Coral Cup 2018

[Kevloaf]

Young unexposed novices do tend to win most of the handicap hurdles throughout the season it seems without going in to the details...

[Istabraq]

Young unexposed novices do tend to win most of the handicap hurdles throughout the season it seems without going in to the details...

Yep agreed, but there's an increased need for 'hidden ability' when the racing is so competitive...

[BigChaang]

I backed Aux Ptit Soins in this but my previous success was Whats up Boys (before foot and mouth) so not sure what help I can be, but two interesting trends have developed in the race, horses who have only ever won a single handicap have dominated as have last time out winners, so young, improving, unexposed novices should be the focus...

William henry ??

[ComplyOrDie]

I notice Willie has left Let's Dance in for this race and given he now has both BDD & VVM for the Mares' any chance she could come here instead of that race?

Willie also has Bleu Et Rouge entered, who had a tough race LTO, but could be used to keep the weights pretty much as they are.

Same connections also have Max Dynamite & Karalee entered, but I suspect MD will go for the County Hurdle, and Karalee has been woefully out of form so I'd be surprised if she will even make the trip over.

On form Let's Dance must go with a fair chance, she done her best work at the finish at last seasons festival when winning the Mares' Novice (course form), and her best performance to date this season was over 2m 4f in a mares Grade 3 hurdle, where she travelled well. At first guess I'd say she doesn't see out the 3m trip yet, this based on her one and only performance over 3m so far which ended in defeat but was travelling well enough 3f from home, despite having a small barging match with Diamond Cauchois prior to that, and she was eased considerably once defeat was guaranteed.

Thoughts?

[Robbante]

I notice Willie has left Let's Dance in for this race and given he now has both BDD & VVM for the Mares' any chance she could come here instead of that race?

Willie also has Bleu Et Rouge entered, who had a tough race LTO, but could be used to keep the weights pretty much as they are.

Same connections also have Max Dynamite & Karalee entered, but I suspect MD will go for the County Hurdle, and Karalee has been woefully out of form so I'd be surprised if she will even make the trip over.

On form Let's Dance must go with a fair chance, she done her best work at the finish at last seasons festival when winning the Mares' Novice (course form), and her best performance to date this season was over 2m 4f in a mares Grade 3 hurdle, where she travelled well. At first guess I'd say she doesn't see out the 3m trip yet, this based on her one and only performance over 3m so far which ended in defeat but was travelling well enough 3f from home, despite having a small barging match with Diamond Cauchois prior to that, and she was eased considerably once defeat was guaranteed.

Thoughts?

I think she’ll run in this which is half the battle. Benie Des Dieux will be in the Mares and would think it unlikely for Ricci to put two up against Apples Jade

[Scooby91]

I think she’ll run in this which is half the battle. Benie Des Dieux will be in the Mares and would think it unlikely for Ricci to put two up against Apples Jade

There already is 2 up against her vvm and benie des dieux.
Let's dance goes mares or stayers according to Willie. But an entry here means it's a possibility

[Robbante]

There already is 2 up against her vvm and benie des dieux.
Let's dance goes mares or stayers according to Willie. But an entry here means it's a possibility

Valid point! Forgot about VVM. Give let’s dance way more chance in a coral cup than stayers. Already have her backed bizarrely for the stayers from earlier in the season

[Kevloaf]

Let's Dance wouldn't be for me but if she bounced back to her best which is feasible at Cheltenham she would be 'interesting'. I don't give her a chance in the mares or the stayers though.

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone know why Nicky Henderson's assistant trainer put up Stowaway Magic as a bet in the Coral Cup?

OR 140, so would have a nice low weight, but I can't see why or where any improvement would come from?

Never been to Cheltenham before either?

[Quevega]

Does anyone know why Nicky Henderson's assistant trainer put up Stowaway Magic as a bet in the Coral Cup?

OR 140, so would have a nice low weight, but I can't see why or where any improvement would come from?

Never been to Cheltenham before either?

No, I saw him mention that last week and looked into it, he didn't give any reasoning. I watched it's last run and couldn't quite see it, especially as they have the favorite for this race already.

[Folski]

Just did my deep dive on this race, amazingly 3 of the last 4 winners changed trainer that season.

Son Of Flicka is the only winner not to win a race the season they won this in the last 16 years, who was a real trends buster being the only horse in the last 8 years to win more than 1 handicap and not win that season.

