

                      "The handicapper has at us 171 after Haydock and I'd hope he would find a bit extra towards the end of the year.

                      "He had a quiet week after Haydock but he's in good order and we hope to have him cherry-ripe for Kempton."

                      Henderson believes Long Run will improve for the Haydock outing.

                      "Everything has gone right. Haydock went much better this year than it did last year, probably thanks to no Kauto Star to thump him," he told At The Races.

                      "OK, we got beaten, but he ran well and was probably straighter and didn't get quite as hard a race.

                      "He improved dramatically from last year's Haydock race to the King George. We only got beaten less then two lengths by Kauto instead of eight.

                      "We'd expect to find that improvement, and I'd be hopeful that the ground is the one thing that can play to his strengths. Everything has gone well, the schooling has gone well and his work has been great.

                      "I think he goes in there with as big a chance as he had two years ago and we'd like the same again.

                      "We'll see where the pace is going to be. We discussed going on at Haydock because there wasn't an obvious pacemaker, but Ruby (Walsh) made his mind up and he was going to make it (on Silviniaco Conti). Ruby set the race up to suit himself. I think we were right to drop off him or we would have got into a slog.

                      "It depends how fast someone wants to go. We haven't discussed making the running yet. We certainly did before the Betfair and I've nothing against that horse lobbing along. He loves his work in front and he schools on his own. he'd do anything you like."

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Henderson said of Long Run: "He's fine, he ate up last night and is a happy bunny. We haven't really digested anything yet.

                        "We were thinking Bobs Worth will go to Cheltenham (for the Argento), because he loves Cheltenham, and Long Run will go to Newbury like last year.

                        "It also gives him a bit more time after the King George, and he'll tell us if he's ready. We'll just be mindful about how much it took out of him because that was tough."

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Thoughtful piece from Kevin Blake in the Irish Field

                          It is a regular source of frustration for many that the analysis of racing is so dictated by results. For some, there is no such thing as a bad winning ride or a good losing ride and this skewed and nonsensical attitude has been heavily evident in the fallout from the recent outings of Long Run.

                          Firstly, it must be said that Sam Waley-Cohen is always likely to attract some degree of criticism no matter how well or otherwise he rides. Being the owner’s son as well as an amateur rider in the truest part-time sense, he represents the easiest of targets when involved in high-profile Grade 1 races against the best riders on the planet.

                          The critics were out in force after Long Run was beaten by Silviniaco Conti on his seasonal reappearance in the Betfair Chase at Haydock. The perception was that Waley-Cohen hadn’t been positive enough and allowed the winner to dictate the pace. However, such analysis failed to take in the bigger picture that Long Run connection’s would have been keen to avoid the hard race that their charge had endured in the 2011 renewal of the race, which was considered a contributing factor in the horse’s subsequently disappointing performances that season. With that in mind, Waley-Cohen’s ride was perfectly satisfactory in terms of tactics and his presentation of the horse to the fences was also adequate. Yet, the critics swooped in mercilessly, driven on by the losing result, rather than the bigger picture.

                          Yet, in the aftermath of Long Run’s success in the King George on Wednesday, the most popular line seemed to be one of redemption for Waley-Cohen. Indeed, the Daily Telegraph went so far as to headline with “Inspired Waley-Cohen ride silences the grandstand jockeys.” Yet, there is no question in my mind that, despite winning, Waley-Cohen’s effort in the King George was far inferior to his effort in the Betfair Chase. He was wrong at quite a few of the fences, notably so at the fifth-last and final fences, and failed to correct his mount’s tendency to edge to his left in the straight. All told, it was to the horse’s credit that he rallied strongly enough to lead in the dying strides.

                          I don’t get any pleasure in having a go at an amateur rider as Sam Waley-Cohen is entitled to ride his family’s horses and the riding arrangements are here to stay, but it is the result-driven analysis that irks. One can’t help but feel that the unfair criticism Waley-Cohen had to endure after Haydock dented his confidence and contributed to his lesser performance at Kempton, so perhaps the somewhat unwarranted praise he has received for his King George exploits will relieve some of the pressure on his shoulders and allow him to ride to the best of his ability in the Gold Cup in March.

                          There is no question that Long Run is a top-class chaser and sets the standard for the Gold Cup, but there is also little remaining doubt that he isn’t as good as he seemed to be when beating up a declining Denman and an out-of-sorts Kauto Star in the Gold Cup in 2011. There are a multitude of very promising second-season chasers that will be snapping at his heels come March and one suspects that at least one will prove too good for Long Run and Waley-Cohen.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Brian O Connor in similar vein

                            On a different topic, the entitlement of those without race-riding experience to criticise those with that precious commodity got a boost on the back of Sam Waley-Cohen’s King George winning ride on Long Run.
                            As per usual, flak directed at the sporting amateur jockey generated defensive responses along tiresomely predictable “how many winners have you ridden” lines.
                            But what’s noticeable has been the readiness of those who actually have ridden winners to dismiss critics of Waley-Cohen’s effort last week as reactionaries talking through their wallets. And they’re entitled to their opinion.
                            But be under no illusion there are plenty racing professionals who think differently, and are coming at it from a completely dispassionate stance.
                            Praising Waley-Cohen for being fit enough, and brave enough, to ride in a big race is all very well, but at this level, it resembles praising a doctor for having a tongue-depresser, or a bin-man a pair of gloves. It’s pretty basic stuff.
                            But there were a number of occasions during the race when the amateur looked very amateurish indeed, delivering only minimal assistance to a horse that clearly needs decisive handling. That was especially obvious at the last.
                            Pointing out the difference between Waley-Cohen’s effort against the top professionals doesn’t constitute a campaign to get the guy off Long Run in the Gold Cup. And by definition anyone betting on the horse takes the jockey’s limitations into account.
                            But to argue that Waley-Cohen stuck a metaphorical two-fingers up to his critics, and made criticism redundant, is bogus, and illustrative of how ex-jockeys are sometimes reluctant to vacate the insider tent and join us lesser mortals outside once their riding days are over.
                            And that’s no use to anyone.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              He's come out of it (the King George) better than he did after the Haydock race and he's in very good form.

                              "We have to decide if we are going to run before the Gold Cup or go straight there.

                              "A lot will depend on what the weather is like and what the ground is like.

                              "The possibility is the Denman Chase at Newbury, which is the race he won last year, but we may just skip all that and go straight to Cheltenham."

                              Comment

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