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Nicky Henderson Stable Tour

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  • 2017 team

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    • Originally posted by Super Bobs View Post
      This is an old quote from Nick Mordin ( November 2012)

      this regard it's worth noting that Long Run's trainer Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record with young, lightly raced chasers in top races. Since 1996 his chasers with eight or fewer previous starts over fences have won nine times out of 91 in Grade 1 chases. Those with more than eight previous chase runs have scored only three times out of 37.

      Two of those three wins were in the BMW Chase at the Punchestown Festival at a time when it was basically a bogus Grade 1 (neither winner ever won another Grade 1 or earned an official or Racing Post rating above 157). The third win was in the so-called 'replacement Gold Cup' run at Sandown during the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001. This was another bogus Grade 1 won by Henderson's Marlborough. The short head runner up was a 149 rated 12yo that lost all 23 pattern races he contested. The third had an official rating of only 145 and never won a pattern race in seven tries.

      Henderson has been training since 1978 and started out with a top class string. But in his entire career the only horse I can trace that he trained to win a Grade 1 chase after more than nine previous chase starts was Remittance Man who took the Mumm Melling Chase after ten previous chase starts. However Remittance Man only beat three rivals that day, the most fancied of which fell. The runner up was a horse that never won a race worth 5000 or more and Remittance Man earned a Racing Post rating of only 145 for his win.

      What the stats suggest is that when one of Henderson's top chasers has racked up more than eight or nine previous chase starts you should start looking for signs of deterioration. Long Run has now had fifteen previous starts over fences. He's lost all four times he's run in Grade 1 chases since he's had more than eight previous chase starts.

      Thought I would look at how things have panned out since for a few of the Stable Stars:

      Bobs Worth

      First 8 Chases Novice season 1321 2nd season 11 Third Season 61

      Since then Third season cont 5 Fourth season 8

      Given that he improved during his novice year it might be a bit early to write him off but Mordin theory hold up so far.

      Riverside Theatre

      Some support for Mordin here:

      First 9 Chases 1115F121
      Second 8 chases 11P6461U
      Third 69

      Sprinter Sacre

      First 8 11111111
      Since 11P

      ?

      Captain Conan

      Hasnt got to 8 yet?

      111513P

      Worth watching over next few months I think.
      Looking at Might Bite today I thought of this

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      • I wonder if that stat / trend ?, would apply to Other Trainers O.V ??. Maybe suggest's that horses have a
        Certain amount of time at the top , Archie mentioned something like this .
        Each race taking so much out of the tank .

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        • Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
          I wonder if that stat / trend ?, would apply to Other Trainers O.V ??. Maybe suggest's that horses have a
          Certain amount of time at the top , Archie mentioned something like this .
          Each race taking so much out of the tank .
          A very fair point BC. I read something lately that you should never consider any stat without a wider comparative. So really you should be comparing Hendersons win % after 9 chases to all horses after 9 chase starts. I think at the time of Mordins original quote there was probably a feeling that Nicholls chasers had a longer shelf life and there was definitely a time when Nicholls managed to keep horses coming back year after year. The Sprinter Sacre revival also works against the original stat.

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