Only one novice winner ever back in 2000.

6 of last 7 won over 2m4f - APS 1st start at the distance.

You also need a horse who has run well on it's last handicap start, that being said APS won on 4th start having not run in a handicap or over 2m4f.

Horses who meet the criteria

William Henry
Top Of The Game - PN has said will only go if soft
Meri Devie
Delta Work - Q for the pertemps and would imagine he goes there.
Spiritofthegames - feel like he's a better horse on soft ground.
Brilliare Momento - Several other entries
Hunters Call - looks like he goes County
Azerti
Oscar Knight - entered in Irish National and I think it's very much the aim, might not get in.

Sandsend (& to a lesser extent Dolciano Dici) has a very similar profile to Aux Ptit Soins but 6lb higher, think he might go in the County.

4 of the last 5 winners were between 148 - 153 rating, taking that into account my money I think William Henry is probably the bet in this.

Henderson won this with a claiming jockey (NDB) for the same connections and hopefully James Bowen can follow in the same footsteps.


Sire Du Berlais & Burbank don't have a win but I could see them running big races.

[Bigfish]

Cheers Folski . I will now study the race taking all of your work into consideration. Nice one.

[Kevloaf]

Just did my deep dive on this race, amazingly 3 of the last 4 winners changed trainer that season.

Son Of Flicka is the only winner not to win a race the season they won this in the last 16 years, who was a real trends buster being the only horse in the last 8 years to win more than 1 handicap and not win that season.

Only one novice winner ever back in 2000.

6 of last 7 won over 2m4f - APS 1st start at the distance.

You also need a horse who has run well on it's last handicap start, that being said APS won on 4th start having not run in a handicap or over 2m4f.

Horses who meet the criteria

William Henry
Top Of The Game - PN has said will only go if soft
Meri Devie
Delta Work - Q for the pertemps and would imagine he goes there.
Spiritofthegames - feel like he's a better horse on soft ground.
Brilliare Momento - Several other entries
Hunters Call - looks like he goes County
Azerti
Oscar Knight - entered in Irish National and I think it's very much the aim, might not get in.

Sandsend (& to a lesser extent Dolciano Dici) has a very similar profile to Aux Ptit Soins but 6lb higher, think he might go in the County.

4 of the last 5 winners were between 148 - 153 rating, taking that into account my money I think William Henry is probably the bet in this.

Henderson won this with a claiming jockey (NDB) for the same connections and hopefully James Bowen can follow in the same footsteps.


Sire Du Berlais & Burbank don't have a win but I could see them running big races.

Interesting that novices don't have a good record in this race. That doesn't marry up with the general season.

Why do you think that is?


I've just realised I've never had better than 5th in the Coral Cup.... Scoir Mear last season.

I have to admit I find this by far and away the most difficult handicap of the week... just so many different form lines and types of horses end up here!

Le Breuil 25/1
DDG NRNB 14/1
Ivanovic Gorb NRNB & BArters Hill NRNB on their way back.

Looks like I've got just 1 runner and to be honest, can't see me having a play until the enhanced place offers appear now

[Folski]

Interesting that novices don't have a good record in this race. That doesn't marry up with the general season.

Why do you think that is?


I've just realised I've never had better than 5th in the Coral Cup.... Scoir Mear last season.

I have to admit I find this by far and away the most difficult handicap of the week... just so many different form lines and types of horses end up here!

Le Breuil 25/1
DDG NRNB 14/1
Ivanovic Gorb NRNB & BArters Hill NRNB on their way back.

Looks like I've got just 1 runner and to be honest, can't see me having a play until the enhanced place offers appear now

Regarding the novices lack of experience is a big factor I would imagine. It's a worry for William Henry as well but that last race will stand to him I think.

[Kevloaf]

William Henry hits all these trends from Gaultstats too...

Only two British trained horses older than 9 years have ever been placed
Four of the last five had handicap ratings of at least 148
15 from the last 17 had won no more than one handicap
14 of the last 15 had won a race this season
Only 4 winners this century had previously competed at the Festival
No winner since 2004 had previously won a Graded race

10/1 seems a little short but...

2017 Tomstone 7/2f
2016 Rock the Kasbah 15/2f
2015 Actival 17/2f
2014 Dell arca 8/1f
2013 Pendra 6/1f

will be shorter on the day?