Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

[Kevloaf]

My 'concern' about Gold Present is a little bit hard to qualify with evidence, its more a feeling ... that because he's gone off write well fancied and tipped on every run this season he's too exposed. Or, shorter than he should be. He's a house that's likely to be a 'sexy tip'?

I feel he's never been a price that's genuinly good value ... his anticipated form is already a factor?

Not ruling hum out whatsoever because I've got no proper opinion formed yet, I'm just inclined to be against him at this stage.... happy to be proven wrong though while he's the price he is...

[Robbante]

My 'concern' about Gold Present is a little bit hard to qualify with evidence, its more a feeling ... that because he's gone off write well fancied and tipped on every run this season he's too exposed. Or, shorter than he should be. He's a house that's likely to be a 'sexy tip'?

I feel he's never been a price that's genuinly good value ... his anticipated form is already a factor?

Not ruling hum out whatsoever because I've got no proper opinion formed yet, I'm just inclined to be against him at this stage.... happy to be proven wrong though while he's the price he is...

Get what you’re saying, but he’s beaten a lot of the horses towards the top of the ultima market with plenty in hand. I’d have to have him onside come the day, and he’s not going to be 14/1, so a no brainer for me nrnb

[Kevloaf]

Get what you’re saying, but he’s beaten a lot of the horses towards the top of the ultima market with plenty in hand. I’d have to have him onside come the day, and he’s not going to be 14/1, so a no brainer for me nrnb

Most of those would be weighted to reverse the form though?

I have no proof, but this far out of be wanting a different form line to consider.

He'd half in price at absolute best? Which might be value
.... But at 7/1 he might not be a great bet on the day.

I'll keep an open mind and look at this tomorrow though Rob

[Faugheen_Machine]

My 'concern' about Gold Present is a little bit hard to qualify with evidence, its more a feeling ... that because he's gone off write well fancied and tipped on every run this season he's too exposed. Or, shorter than he should be. He's a house that's likely to be a 'sexy tip'?

I feel he's never been a price that's genuinly good value ... his anticipated form is already a factor?

Not ruling hum out whatsoever because I've got no proper opinion formed yet, I'm just inclined to be against him at this stage.... happy to be proven wrong though while he's the price he is...

I don't he was been well fancied on either of this season's runs. At Newbury he was friendless in the betting and drifted from 9/2 to 13/2. LTO he went off at 8/1 having been around that price all morning. I'd say they were very fair prices for a horse who ran well in the spring festivals.

To my mind, seven barrows didn't think he'd win first time out (perhaps he needed the run) but he surprised them. The step up to 3m improved him again lto and although he has gone up in the weights he could still be improving and ahead of his mark.

I agree that he may be well touted ahead of the festival but I just feel that what we've seen so far isn't the ceiling of his ability.

[Liammet]

I like Gold Present but feel his handicap mark is now too high
There has not been a horse in over 30 years to have won this race with a mark of over 150
12 of the last 15 winners have carried less than 11 stone
He is entered in the listed sky bet chase next week
Whether he wins or not they may be forced down the Ryanair route
Where he has an each Way squeak at 20/1 nrnb in a race that will cut up

[Faugheen_Machine]

UTPT won this off 155 last season. Same rating at GP.

[Robbante]

I would want GP covered as think he has the potential to put in a better performance again come March. The other horse i like for this race currently is Robinsfirth (for all the reasons as stated by Jono earlier on in the thread). Off a great mark, has a real bit of class about him, and again is one with the potential to improve. Am sure Singlefarmpayment will be up there again off his mark too, but would hope that one of those two are more progressive

[Toffees]

UTPT won this off 155 last season. Same rating at GP.

I would want GP covered as think he has the potential to put in a better performance again come March. The other horse i like for this race currently is Robinsfirth (for all the reasons as stated by Jono earlier on in the thread). Off a great mark, has a real bit of class about him, and again is one with the potential to improve. Am sure Singlefarmpayment will be up there again off his mark too, but would hope that one of those two are more progressive

Gold Present has a mark of 155 now. If he wins the Sky Bet Chase by a length or two, what does he go to? 157?

His jumping won in for him first time out in my opinion, although he did jump right at a couple of open ditches. In Ascot then Gold Present and Frodon went off at a quick gallop for the first circuit. They went slower than the Novice chase over three miles on the last circuit. But the way he found more at the straight was impressive, and then his jump at the last!

Singlefarm is turning into a serious cliff horse for me now. Been given far too much to do so far this season. More confident on him turning up though.
Prices fair but stingy at the moment haha

This is turning into a classier race though. In 2016, the first 5 home carried 11-5 +

[Liammet]

UTPT won this off 155 last season. Same rating at GP.

Sorry,was getting this race mixed up
Might well win but I prefer picking a horse in cheltenham handicaps where there looks to be a plot to keep the mark down
Good luck if anyone is on though particularly at big prices

[Istabraq]

Gold Present has a mark of 155 now. If he wins the Sky Bet Chase by a length or two, what does he go to? 157?

I think any sort of win in a valuable handicap like that will see his rating very close to, if not beyond, 160.

I agree this is becoming a classy race, almost a Gold Cup trial, but as with most handicaps there's very likely one or more horses who have been running over wrong distances on wrong ground at wrong courses and are therefore a stone better than their official rating so topweights are always going to be vulnerable.
Last year was a tremendous effort from UTPT

This remains one of the few true handicaps where top to bottom is a significant weight difference, the nov chase later in the day (last race) is a joke, the last 2 years there's been no more than a few lb between the lot.

[ComplyOrDie]

Before I go chucking Pts at Singlefarmpayment for this race has there been any negative news regarding the horse when I was away?

10/1 NRNB for a horse that loves Cheltenham and has placed festival form is enough for me to want to get involved, so opinions welcome!

The other one I like is Beware The Bear, only once out of the placings over this sort of trip, still lightly raced for his age and possibly a reason why Nicky is keeping Gold Present in the betting, to hold the price of this one (of course this is a weak argument, but something I like to keep an eye on), 20/1 NRNB is good enough for me too!

[Viking Flagship]

I don’t think you’ve missed anything mate, and he’s a horse I’ve followed fairly closely. Entered up this weekend which suggests all is fine. He could screw his mark though if they go for the Cotswold and run well. On the other hand if he bombs out against a tough field of graded performers that wouldn’t exactly be the ideal prep for a big festival handicap. I’m surprised they’re not preserving his mark for this and then perhaps onto the National – maybe he needs keeping busy, was given a prep for the Hennessy when many go straight there. I’m more tempted by the 14s with Hills concession than the 10s NRNB (only risk is that he takes in the Gold Cup but that surely only happens in the very unlikely event he goes and wins the Cotswold!). I’m feeling more inclined to see what this weekend brings before getting involved. If he misses this weekend altogether I’ll be even more tempted to take that 14s.

Beware the Bear is a right monkey and that would worry me for a big Cheltenham handicap. Liable to lose interest halfway through and that is usually enough to end your chances in a race like this. Looks more like a Scottish National horse to my eyes.

[Toffees]

I don’t think you’ve missed anything mate, and he’s a horse I’ve followed fairly closely. Entered up this weekend which suggests all is fine. He could screw his mark though if they go for the Cotswold and run well. On the other hand if he bombs out against a tough field of graded performers that wouldn’t exactly be the ideal prep for a big festival handicap. I’m surprised they’re not preserving his mark for this and then perhaps onto the National – maybe he needs keeping busy, was given a prep for the Hennessy when many go straight there. I’m more tempted by the 14s with Hills concession than the 10s NRNB (only risk is that he takes in the Gold Cup but that surely only happens in the very unlikely event he goes and wins the Cotswold!). I’m feeling more inclined to see what this weekend brings before getting involved. If he misses this weekend altogether I’ll be even more tempted to take that 14s.

Beware the Bear is a right monkey and that would worry me for a big Cheltenham handicap. Liable to lose interest halfway through and that is usually enough to end your chances in a race like this. Looks more like a Scottish National horse to my eyes.

He is also a cliff horse for me. Interesting what Tom George said though:

"Unfortunately, he fell in the Trophy and ran only OK at Ascot last time. I think we need to change tactics with him...He's very similar to Double Shuffle in that as a young horse you had to drop him out and teach him to settle, but now he does settle I think we can be more positive on him."

PaddyPower paying 3 places for 40/1 for the Cotswolds. And someone had a nibble at the Gold Cup market in the last couple of days. Not saying he'd be good enough to win a Gold Cup but owners might be tempted by prize money in place markets rather than the prize money they've got in the last year.

[Viking Flagship]

That's really interesting as I was literally thinking about Double Shuffle as I wrote my post, but more in the sense that Tom George now has a Gold Cup candidate which makes SFP taking this route even less likely (albeit different owners). Those comments suggest they might test the water this weekend in the Cotswold which would actually give even more reason to hanging fire on SFP bets for the Ultima... if he runs well this weekend they'll go for Gold, if he doesn't run well then they'll go for this race but highly unlikely to shorten in the betting and may in fact drift a couple of points. Then you can make your own judgement as to how decent a prep it was for this race.

[Middle_Of_March]

That's really interesting as I was literally thinking about Double Shuffle as I wrote my post, but more in the sense that Tom George now has a Gold Cup candidate which makes SFP taking this route even less likely (albeit different owners). Those comments suggest they might test the water this weekend in the Cotswold which would actually give even more reason to hanging fire on SFP bets for the Ultima... if he runs well this weekend they'll go for Gold, if he doesn't run well then they'll go for this race but highly unlikely to shorten in the betting and may in fact drift a couple of points. Then you can make your own judgement as to how decent a prep it was for this race.

According to someone who knows the trainer, double shuffle isn’t goinf to run at Cheltenham. So I heard the other day somewhere.


Can’t rememebr for the life of me where I heard that though so don’t quote me on it.