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Mares Hurdle 2018

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  • #16
    Is there any value left in this market? Or does AJ simply turn up and win.. she's never really been a backable price shirt enough since crossing the line last year.. willie and RR have a handful in here and doubt even they know who'll represent them come march.

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    • #17
      A 6/4 winner is still better than a 10/1 loser but outside of multiples I think she’s best left until the day

      It would be interesting to see what a loss over Christmas would do to her price

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by cwright23 View Post
        Is there any value left in this market? Or does AJ simply turn up and win.. she's never really been a backable price shirt enough since crossing the line last year.. willie and RR have a handful in here and doubt even they know who'll represent them come march.
        There still has to be a doubt this is where AJ will end up so if you think she could end up in a championship race there has to be value in others.
        Mullins will enter VVM in half the festival races and decide Sunday evening where she goes, if she does land here and doesn't find AJ lining up next to her she'd have to have a big chance....

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Hurricane fly View Post
          A 6/4 winner is still better than a 10/1 loser but outside of multiples I think she’s best left until the day

          It would be interesting to see what a loss over Christmas would do to her price
          Would depend on the manner I suppose, if she gets outstayed by NC late on, then it'll look like the trip more than anything else... in which case they'd probably leave the price where it was?

          If she is beaten and drifts over 3m for this I'll be interested.

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          • #20
            Apples Jade wins...close the thread

            Banker of the meeting for me. No concerns she goes elsewhere imo.

            I haven't really seen it mentioned elsewhere but the thing that really impresses me with her is her record last year outside her juvenile season. Year after year we talk how hard it is for horses to step up that following year. Yes it maybe made slightly easier running against Mares where the standard isn't so high but it's still relative and she did win the Hatton's Grace against the boys that season. She won 3 grade 1 races in what is an extremely tough year for 4 year olds and came second in another. 7 grade one wins at the age of 5. Second in 2 more. It's unbelievable and she looks better and better every time she runs. And we know the Spring and better ground will bring improvement.

            I have seen a few shouts for Benie des Dieux. Huge hype from the yard for this horse but i'd be amazed if she lined up in a chase at the festival. That could open up them dropping to back to hurdles, like they did with VVM but just because she has looked great on her 2 starts so far, it's her jumping that has been her assest. It's guesswork to say she would be so good over hurdles even before you put her up against AJ. No interest for me.

            Let's Dance is well held on all previous form with AJ. She could have improved but it would need a staggering amount of improvement needed first to close the gap on previous seasons and then the extra that AJ looks to have improved this year. Her extra experience last year played a big role in her wins for me.

            VVM didn't have much between her and AJ when they met last season and had excuses in both runs (weight then wide ride) however it looks like both horses are going in different directions. Whilst Apples Jade is improving run after run, VVM to me probably started showing signs of regression last season. At 9 years old in March it's hard to see how she could improve again so it would take AJ being below par for her to come into play. I could very well be talking nonsense but I always feel that Mares once they start showing signs of regression, especially from around 8-9 years old are hard to get back and best avoided. I can't recall any examples and like I said maybe it's nonsense but i'm sure it's a "thing". It's also sadly an unknown whether she will even make it to the track again following Ricci's update on On The Line a few weeks back. No entries over Christmas, we know they won't rush her or risk her again as she owes them nothing.

            The only Mullins horse I can see possibly posing a threat is Limini. After all she beat AJ before Cheltenham last season convincingly. I'll admit I got carried away with that run and advocated for her to be given a go in the CH but in hindsight it probably wasn't AJ's true running. You only have to go back to Mullins quotes afterwards on his shock and surprise and his constant in his words questioning of "whether AJ ran to form". Unlike VVM she probably does have more to come but AJ has gone on and improved plenty this year.

            It's very hard to write off Willie Mullins such is his record with Mares. Personally I see the race as being:

            1st - Apples Jade
            2nd - Mullins runner
            3rd - ??

            So for me any other play in the race would be for place terms only. The likely Mullins runners are too short for me with this in mind.

            The only horse that makes a little appeal is Kayf Grace 33/1 (1/5 odds)
            She won the Aintree Mares Bumper in 2016 beating the likes of Augusta Kate, Shattered Love and La Bague Au Roi. She then won her novice hurdle before suffering an injury in February which forced her to miss the rest of the season when she was a 10/1 shot for the Mares Novice. Back again this year she was well beat but far too keen on seasonal debut and probably needed the run at Ascot in what was a decent race. I was impressed with her win at Kempton yesterday in the last. A very confident ride she had more in hand than the winning distance suggested and there was 8 lengths ahead of 3rd. Her jumping was what impressed me most. She's always been really well regarded by Henderson. Soft ground might show her at her best though.

            1pt EW at 33/1 would return a 5.6pt profit to place which doesn't jump out at me but interested to see if anyone else likes her?

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              Apple's Jade will be a penalty kick in the Mares Hurdle.

              Thread closed?


              Inevitable chatter about Mullins/Ricci horses to come, and Limini did beat her but what Apple's Jade did in her 5yo season was nothing short of fantastic in hindsight.

              Already on Apple's Jade in some multiples but she is the biggest certainty of the week in this race for me.
              Originally posted by jono View Post
              Apples Jade wins...close the thread

              Banker of the meeting for me. No concerns she goes elsewhere imo.

