If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
Is BoF still logged in ?
Has Peter said anything about Peregrine Run ?
Remember the plunge last year for the Coral Cup, you mentioned him at 33/1 and he got backed into fav on the day I think...
Is BoF still logged in ?
Has Peter said anything about Peregrine Run ?
Remember the plunge last year for the Coral Cup, you mentioned him at 33/1 and he got backed into fav on the day I think...
Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running
Is BoF still logged in ?
Has Peter said anything about Peregrine Run ?
Remember the plunge last year for the Coral Cup, you mentioned him at 33/1 and he got backed into fav on the day I think...
I backed him at a big price. Was there any excuse because the performance was average at best? Took the shortest route and didn't really finish up the hill. The horse I mentioned, Conrad Hastings, has a similar form chance and has had a prep run. They would both prefer better ground but at least Conrad hasn't disappointed at the Festival.
Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running
Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running
Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running
Hammered indeed... Mine Now will do very well to beat Glenloe again on these revised terms!
Does anyone like Kalondra in this? (Carrying joint top weight of 11 10)
In December, over the all important Course and Distance, Kalondra carried 5lbs more than Movewiththetimes(10/1 best price for this race) and carried 5lbs more than Coo Star Sivola (who is 14/1 3rd fav for Ultima)
and beat them 3.75L and 5.25L respectively
When they meet up again, Movewiththetimes will carry 11 07 which gives him 3lbs back... however that he needs to find another 2lbs AND then catch up 5.25L.
MWTT is 10/1 best priced whereas you can get...
16/1 for Kalondra - looks a good bet to me compared to MWTT, and good bet overall. He has 4 Good to Soft wins in his career, so the likely ground will suit, he's likely to have Noel Fehily on board... who is an excellent rider and I really, really like his chances now that I've had a look through some of the runners.
Last edited by Kevloaf; 28 February 2018, 09:15 PM.
Not really a race I had put much effort into until today, and I was really surprised to see De Plotting Shed a sea of blue on Oddschecker if I am honest.
It can only be the Elliott factor and that he may look like a plot horse, because not only is he a maiden over fences, and going by Gaultstats maidens have a 30% win rate over the past 10 runnings of the race, not very high for a 6/1 shot in a tough handicap, but he also hasn't won for nearly 18 months, admittedly within that time he has run in some fairly hot races, it would still be a worry for me.
I think Drumcliff could possibly bounce back for the step up in trip, and Rather Be could be anything, having never raced over fences over this distance, but he has looked very good when winning 2 of his 3 runs over shorter to date.
They would be my 2 for now, though there is one I want to look into tomorrow that is of big interest, at early viewing anyway, and once I'm on I shall reveal that one, though someone may have already mentioned him at some point on this thread too.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 1 March 2018, 06:07 AM.
Does anyone like Kalondra in this? (Carrying joint top weight of 11 10)
In December, over the all important Course and Distance, Kalondra carried 5lbs more than Movewiththetimes(10/1 best price for this race) and carried 5lbs more than Coo Star Sivola (who is 14/1 3rd fav for Ultima)
and beat them 3.75L and 5.25L respectively
When they meet up again, Movewiththetimes will carry 11 07 which gives him 3lbs back... however that he needs to find another 2lbs AND then catch up 5.25L.
MWTT is 10/1 best priced whereas you can get...
16/1 for Kalondra - looks a good bet to me compared to MWTT, and good bet overall. He has 4 Good to Soft wins in his career, so the likely ground will suit, he's likely to have Noel Fehily on board... who is an excellent rider and I really, really like his chances now that I've had a look through some of the runners.
Does anyone like Kalondra in this? (Carrying joint top weight of 11 10)
In December, over the all important Course and Distance, Kalondra carried 5lbs more than Movewiththetimes(10/1 best price for this race) and carried 5lbs more than Coo Star Sivola (who is 14/1 3rd fav for Ultima)
and beat them 3.75L and 5.25L respectively
When they meet up again, Movewiththetimes will carry 11 07 which gives him 3lbs back... however that he needs to find another 2lbs AND then catch up 5.25L.
MWTT is 10/1 best priced whereas you can get...
16/1 for Kalondra - looks a good bet to me compared to MWTT, and good bet overall. He has 4 Good to Soft wins in his career, so the likely ground will suit, he's likely to have Noel Fehily on board... who is an excellent rider and I really, really like his chances now that I've had a look through some of the runners.
