Pertemps Final 2018

[luisgarciaisgod]

I'm on Calett Mad for both here and the AB. Personally would prefer him to go the Potato race but he comes here I'll be on Enniscoffey Oscar for the AB and Bags Groove for this if CM goes the other way

[Istabraq]

The fair prices would suggest potato race more likely, nothing but £2 to lay at 65 on the Pertemps....

[Faugheen_Machine]

The fair prices would suggest potato race more likely, nothing but £2 to lay at 65 on the Pertemps....

Daryl isn't riding him if he does go potato race.

[Folski]

Despite the French bred record, I can't get away from Delta Work in this.

[doctorwu]

Despite the French bred record, I can't get away from Delta Work in this.

Very eye-catching run behind Total Recall. Thats a massive stat so I just can't have him.

[Kevloaf]

Very eye-catching run behind Total Recall. Thats a massive stat so I just can't have him.

Doc, as a man who follows the trends and stats.... do you follow them all strictly, do you pay more attention to some than others?

Does it help you narrow the field and then you pick from there or do you just keep going until you have one left?


I've never thought to actually go BACK and check how well the "best trend fit" for every horse has done.... I think we should do that after the festival this year

[doctorwu]

Hi Kev,
I stick to the strong trends blindly. Ive done all the 1st two days handicaps/4 miler strong trends. They have to be at least 90% over a decent period.
Some of the less strong trends I'll go back and revisit. Take Vintage Clouds in the Ultima (he's 141 so literally misses out on the 142 mark) but ill look at that horse again as Gault could easily say 141 next year if he wins and no one would bat an eyelid.
Only 2 horses met every trend for the Ultima this year: singlefarmpayment and Final Nudge, and he's in the Kim Muir. The others that just failed at the final hurdle were: Knight of Noir, Gold Present, and I think Mia's Storm??
Take Keepers Hill in the 4miler, he won over 2.7m 214yds, strictly not 3 miles as its 60 odd yards short so do you put it in??? you have to go back to that horse as he fitted every other trend. Keeper Hill met most trends in the Ultima as well. He goes 4miler we think?

We had only 1 winner last year(20s) and 3 placed horses at decent odds so it was still profitable. One of our pals formulated a system on his laptop which makes it easier to get them done in a reasonable timeframe. Then we chat about the outcomes and give our positives/negatives. We'll sit down Monday afternoon and go over the handicaps for Thursday/friday.

[doctorwu]

Kev,
Just to add, we start with the strongest trend and gradually whittle the field down. Its not everyones cup of tea, but its been profitable over the years for us. Against that, I backed Tiger Roll & Tully East last year and neither fitted all the trends. I just really fancied them both.

[charlie]

I have done a statistical analysis of every race for the last three years and it has definitely proven profitable. I don't follow it blindly, nor do I let it completely guide my decision making, but it's interesting.

[kinloch brae]

Pleased to see Russell on Delta Work. Hopefully, the ground is not the difference between placing and winning.

[charlie]

I like Sort It Out @ 12's. Having been off for a year and a half he has raced over fences against the likes of Petit Mouchoir, Footpad and Al Boum Photo, where he failed to impress on each occasion. He then ran in the Pertemps Network Group Handicap Hurdle where he kept on well to finish 3rd. I was impressed with the way he ran and he looked to enjoy reverting back to hurdles and stepping up in trip. This race produced both pertemps winners in the last two year in Presenting Percy (4th) and Mall Dini (3rd). I like this and he showed real promise before his injury finishing 2nd in the County Handicap Hurdle and then beating subsequent Galway Hurdle winner Clondaw Warrior who is now rated 155. People talk about McManus plot jobs and I think this could potentially be one of them. Hasn't crept under the radar by any means but you can still get 12's and i think he will shorten on the day.

Liking this more and more. Anyone else on Sort It Out?

[Westo97]

The Louis Vac form looks very good to me for this race, I'll take Forza Milan on the hope it handles the ground better than I suspect Louis Vac will.
At big prices though, I got 40s on Dadsintrouble last night and if the heavy ground race at Exeter has not left its mark, then I think it well out runs its price here. Last seasons handicap hurdle form would surely have it much shorter in the betting. Back hurdling after aborted chase campaign, it looked the winner on its return at Exeter before it emptied on the energy sapping ground that was very bad that day. I can see it running well off this mark which is up around last seasons mark when ran career best 3rd behind Fountains Windfall at Aintree.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Liking this more and more. Anyone else on Sort It Out?

I noticed some money coming for A Great View, so JP looking mob handed with horses that seem to have chances, I think a tricast on his runners, 4 I think, is warranted, the payout could easily be 4 figures

[mayo]

I noticed some money coming for A Great View, so JP looking mob handed with horses that seem to have chances, I think a tricast on his runners, 4 I think, is warranted, the payout could easily be 4 figures

An alternative view

2:10 – Mine Now/Dadsintrouble The three Irish-trained JP McManus runners are just the type to be overbet at Cheltenham on the perception they are aimed at the meeting all season; that isn’t a great argument for backing a horse at the Festival when it applies to 90 per cent of the field! It might be better to take two big-priced darts. Mine Now beat Glenloe and A Great View on merit at Christmas, goes well fresh and the rain has come for him. Dadsintrouble is even darker but has some good form last spring at Aintree, shaped much better than the result last time and failed chasers have a decent record in the race.

[Scooby91]

I must be mad but I will follow my gut.
Thomas Campbell at 25/1 ew with 5 places off a whopping mark of 155. It makes no sense of this mark but his course and distance form, big field handicao experiance and his decent cruising speed lead me to believe he's a decent chance here. Just a nagging feeling he will go very close.