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  1. #11
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    Could do a Quevega and mix this with the stayers at Punchestown

  2. #12
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hurricane fly View Post
    Could do a Quevega and mix this with the stayers at Punchestown
    Absolutely. Fortunately she seems to handle her races well so I'm sure she'll be poicking up prize money through the season more than Q ever did.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Al Ferof's Avatar
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    What are the chances of Benie Des Dieux taking in this race?

    If I were Willie I'd be thinking Vroum and Limini are covered by Apples Jade, so they could go left field a bit here.

    If Faugheen doesn't make the festival, could definitely see Limini taking on the boys as Ricci doesn't mind a super sub in the champion.

    Let's Dance is the issue- will they go mares route with her?

    I just don't see them going chasing at Chelts with Benie. They did the same with Vroum didn't they? Start chasing then switch to hurdles?

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Al Ferof View Post
    What are the chances of Benie Des Dieux taking in this race?

    If I were Willie I'd be thinking Vroum and Limini are covered by Apples Jade, so they could go left field a bit here.

    If Faugheen doesn't make the festival, could definitely see Limini taking on the boys as Ricci doesn't mind a super sub in the champion.

    Let's Dance is the issue- will they go mares route with her?

    I just don't see them going chasing at Chelts with Benie. They did the same with Vroum didn't they? Start chasing then switch to hurdles?
    Fairyhouse just after chelt as part of the mares graded chase program.
    Vroum vroum was there biggest earner the year she followed that path.
    Last edited by Scooby91; 12-12-2017 at 09:55 AM.

  5. #15
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooby91 View Post
    Fairyhouse just after chelt as part of the mares graded chase program.
    Vroum vroum was there biggest earner the year she followed that path.
    Benie probably skip chelt ... but if she ran I'd plump for this race .... imagine Ricci will have a better fancied one though in here

  6. #16
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    Is there any value left in this market? Or does AJ simply turn up and win.. she's never really been a backable price shirt enough since crossing the line last year.. willie and RR have a handful in here and doubt even they know who'll represent them come march.

  7. #17
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    A 6/4 winner is still better than a 10/1 loser but outside of multiples I think she’s best left until the day

    It would be interesting to see what a loss over Christmas would do to her price

  8. #18
    Senior Member Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cwright23 View Post
    Is there any value left in this market? Or does AJ simply turn up and win.. she's never really been a backable price shirt enough since crossing the line last year.. willie and RR have a handful in here and doubt even they know who'll represent them come march.
    There still has to be a doubt this is where AJ will end up so if you think she could end up in a championship race there has to be value in others.
    Mullins will enter VVM in half the festival races and decide Sunday evening where she goes, if she does land here and doesn't find AJ lining up next to her she'd have to have a big chance....

  9. #19
    Senior Member Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hurricane fly View Post
    A 6/4 winner is still better than a 10/1 loser but outside of multiples I think she’s best left until the day

    It would be interesting to see what a loss over Christmas would do to her price
    Would depend on the manner I suppose, if she gets outstayed by NC late on, then it'll look like the trip more than anything else... in which case they'd probably leave the price where it was?

    If she is beaten and drifts over 3m for this I'll be interested.

  10. #20
    Senior Member jono's Avatar
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    Apples Jade wins...close the thread

    Banker of the meeting for me. No concerns she goes elsewhere imo.

    I haven't really seen it mentioned elsewhere but the thing that really impresses me with her is her record last year outside her juvenile season. Year after year we talk how hard it is for horses to step up that following year. Yes it maybe made slightly easier running against Mares where the standard isn't so high but it's still relative and she did win the Hatton's Grace against the boys that season. She won 3 grade 1 races in what is an extremely tough year for 4 year olds and came second in another. 7 grade one wins at the age of 5. Second in 2 more. It's unbelievable and she looks better and better every time she runs. And we know the Spring and better ground will bring improvement.

    I have seen a few shouts for Benie des Dieux. Huge hype from the yard for this horse but i'd be amazed if she lined up in a chase at the festival. That could open up them dropping to back to hurdles, like they did with VVM but just because she has looked great on her 2 starts so far, it's her jumping that has been her assest. It's guesswork to say she would be so good over hurdles even before you put her up against AJ. No interest for me.

    Let's Dance is well held on all previous form with AJ. She could have improved but it would need a staggering amount of improvement needed first to close the gap on previous seasons and then the extra that AJ looks to have improved this year. Her extra experience last year played a big role in her wins for me.

    VVM didn't have much between her and AJ when they met last season and had excuses in both runs (weight then wide ride) however it looks like both horses are going in different directions. Whilst Apples Jade is improving run after run, VVM to me probably started showing signs of regression last season. At 9 years old in March it's hard to see how she could improve again so it would take AJ being below par for her to come into play. I could very well be talking nonsense but I always feel that Mares once they start showing signs of regression, especially from around 8-9 years old are hard to get back and best avoided. I can't recall any examples and like I said maybe it's nonsense but i'm sure it's a "thing". It's also sadly an unknown whether she will even make it to the track again following Ricci's update on On The Line a few weeks back. No entries over Christmas, we know they won't rush her or risk her again as she owes them nothing.

    The only Mullins horse I can see possibly posing a threat is Limini. After all she beat AJ before Cheltenham last season convincingly. I'll admit I got carried away with that run and advocated for her to be given a go in the CH but in hindsight it probably wasn't AJ's true running. You only have to go back to Mullins quotes afterwards on his shock and surprise and his constant in his words questioning of "whether AJ ran to form". Unlike VVM she probably does have more to come but AJ has gone on and improved plenty this year.

    It's very hard to write off Willie Mullins such is his record with Mares. Personally I see the race as being:

    1st - Apples Jade
    2nd - Mullins runner
    3rd - ??

    So for me any other play in the race would be for place terms only. The likely Mullins runners are too short for me with this in mind.

    The only horse that makes a little appeal is Kayf Grace 33/1 (1/5 odds)
    She won the Aintree Mares Bumper in 2016 beating the likes of Augusta Kate, Shattered Love and La Bague Au Roi. She then won her novice hurdle before suffering an injury in February which forced her to miss the rest of the season when she was a 10/1 shot for the Mares Novice. Back again this year she was well beat but far too keen on seasonal debut and probably needed the run at Ascot in what was a decent race. I was impressed with her win at Kempton yesterday in the last. A very confident ride she had more in hand than the winning distance suggested and there was 8 lengths ahead of 3rd. Her jumping was what impressed me most. She's always been really well regarded by Henderson. Soft ground might show her at her best though.

    1pt EW at 33/1 would return a 5.6pt profit to place which doesn't jump out at me but interested to see if anyone else likes her?

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