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  1. #1
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 2018

    I've noticed this evening that PP have some prices up for the race.... 4 places, 1/4 the odds at least...

    https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenh...p-chase/winner

    16/1 - Singlefarmpayment
    20/1 - Go Conquer
    20/1 - Beware The Bear
    20/1 - Polidam
    20/1 - Un Temp Pour Tout

    Too early to get too in depth here but whilst at Newbury as soon as Singlefarmpayment fell I turned to jono and said that it won't do his handicap mark any harm and they might well aim him back at the Ultima.

    Turns out, that was pretty opbvious rather than clever... as 16/1 standout fav suggests.

    He'll be a higher weight than when just touched off by Un Temp Pour Tout last season but IMO will have improved to more than factor that in this season... I don't think it is worth taking the price now.... maybe hope another bookie go out on a limb and offer 25/1! I'm sure someone will offer 20/1 though.

    Quick note on the others, Beware The Bear was a huge market mover in the 4 miler last season before disappointing, but has looked impressive and a future GN contender of the future, so I can see why he is up there. Go Conquer was 5th in it last year, and previous runners don't have a bad record (that 'stat' off the top of my head, will check another time).
    Mullins has Polidam, Acapella Borgious, Pleasant Company and Total Recall listed, of which I anticipate none of them running.

    A Genie In Abottle 33/1 interesting
    Mall Dini - Davy Russell perhaps?
    Squouateur

    I'll do some more work on this nearer the time but anyone got any early fancies that are more creative than my Singlefarmpayment then feel free
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 12-12-2017 at 10:30 PM. Reason: title

  2. #2
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    I would want last years 1st and 2nd on side.

    That's as inspiring as it gets from me at this stage....

  3. #3
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    Amiable fly / frodon the only horses id thought of for this race. Both could do with going down a little in the handicap.
    Last edited by Scooby91; 01-31-2018 at 09:07 PM.

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    I think UTPT goes GC this year

  5. #5
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooby91 View Post
    Amiable fly / frodon the only horses id thought of for this race. Both could do with going down a little in the handicap.
    Aniable Fly certainly won't be going down in the handicap now...hope you were on him for the Paddy Power Chase though Scooby?

    Singlefarmpayment is one I do like. He is starting to become a "nearly horse" but I still think there is a big race in him and everything would suggest it will be at Cheltenham. He was 5/1 favourite for a Handicap Chase at Ascot recently but was never involved and could only finish 5th. His jumping wasn't quite up to scratch but he got a strange ride. Perhaps he is being instructed to do so but I think Heskin is over doing the hold up tactics on the horse and giving him far too much to do, plus the fact he was ridden very wide from about 5 out. He has done well being held up of course but his Ultima 2nd and arguably his best run had him start of in mid division rather than the rear so he didn't quite have so much to make up to get involved. I'd like to see Heskin use those tactics once again.

    Like you say Kev, nothing creative but that Ascot run means he's being dropped another 2lb so he would be just 3lbs higher than his Ultima 2nd

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by jono View Post
    Aniable Fly certainly won't be going down in the handicap now...hope you were on him for the Paddy Power Chase though Scooby?

    Singlefarmpayment is one I do like. He is starting to become a "nearly horse" but I still think there is a big race in him and everything would suggest it will be at Cheltenham. He was 5/1 favourite for a Handicap Chase at Ascot recently but was never involved and could only finish 5th. His jumping wasn't quite up to scratch but he got a strange ride. Perhaps he is being instructed to do so but I think Heskin is over doing the hold up tactics on the horse and giving him far too much to do, plus the fact he was ridden very wide from about 5 out. He has done well being held up of course but his Ultima 2nd and arguably his best run had him start of in mid division rather than the rear so he didn't quite have so much to make up to get involved. I'd like to see Heskin use those tactics once again.

    Like you say Kev, nothing creative but that Ascot run means he's being dropped another 2lb so he would be just 3lbs higher than his Ultima 2nd
    I diddnt back him I'm afraid .
    I don't bet on any handicaps before the spring festivals.

  7. #7
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Another I quite like this far out is Robinsfirth at 25/1

    Similar to SFP he has done a lot of his racing at Cheltenham. Injury problems have limited his starts over the years but Tizzard looks to have had a clear run with the horse this year. He was 5/1 favourite in the same race SFP ran in on his seasonal opener at Cheltenham in October. He made a mistake mid race but kept on well and stayed up the hill to place in 4th. That was his first run since January 2017 so it was a respectable comeback after a long layoff. Next time out he again started favourite and came second to Chase The Spud who he was giving 3lbs. He finally got his head in front on his third run of the year at the International meeting beating the well fancied Wotzizname (who was never involved) and Southfield Theatre. That took his Cheltenham form figures to 2441.

    Despite turning 9 in a few days time his injury issues mean he has had few starts in his career - only 11 in total and 6 over fences so quite lightly raced and imo has more progression to come.

    Some quotes from stable tours this season:

    We are going to go to the first Cheltenham with him and hopefully if he is good enough he will probably have a Ladbrokes Trophy entry. We have always thought a lot of him but he’s a bit fragile and is very good at home.

    Not the easiest to train, but he is a very good horse on his day. I would like to give him one run and then aim him at the Ladbrokes Gold Cup at Newbury. If we can get a clear run with him, he is capable of winning a big race because he possesses a hell of an engine.
    A huge horse, it is amazing he managed to win a bumper first time our as a four year old
    Tizzard has also wanted to run the horse in both the Welsh National and the Grand National but the owners have declined. The fact Tizzard has highlighted these races, plus the Ladbroke Gold Cup (no reason why he didn't run, perhaps owners again declined?) suggest to me there could be bigger ambitions for the horse. The Nationals were ruled out because the horse is "too precious and the trips too far" but if he was to target any race in the Spring this to me would look likely. Rated 148 after that win so the Kim Muir is out of the question so I can only see this race being an option at the festival.

    Would fit plenty of trends for this race and shown a good level of consistency (1412421U421). He ran in a hurdles race at the track at the Trails meeting in 2015, a race that also featured Thistlecrack and Native River. A LOT has obviously happened since that day and i'm not saying he will match the achievements of them but he was the stable 1st choice that day (started 7/1, thistlecrack 25/1, native river 16/1) and I remember Paul Ferguson picking Robinsfirth out as the pick of the trio the following season.

    A huge horse - it's been suggested he may be best on soft ground (again Paul Ferguson has this view) however his seasonal debut (4th behind SFP) was on Good (good - to - soft in places) - ground you would expect on day one at the festival.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I added Singlefarmpayment at 22/1 any race (boost) with WH earlier in the week BTW..... best price is 16/1 for this race....for anyone interested in handicaps at this stage. Certainly think off 3lbs higher than last years 2nd that puts him bang in the mix. UTPT was a bit of a freak last season IMO and he beat the others well enough.

    Very much like the Robinsfirth case jono. With him being fragile I won't add him now, and not a sexy profile in particular so I'd hope for 20/1+ when NRNB comes out? maybe thats ambitious, can't actually remember when NRNB appears.

    Would AMERICAN go for this race? 33/1, obviously wants soft but at best it'l be good to soft as they'd water...

  9. #9
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    Kev,
    Would you be a little worried about SFP form this season. He doesn't look the same horse so I'll be looking elsewhere for the winner of this race.

  10. #10
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by doctorwu View Post
    Kev,
    Would you be a little worried about SFP form this season. He doesn't look the same horse so I'll be looking elsewhere for the winner of this race.
    Not overly, I think they're quite happy to see his mark dropping now with a view to the spring.

    I'm sure I'll fancy plenty of others between now and the start of the race though!

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