              I haven't really seen it mentioned elsewhere but the thing that really impresses me with her is her record last year outside her juvenile season. Year after year we talk how hard it is for horses to step up that following year. Yes it maybe made slightly easier running against Mares where the standard isn't so high but it's still relative and she did win the Hatton's Grace against the boys that season. She won 3 grade 1 races in what is an extremely tough year for 4 year olds and came second in another. 7 grade one wins at the age of 5. Second in 2 more. It's unbelievable and she looks better and better every time she runs. And we know the Spring and better ground will bring improvement.
              Completely agree - didn't go into detail in the opening post but that is what seems to be under-played.

              I've watched todays race back and she clearly stays 3m well, as she made caught, passed and was pulling away from Supasundae at the line.

              That said, a 1/2L beating to Supasundae over 3m doesn't put her HEAD AND SHOULDERS above the boys in that division, and I cashed out my 2 pts on Apple's Shakira for the Stayers earlier on today....

              Elliott after the race said - "She'll be against the girls next time in Cheltenham, the mares' race is the plan. She's just five years old and has now won seven Grade Ones."

              He has already said after her win last time the mares is 100% the plan and I just can't see her beaten. Let's Dance's advantage of being a second season novice last year was all very well and good, but Apple's Jade was also in her second season but was in open company and winning open company Grade 1's. Let's Dance goes off 1/2 tomorrow - different league entirely.

              Agree with VVM and Limini - I'd fear Limini the most this season but that fear isn't really fear, i'm actually glad as her price will probably hold around even money for a while and even on the day if we're lucky.

              Comment


              • #22
                If somebody asked the people at Skybet for a price on her NRNB, would we get one? I remember they did the specisl with Faugheen

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                • #23
                  For the sake of a long discussion. I'll put it here but nice performance by let's dance. She went 4/1 In running immediately as soon as they went off with her held up at the back. Which was strange.
                  https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
                  Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
                    For the sake of a long discussion. I'll put it here but nice performance by let's dance. She went 4/1 In running immediately as soon as they went off with her held up at the back. Which was strange.
                    nearly turned the tele off after the first few flights she didn't look like she was at the races, strange race

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                    • #25
                      I was very disappointed by Karalee today

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
                        For the sake of a long discussion. I'll put it here but nice performance by let's dance. She went 4/1 In running immediately as soon as they went off with her held up at the back. Which was strange.
                        Bit of a drifter all morning and at the off ...

                        Would you put her ahead of Limini and/or VVM

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          I'm getting more than a little nervous at the moment about Apple's jade not running here. , I have her in quite a few of my
                          multiples and surely a great bet for this race , but with her winning at 3 miles , I'm concerned
                          that michael o'leary will want her in the stayers , no matter what gordon elliot say's.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
                            I'm getting more than a little nervous at the moment about Apple's jade not running here. , I have her in quite a few of my
                            multiples and surely a great bet for this race , but with her winning at 3 miles , I'm concerned
                            that michael o'leary will want her in the stayers , no matter what gordon elliot say's.
                            I still don't see it. I think O'Leary will be quite happy to win the Mares race again, beating Mullins'/Ricci's horses in the process.

                            It is a penalty kick. I see Lydia Hislop (and a few others) talking up Let's Dance which I find baffling.

                            The 12/1 available with William Hill is tempting from an each-way perspective given all three opponents shorter than her – her two stablemates above and the superior (on this term’s form, at least) Apple’s Jade – would have to turn up and two of them run to their absolute best to knock her out of the frame on what she’s achieved even now. She is a Festival winner already, after all. Let’s take that 12/1, each-way more an essential than a pleasure.

                            They're the same age, Apple's Jade was a better 4yo (ahead of LD at Cheltenhan and 9L ahead at Punchestown). The season after, Let's Dance was still a novice, so used that experience to do well in novice company last year, with the best run being the Mares Novice Hurdle win at Cheltenham. IN THE SAME SEASON Apple's Jade went in to open company and won 3 grade 1's, including the Mares Hurdle. Her form is superior at every single stage of their career!

                            I don't understand why anyone would assume Let's Dance is improving any more than Apple's Jade would be to get anywhere near reversing the 4yo or 5yo form. Even on this years performances, Let's Dance won against Forge Meadow... Apple's Jade has beaten Nichols Canyon et al.

                            10/1 (1/5 odds) advised each way is the best price you can get for Let's Dance. The only positive is that Mullins at the start of the season said that the OLGB Mares race is the plan. Although I'm sure that could change too. With Apple's Jade running, you're getting at best 2 places to aim at... and if she does make it there and place you're in effect putting a bet on at 1/2 for her to place!!!!!

                            £10 e/w at 10/1 - place returns £30. (£20 total stake - £10 profit)

                            One of the worst advised bets I've seen. I don't give LD any chance of beating AJ bar her not running or a fall (no reason to worry about either) and to back a place at 1/2 at this stage is bonkers.

                            ***edit - Just heard Ricci on TalkSport say that Let's Dance could go for the Mares Race or the Stayers. SO the only positive I could find about the target now isn't certain!
                            Last edited by Kevloaf; 1 January 2018, 12:18 PM.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                              ***edit - Just heard Ricci on TalkSport say that Let's Dance could go for the Mares Race or the Stayers. SO the only positive I could find about the target now isn't certain!
                              Listen to Ricci, he'll always steer you right Kev....

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                                Listen to Ricci, he'll always steer you right Kev....
                                In this case I wouldn't even put free bets on the horse, so he can say what he likes

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