I put it up a little while ago on the ante-post thread with the explanation. It got dropped a couple a pounds which made this race an obvious target and the trainer confirmed. I still like my other one just as much at twice the price.
I put it up a little while ago on the ante-post thread with the explanation. It got dropped a couple a pounds which made this race an obvious target and the trainer confirmed. I still like my other one just as much at twice the price.
Great minds? Fools seldom....
Too much "summer action" for Conrad Hastings? HOWEVER that contradicts the fact I've backed Peregrine Run for this and Rathvinden in the 4 miler and he split them when they met over summer...
Too much "summer action" for Conrad Hastings? HOWEVER that contradicts the fact I've backed Peregrine Run for this and Rathvinden in the 4 miler and he split them when they met over summer...
I'll have another look at CH tomorrow.
Worth a look at that last run given conditions were completely against and he was returning after an absence. Surprisingly, no movement in price yet. The negative would be the ground being softer than ideal on the first day but that would also impact on Kalondra.
Not really a race I had put much effort into until today, and I was really surprised to see De Plotting Shed a sea of blue on Oddschecker if I am honest.
It can only be the Elliott factor and that he may look like a plot horse, because not only is he a maiden over fences, and going by Gaultstats maidens have a 30% win rate over the past 10 runnings of the race, not very high for a 6/1 shot in a tough handicap, but he also hasn't won for nearly 18 months, admittedly within that time he has run in some fairly hot races, it would still be a worry for me.
I think Drumcliff could possibly bounce back for the step up in trip, and Rather Be could be anything, having never raced over fences over this distance, but he has looked very good when winning 2 of his 3 runs over shorter to date.
They would be my 2 for now, though there is one I want to look into tomorrow that is of big interest, at early viewing anyway, and once I'm on I shall reveal that one, though someone may have already mentioned him at some point on this thread too.
OK, so I spent a good few hours on this race last night, as noted some of my thoughts above, I know many on here have probably spent longer than I have on it, so please, shoot me down if there are negatives regarding this one.
I have already played Rather Be & Drumcliff for this but I have just added what I consider to be my main bet for this race now in Mount Mews, he is 16/1 NRNB and I have had myself some of that this morning.
He was a very highly rated and highly tried hurdler and this season he started back out over hurdles, which in hindsight was probably more for race fitness than anything else, as he looked considerably slower than last season. He then took to fences and won his maiden over 1f short of this race trip, but stayed on well to the line. Since that maiden win he has contested 2 races over 3m and these were solid enough runs without actually looking like he could stay the 3m, despite one of the runs only being a neck defeat.
My main worry with MM is if he will actually get in, I think he is number 32 on the weights list, but only 20 run in this race.
As far as ground concerns go, he has none, he has won on all types, he has only finished once outside of the top 3, albeit one of the races he finished 3rd of 4. He travels well enough that a strong festival pace will likely suit and I don't see the 2m 4f as much of a problem for him as 3m is, so will be sure he can see a race of this distance out.
The same owner also has Testify pitched in the same race, who will carry top weight along with a few others at this rate, so I'm not sure if Mount Mews will actually run, has anyone seen any plans for him? I notice he is entered in 4 races for the festival and I will discount the RSA straight away, as he has loads to do to catch up with Black Corton, let alone anything else in the field, but unsure on the rest of the races, surely won't go back over hurdles? Which would leave this or the JLT I guess.
Apologies if someone has already made a case for him, there are so many contributors on here now (which is great) that I barely manage to keep up with everyones posts and likely have duplicated a few myself!
Leading Close Brothers Novices' Handicap Chase fancy De Plotting Shed has been nominated by the BHA handicapping team as their highest-profile 'headache horse'.
Gordon Elliott's eight-year-old, who is also entered for the Ultima, the Brown Advisory and two of the Grade 1 novices, is a top-priced 8-1 chance for the race that is anticipated to be his festival target and, after consultation with the Irish handicapper Andrew Shaw, he has been left on his last published Irish mark.
He will race therefore off 143, which is 2lb lower than the Close Brothers' new ceiling mark, yet he has a much higher rating over hurdles and the handicappers admit he could have got in lightly.
The BHA's Mark Olley said: "De Plotting Shed was definitely a hard one. He was a 150-rated hurdler, fourth in Punchestown's Stayers' Hurdle on decent ground, and all four of his chases have been on soft or heavy ground, the last two of them at around two miles.
"I just think that back up to two and a half miles and on better ground we will see a different horse to the one we've seen trailing around over two miles in the mud."
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment