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2017 Festival Winners

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  • #16
    Now for Wednesday from 2017

    Neptune Novice Hurdle
    Willoughby Court - 16/1 for JLT
    Neon Wolf - RIP
    Messire Des Obeaux

    RSA
    Might Bite -10/1 for Gold Cup
    Whisper - 33/1 for Gold Cup
    Bellshill - 66/1 for Gold Cup

    Coral Cup
    Supasundae
    Taquin De Seuil
    Who Dares Wins
    Monksland

    Champion Chase
    Special Tiara @ 25/1 for Champion Chase
    Fox Norton @ 14/1 for Champion Chase
    Sir Valentino @ 66/1 for Champion Chase

    Cross-Country
    Cause of Causes @ 7/1 for X-Country
    Bless The Wings @ 20/1 for X-Country
    Cantlow @ 20/1 for X-Country

    Fred Winter
    Flying Tiger
    Divin Bere
    Nietzsche
    Project Bluebook

    Champion Bumper
    Fayonagh - 7/2 for Mares Novice, 14/1 for Supreme, 16/1 for Ballymore
    Debuchet - 16/1 for ALL 3 Novice Hurdles
    Claimantakinforgan - 33/1 for Supreme, 25/1 for Albert B (no quote for Ballymore...)


    The ones that interest me are:

    Willoughby Court for the JLT @ 16/1 - if her takes to fences, there are worse 16/1 bets out there.

    Bellshill @ 66/1 - once touted as the better horse than Yorkhill - worth a nibble EW?

    Cause of Causes @ 7/1 - No explanation needed...

    Claimantakinforgan - 25/1 for AB - I backed him for this last year in the hope that he would go over hurdles. Mark Howard talked him up as a staying novice hurdler in last years book and performed OK in the bumpers - obviously wanting further than 2m.

    Comment


    • #17
      I remember that Bellshill/Yorkhill comparison so well! I think we know Cheltenham isn't his track though.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
        I remember that Bellshill/Yorkhill comparison so well! I think we know Cheltenham isn't his track though.
        Wow! If Kev can resist 0.5 pts EW on any 66/1 shot.... I must be miles off!

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Leman14 View Post
          Wow! If Kev can resist 0.5 pts EW on any 66/1 shot.... I must be miles off!
          Hahaha. What if he has 3 figure prices on the exchanges?

          I think someone made a good point that he might be a bit of a price on the day as you can't see any way he's the mount of ruby .... so in all seriousness that would be why I'm not in any rush to get this one covered at the moment ...

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
            I personally don't think Gigginstown will care enough about having a runner in the Champion Hurdle or stayers hurdle.... they only want Gold Cup horses, or winners....
            I'm sure somewhere in the past Giggs said their aim was to have a runner in every festival race (except bumper)...

            Comment


            • #21
              Now on to Thursday from 2017...

              JLT Novices Chase
              Yorkhill - 12/1 Champion Hurdle, 8/1 Ryanair, 8/1 Gold Cup
              Top Notch - 16/1 for Ryanair
              Disko - 20/1 for Ryanair, 33/1 for Gold Cup

              Pertemps
              Presenting Percy - 33/1 for RSA, 33/1 for 4-Miler, 33/1 for Stayers
              Barney Dwan
              Jury Duty
              The Tourard Man

              Ryanair Chase
              Un De Sceaux @ 13/2 for Ryanair
              Sub Lieutenant @ 20/1 for Ryanair
              Aso

              Stayers Hurdle
              Nichols Canyon @ 7/1
              Lil Rockerfeller @ 20/1
              Unowhatimeanharry @ 8/1

              The Plate
              Road To Respect @ 25/1 for Gold Cup
              Baron Alco
              Bouvreuil
              Thomas Crapper

              Mares Novice Hurdle
              Let's Dance - 11/1 for Mares Hurdle
              Barra
              Dusky Legend

              Kim Muir
              Domesday Book
              Pendra
              Premier Bond
              Potters Legend


              Not sure on target for many, but the standout "value" seems to be:

              Un De Sceaux @ 13/2 to repeat the Ryanair victory

              Lil Rockerfeller @ 20/1 - beat UNWIMH and not far behind NC, but nearly 3 times the odds and room for improvement

              Let's Dance @ 11/1 - looked better at the intermediate trip than over 2m, but still won Mares Novice comfortably. (And Archie made a positive comment - which is always a good pointer )

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                I'm sure somewhere in the past Giggs said their aim was to have a runner in every festival race (except bumper)...
                Haven't ever seen/heard that... but I can certainly believe it.

                IF I had to choose another race, it certainly wouldn't be the CH though... stayerrrr

                Comment


                • #23
                  Friday Winners/Placed Horses from 2017

                  Triumph
                  Defi Du Seuil - 8/1 for Champion Hurdle
                  Mega Fortune - RIP
                  Bapaume -

                  County Hurdle
                  Arctic Fire - 33/1 for Champion Hurdle
                  L'ami Serge - 20/1 for Stayers Hurdle
                  Ozzie The Oscar
                  Air Horse One
                  Winter Escape
                  Ivanovich Gorbatov

                  Albert Bartlett
                  Penhill - 14/1 for Stayers
                  Monalee - 16/1 for RSA and 20/1 for 4-miler
                  Wholestone - 20/1 Stayers, 25/1 RSA, 33/1 4-Miler

                  Gold Cup
                  Sizing John - 6/1 for Gold Cup
                  Minella Rocco - 25/1 for Gold Cup
                  Native River - 12/1 for Gold Cup

                  Foxhunter
                  Pacha Du Polder - 12/1 for Foxhunter
                  Wonderful Charm - 8/1 for Foxhunter
                  Barel Of Laughs

                  Martin Pipe
                  Champagne Classic
                  Verni
                  Runfordave
                  Coo Star Sivola

                  Grand Annual
                  Rock The World
                  Gardefort
                  Theinval
                  Dandridge

                  There is less from this bunch that stands out for me, but:

                  Arctic Fire @ 33/1 for Champion Hurdle. IF Faugheen doesn't make it, he has a 2nd in a Champ Hurdle to his name and won the County off of top weight with NO prep run. I'm not saying that he'll win BUT - great value.

                  Monalee - my only worry here would be which race (10/1 with WH Any Race if you wanted to take the worry out)

                  Does anyone have any knowledge/thoughts about some of the Handicap Horses??

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Another strand of looking at last season's winners is to consider the date when they started their Cheltenham campaign. Probably only worth considering the novice and open championship races as the rest wouldn't generally have had a campaign geared towards Cheltenham and what we have is:
                    Novice Hurdles
                    Labaik 13 October
                    Willioughby Court 3 November
                    Defi Du Seuil 15 October
                    Penhill 4 May

                    Novice Chases
                    Altior 21 November
                    Might Bite 6 November
                    Yorkhill 17 December

                    Hurdle Championships
                    Buveur D'Air 17 December
                    Nichols Canyon 20 November

                    Chase Championships
                    Special Tiara 13 November
                    Un De Sceaux 3 December
                    Sizing John 27 December

                    Bumper
                    Fayonagh (had a run on 6 May but effectively) 12 November

                    Clearly, apart from the novice hurdlers, the general rule (as you'd expect) was that they wouldn't be out until November at the earliest. Looking at the novice hurdlers, you have:
                    Labaik who is a thorough rogue and should have been banned after his third misdemeanour. The second in the race, Melon, had his first run on 29 January.
                    Penhill who was bought as a dual purpose horse and had a campaign pattern of 2 races then an approx 2 month break all through the season.
                    Willoughby Court who had a text-book campaign.
                    Defi Du Seuil who is apparently the only one to start early but with Cheltenham still in mind.

                    Food for thought for those who are on horses who have already started their season.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Very interesting indeed Archie!

                      2 runs already for death duty
                      Samcro out in the same race labaik was ...

                      DDS had a really aggressive campaign, I wonder if Gumball will be the same?

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Nice one for doing that Leman.

                        I like Arctic Fire at a price, but only if Faugheen doesn't make it.

                        I may be on my own here, but Un De Sceaux doesn't currently appeal to me at that price, the Ryanair last year was incredibly weak IMO, you only have to look at the form of the horses after the race that finished behind him, they've all struggled massively, in most cases they've been readily hammered by other horses. Obviously I fully expect the market to fall to pieces, so many horses currently in the betting won't make the race, but I think by what has been said so far one of either Douvan or Min will turn up in this race, Yorkhill is no certainty to miss this race either though being with WPM it is highly unlikely he will have 3 of his big horses running in one race, but 2 is certainly a possibility. Fox Norton has been touted as heading for the Champion Chase yet remains strong in the betting for this, suggesting a re-route could well happen. I don't think Road To Respect will go for the Gold Cup and he too looks a strong contender for this. Top Notch runs in this if the words of Nicky Henderson are to be believed (from his stable tour on ATR), again, no push over, and the extra furlong will help from his Novice run at the festival this year. There are many others in behind who could cause Un De Sceaux a head ache as well that 13/2 or even worse 4/1, is not a price I currently view as value.

                        If Fox Norton and no RR runner turn up, then 13/2 will obviously look very big indeed!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Just looking at the novice chase championships, where you'd expect a properly planned campaign, the last 6 winners started on the following dates:
                          Arkle
                          Altior 21/11
                          Douvan 22/11
                          UDS 27/11
                          Western Warhorse 17/11 (hurdle, first chase 26/12)
                          Simonsig 21/12
                          Sprinter Sacre 9/12

                          JLT (Golden Miller)
                          Yorkhill 17/12
                          Black Hercules 14/12
                          Vautour 23/11
                          Taquin Du Seuil 29/10
                          Benefficient 22/9
                          Sir Des Champs 3/12

                          RSA
                          Might Bite 6/11
                          Blaklion 10/10
                          Don Poli 22/11
                          O'Faolain's Boy 21/12
                          Lord Windermere 11/11
                          Bobs Worth 25/11

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                            Nice one for doing that Leman.

                            I like Arctic Fire at a price, but only if Faugheen doesn't make it.

                            I may be on my own here, but Un De Sceaux doesn't currently appeal to me at that price, the Ryanair last year was incredibly weak IMO, you only have to look at the form of the horses after the race that finished behind him, they've all struggled massively, in most cases they've been readily hammered by other horses. Obviously I fully expect the market to fall to pieces, so many horses currently in the betting won't make the race, but I think by what has been said so far one of either Douvan or Min will turn up in this race, Yorkhill is no certainty to miss this race either though being with WPM it is highly unlikely he will have 3 of his big horses running in one race, but 2 is certainly a possibility. Fox Norton has been touted as heading for the Champion Chase yet remains strong in the betting for this, suggesting a re-route could well happen. I don't think Road To Respect will go for the Gold Cup and he too looks a strong contender for this. Top Notch runs in this if the words of Nicky Henderson are to be believed (from his stable tour on ATR), again, no push over, and the extra furlong will help from his Novice run at the festival this year. There are many others in behind who could cause Un De Sceaux a head ache as well that 13/2 or even worse 4/1, is not a price I currently view as value.

                            If Fox Norton and no RR runner turn up, then 13/2 will obviously look very big indeed!
                            Completely agree COD

                            Taking perceived value at this stage of the season always requires guesswork and some ifs, buts and maybes..

                            If we assume that all the intended runners make it to Cheltenham fighting fit (which we know won't be the case unfortunately), then I would rather have the majority of my AP money on horses where I have (or think I have with a degree of certainty) the right race. At least then, if they turn up at the festival, I get a run for my money.

                            I've taken some 33's on Arctic Fire, not because I hope that Faugheen doesn't make it, but because he hasn't been seen for 2 years and AF represents much better value. (221 at Cheltenham)
                            If he has a decent prep and lines up in the CH field, he will have a solid EW chance in what doesn't look the strongest of fields - even this far out.

                            UDS will be aimed at the Ryanair (yes we know Mullins Bingo has some odd results) - but I would rather take the 13/2 on UDS for the Ryanair than try to figure out which race certain novices will run in.
                            (UDS is 1121 at the track and has only been beaten by Sprinter Sacre)

                            Knowing my luck, UDS will end up in the Champion Chase, Yorkhill the Ryanair and Douvan in the Gold Cup with Min going for the Grand Annual after a poor/interrupted prep!!

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Leman14 View Post
                              Wow! If Kev can resist 0.5 pts EW on any 66/1 shot.... I must be miles off!
                              Never mind a nibble and 0.5 points , I've had a Banquet on Bellshill !! , L.o.l . might be my Royal vacation of next years fez.!

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
                                Never mind a nibble and 0.5 points , I've had a Banquet on Bellshill !! , L.o.l . might be my Royal vacation of next years fez.!
                                Not going to knock a 66/1.


                                For those that haven't, I've bumped jono's work from the 2016 festival and how the form worked out, as I feel its similar to what we're talking about here

                                Reflecting on the 2020 Cheltenham Festival and building up towards 2021. Threads on all major races including Gold Cup, Queen Mother and Champion Hurdle. Share early Cheltenham Festival Tips and check out our preview night reports.


                                Just watched Un De Sceaux and and that was super impressive. 13/2 is a beautiful play for me!

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